In the wake of the deeply disappointing Helsinki summit, where President Trump appeared cowed by his Russian counterpart, and the totally expected, sanctions-focused Congressional push-back, it's fair to ask: where is the "U.S.-Russia road" heading?
- Toward military conflict? No. Moscow and Washington are not fated to fight. Red-lines have been drawn by both countries, and diplomatic and military communications remain robust despite the tensions.
- What about renewed cooperation? As unlikely as this seems in the current environment, progress is still possible in selected areas where mutual advantage can be gained. Like where?
Three areas stand out:
- Arms control, especially an extension of the New Start Treaty: President Putin has already indicated his desire to extend the treaty for five years. "New Start" caps deployed nuclear warheads of the two sides, but it expires in 2021. Trump has balked at the Putin suggestion, despite nudges by the president's national security team to move forward, largely because the Treaty was negotiated by his predecessor.
- Syria, in light of the apparent Assad victory in the nightmarish, seven-year civil war: While read-outs from the Trump-Putin Helsinki one-on-one remain shrouded in secrecy, it does seem clear that the two leaders cobbled together an understanding to protect Israel's security interests on the Golan Heights; and it appears to give Bibi Netanyahu, who played a central role in reaching this understanding, flexibility to attack Iranian assets in Syria should they pose a direct threat to Israel.
- But more can be done, despite Russia's flaunting of international norms on targeting of civilians - like Russia acknowledging U.S. interests east of the Euphrates and Washington working with Russia on a "Geneva-style" political settlement.
- Finally, and intriguingly, Iran: It's no secret that at least one of the reasons Trump has appeared so eager to court Putin was a desire by the president to use his Russian counterpart to wean Iran away from mischief in the Middle East. Trump may get his chance in 2019. One of this country's foremost experts on dealing with this part of the globe, Ambassador Dennis Ross, recently penned an article that speculated on Putin playing an "arbiter" role between Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.
- The gist? Tehran, feeling both economic and domestic political pressure by year's end, offers a face-saving nuclear deal through Putin. Trump portrays this as an "incredible win."
- As Ross concludes in his article, "Iran's history suggests they will go for it."
The question is whether the dust-up over continuing Russian cyber intrusions in the U.S. electoral process, coupled with the strong Congressional blow-back, will preclude any cooperation in the three areas highlighted above. In a nutshell, it will, at least over the near-term.
- But recall, both Nixon and Reagan negotiated major arms control treaties while the two countries were engaged in vicious proxy wars against each other around the globe.
- Nixon, in particular, kept his negotiators at the SALT I table even while Soviet advisors, and North Vietnamese with Soviet weapons, were killing American soldiers, Marines, and aviators in Vietnam.
President Trump is determined to forge a working relationship with his Russian counterpart; should Moscow cyber and influence operations abate - a big if - and the two leaders meet again in 2019, as Trump has pledged, they can do far worse than to agree to move forward on some of the areas above. Both Nixon and Reagan would be familiar with the work plan.
