NEWSWIRE: 8/27/18
- Roughly 3.5 million Americans relocated for a new job last year, down 10% from 2015. Aside from economic drivers, experts also cite changing family ties as a major factor; increasingly, parents seek their kids’ input when planning a move, even giving them veto power. (The Wall Street Journal)
- NH: As we have pointed out elsewhere (see: "Declining Business Dynamism: A Visual Guide"), job churn and job reallocation rates have been on an accelerating downward trend for roughly thirty years--and median employee tenure has been rising in most age brackets. So let's start with the fact that people simply aren't switching jobs as often. In addition, when they do switch jobs, they are less likely to accept a new job that requires relocation. This is happening for a variety of reasons. The rise of two-earner households makes it harder for one earner to drag the rest of the family along with him (or her). Working-age families want to remain near their parents (Boomers and Silent), who are more often themselves "aging in place" nearby. Xer parents are much more solicitous of the views of their children, who often want to stay with the same school and friends. (When Xers were kids, they had no say--when Dad said let's go, everyone just went.) Moving for a job is also riskier than it used to be, because fewer employers can offer many guarantees about how long the new job will last--and many are cutting back on relocation benefits. Result: It's not just relocation for the sake of a job that is down. Relocation for any reason is down. The rate has declined by nearly half since the Eisenhower years--and it has declined the most for young adults. The supposedly staid and conformist American High (1) was actually an era in which American families manifested much greater geographic dynamism than they do today--a point echoed in Tyler Cowen's recent book, The Complacent Class.
- Home designers are overhauling their “aging in place” options to draw Boomers with an eye for style. Forget plastic grab bars and clunky doorknobs; the sleek amenities on offer look more like they came from a spa than a hospital. (The Wall Street Journal)
- NH: Thanks to their prodigious numbers and their widening wealth inequality by cohort (especially among Americans born in the late 1950s), high-end Boomers offer a vast and expanding opportunity to firms that sell an upmarket home experience. But, because they're Boomers, these seniors won't just buy anything expensive. They will shun the plastic and showy and meretricious and merely efficient for belongings that reflect higher values and a more authentic lifestyle. They want to be surrounded by the traditional, the unique, the elegant and fashionable, the timeless and meaningful. Don't give these gadgets the "aging in place" label. Call them instead part of a "living in place" lifestyle. Yes, the home needs to be functional to seniors with ADLs--but it must look like it was built as a drawing room for the Medicis. These devices would fit perfectly into a gallery designed by (Boomer) Gary Friedman, CEO of RH, whose company is finding a perfect stride serving this market.
- Fully 13% of Millennials got their first job at age 20 or older, the highest share of any generation. Millennials don’t mind delaying the onset of their careers if it means getting that extra degree or credential that they believe will increase their future earning potential. (CreditLoan.com)
- Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni believes that demographic aging will be a boon to the economy through at least the next year. Key to the equation are Boomers and Millennials, whose minimalist tendencies (such as Boomers trading down to smaller homes and Millennials living with Mom and Dad) could prevent the economy from overheating. (CNBC)
- NH: A permabull like Yardeni always has a reason to be bullish--even if, perversely, he needs to point to trends that suppress the demand for goods and services. Heads he wins, tails you lose.
- Kelsey Grammer is considering a reboot of his ‘90s sitcom, Frasier—and Millennial men are excited. The key to this generation’s fandom may be the show’s unique take on the ideal man, according to one Millennial, who loves that Frasier “is allowed to simultaneously be sensitive and masculine without being a caricature of either.” (The Huffington Post)
- NH: First of all, Boomers are destined to exert an outsized role in shaping our culture at an age when prior generations of seniors had long been eclipsed by the pop culture of the young. It's not just Frasier that is coming back, but also "Murphy Brown" and "Roseanne" (OK, she came and went), along with a huge shift in cinema toward older protagonists (see: "The Silver-Haired Screen"). And part of the reason we can't get rid of Boomers is that Millennials get along with their parents and generally enjoy listening to what they have to say (see: "The Aging of Aquarius"). Additionally, contrary to stereotype, Millennials like really smart shows that feature a large vocabulary and display cultural and scientific erudition. That's why Millennials are disproportionate subscribers to the WSJ and The Economist--and why The Big Bang Theory was such a tremendous hit. Who but Frasier routinely discusses the rise of classical opera or types of rococo divans on a sitcom? Finally, Frasier's male persona--sophisticated, upbeat, yet decidedly non-macho--is a delight for Millennial guys looking for plausible role models. It also helps, for guys at least, that he pays no attention to political correctness. (Indeed, in real life Kelsey Grammer is a Republican, a rare red dot in Hollywood's blue sea.)
- Fully 49% of Americans would "never buy" a level-5 self-driving car, up from 30% just two years ago. In the wake of recent accidents, public distrust of autonomous tech has deepened in every age group, with more people rejecting not only fully self-driving vehicles but also any tech beyond basic driver-assist features. (Cox Automotive)
- NH: Ominously, a majority said they would oppose testing in their own hometown. A full 84% would want the option to drive if they were to own a fully self-driving car. I guess that means it better have a steering wheel. (Are you listening, Google/Waymo or GM/Cruise?) We have always said that general public use of totally self-driving autos was going to happen much later than Silicon Valley and Detroit have been suggesting. A couple of years? More like a couple of decades. (See: "Have Autonomous Vehicles Hit a Roadblock?")
- Fully 77% of 28- to 37-year-olds say they occasionally lose sleep because of stress, the highest share of any age group. What exactly is keeping Americans up at night? While most age groups list “relationships” as their main source of worry, 54- to 63-year-olds (comprising many low-SES, late-wave Boomers) opt for “money.” (Bankrate)
- Due to the rising prevalence of breastfeeding, baby formula companies are turning to a new moneymaker: toddler formula. However, the same Millennial mothers who are attracted to the health benefits of breastfeeding likely know that toddlers can get all the nutrients they need from a whole foods diet. (The Huffington Post)
- NH: More ashes and sackcloth for the corporate titans selling staples to young moms. Births are down. The rate of disposable diaper use is down (a blow to P&G, Unilever, and Kimberly-Clark: See: "Diaper Sales Take a Dive"). And now the rate of formula use is down (a blow to Nestle, Danone, Mead Johnson, and Abbott). So what's going on with formula? There is a settled consensus among nutritionists and pediatricians that mother's milk is superior to formula for young infants--and that switching to mother's milk globally would save nearly a million lives annually. Advertising the benefits of formula is therefore carefully restricted for infants under 9 months by international agreements under W.H.O. For older infants, however, there are fewer restrictions. And the major producers have recently upped their formula sales by going after this older "toddler" market (age 9 months to 2 years) and telling moms that their sugar-laden "toddler formula" is a healthy supplement to solid food. Most scientists disagree with these claims. Despite the (ultimately unsuccessful) efforts by the Trump administration to bully the U.N. into backing off on stricter standards for toddlers, governments are likely to get tougher, not easier, on regulating toddler formula. With populism rising, most political leaders around the world get a lot more votes by protecting local mothers than by bolstering the profits of foreign multinationals.
- A new piece contends that the formula for reality TV today consists of “less drama and a lot more heart.” While the article credits the success of recent shows like NBC’s Making It and Netflix’s Nailed It! to the popularity of The Great British Bake Off, in reality the shift to kinder, gentler TV has been happening for years across all kinds of programming. (The Economist)
- NH: Fifteen years ago, when Xers still comprised the core young-adult audience, reality TV showcased grim, high-stakes competition that left winners exultant and losers in tears. ("You're fired," growled Donald Trump, to the delight of millions of viewers.) That paradigm no longer works for Millennials, who clearly want something friendlier, happier, clubbier--a bit more, you might say, like Barney and Friends. In late-night shows, we first noticed this "niceness" trend with the unexpected popularity of Jimmy Fallon's Tonight Show. (See: "All Aboard the Smile Train.") Last year, a surprise reality hit among U.S. Millennials was Terrace House, a Japanese show featured by Netflix about young adults who are generally polite to each other and rarely raise their voices. Wow, that's an original concept.
- Bearded Millennials are reportedly driving a downturn in razor sales. Much to the dismay of CPG companies like P&G, scruffy facial hair that might have once been judged as lazy is now seen as “laid-back” and “authentic.” (CNN)
DID YOU KNOW?
Roommates: Not Just for the Young. Boomers may be well into their golden years, but increasingly, they don’t live like it. A soon-to-be-released AARP report reveals the share of Americans age 50 and older who live in a “shared household" has risen dramatically in recent years. Last year, 1.9 million U.S. households headed by someone age 50 or older included a nonrelative roommate, housemate, or boarder. What’s going on? Some seniors are simply in search of friendly companionship. Others are motivated by finances—like 71-year-old Rika Mead, who didn’t want to give up her dream home after her divorce. As it turns out, the problems often encountered by roommates persist even into old age. Colorado resident Kathy Ryan, 64, says she recently had to kick out a housemate who, among other things, hoarded possessions and wasted water. But many, like Sharon Kha and Deborah Knox, have embraced their new reality. In typical Boomer fashion, the pair even rebranded their living arrangement—referring to each other not as roommates but rather as “POSSSLQs,” short for “People of Similar Sensibilities Sharing Living Quarters.”
