Its not a surprise that Macau comps get a lot tougher in 2H 2010. What may be a surprise is that two-year comps have not really accelerated in recent months despite the big headlines.
Macau has been gangbusters since August of last year and the trend line has been upward sloping. Of course, the first half of 2009 was a disaster so the comps have been quite easy and will continue to be through June.
Given the volatility in the one year comps, we thought it would be instructive to look at the revenue change on a two year basis. Here the recent monthly revenues for both VIP and Mass still look impressive on an absolute basis – Mass up 30% and VIP up almost 50% in February. However, the February 2-yr comp for Mass is actually at the low end of the range while VIP is in the middle. The 2-month moving average line is not upward sloping either. So has Macau growth accelerated in recent months or just held steady? It depends on your perspective.
Conclusion: comps matter. The question is will the sequential slowdown in growth in 2H 2010 impact investor sentiment?