What would be a big catalyst for a Credit Cycle (*hint, The Cycle #slowing)? I can tell you what the catalyst wasn’t:
A) The USA being in a record 8 straight quarters of year-over-year growth #accelerating, which started with
On A), anyone with an 11th grade education (who wasn’t bearish on US Growth for the last 1-2 years) can readily show you the 8 consecutive quarters of economic growth accelerating.
On B), The Shanghai Accord, is now 2.5 years old and it warrants a refresher.
As you can see in our Chart of The Day, the art of the deal was very straightforward:
Did the largest central market planning event in Chinese history matter to the subsequent “globally synchronized recovery?” Uh… yes. Big time. And that, my data-dependent-rate-of-change friends, is why we have #GlobalDivergences (slowing) in 2018.