MTCH
As a reminder, we believe MTCH already had 2Q18 in the bag as of the 1Q18 print since it was already pacing toward 2Q consensus revenue estimates with its existing sub base (see deck for context). Further, MTCH reports subs in quarterly averages, so it may have ended 1Q18 with the ~200K sub adds it guided it for 2Q18 given its strength in 1Q net adds. Our new MTCH tracker, which we're testing live for the for the first time (back test below), suggests net adds are not only growing on y/y basis but accelerating. However, 3Q is off to a relatively soft start, but keep in mind that MTCH's guided sub growth trajectory for the remainder of the year suggests sub adds will be down roughly 50% y/y in 2H18, so we're not too concerned about its guide for 3Q net adds; especially considering the aforementioned spillover effect from 2Q sub gains. As it relates to MTCH's 2018 guidance, we're less concerned about FX-related pressure since it reported later into 1Q than both TWTR and FB, so the spike in USD is likely already factored into its 2018 guidance.
2018 BEST IDEA DECKS & REPLAYS
- MTCH | BEST IDEA LONG | 6/11/2018 | CLICK HERE
See the deck & replay above for supporting detail/analysis on our long thesis. Let us know if you have any questions or would like to discuss further.
