CNY DRIVES ANOTHER BIG MONTH

The details are in. In this post, we analyze the Macau properties' February performance.

As we already know from the press reports, total table revenues were HK$12.4 billion, up 73% y-o-y, higher than our estimate of HK$11.0-11.5 billion.  As can be seen from the data, some of the better than expected revenue related to higher VIP hold percentage since VIP revenues were up 90% but volume was up 67%.  Higher Direct VIP play could explain part of it as it gets included in revenues but not in the volume numbers.  The comparison was pretty easy as it will be through June.  Table revenues in February of 2009 declined 17% and did not contain the Chinese New Year celebration.

In terms of company specific insights, Wynn had a great VIP month but its Mass business lagged again, up only 7% yoy vs the Mass market up 38%.  LVS lost share sequentially in both VIP and Mass.  Possibly as a result of its aggressive junket pricing, SJM increased share considerably in both VIP volume and revenue.

 

Y-o-Y Table Revenue Observations:

LVS table revenues increased 38% with most of the growth coming from a 66% increase in VIP revenues and 16% growth in Mass

  • Sands was up 66%, driven by a 92% increase in VIP and 31% growth in Mass
    • VIP growth was almost entire driven by easy hold comparisons.  Junket rolling chip was only up 3%.  Sands suffered weak hold in Feb 2009 of around 2%, assuming 12% direct play.  If we assume 12% of total VIP play was direct in Feb '10, this implies hold of 3.65% 
  • Venetian was only up 16%, with VIP and Mass both up 16%
    • Junket VIP RC increased 21%
  • Four Seasons was up 172% y-o-y entirely driven by 444% VIP growth with Mass declining 25% 
    • Junket VIP RC more than doubled to to $531MM but was down sequentially from $857MM in January as well as below record results of $1.3BN in December. 
    • Over the last two quarters, FS has averaged $355MM of direct VIP play per month.  Assuming similar results in Feb, hold would be around 2.9%

Wynn table revenues were up 55%, almost entirely driven by a 69% increase in VIP, while Mass revenues were only up 7%

  • Junket RC increased by a massive 83%
  • Assuming 12% direct RC play in both months, Wynn's hold rate was declined from 3.3% lsat year to 3.0% in Feb 2010

Crown table revenues grew 172%, with most of the growth fueled by 584% growth in Mass and 139% growth in VIP

  • Altira was up 22%, with VIP up 26% while Mass declined 21%
    • VIP RC was down 1%, however, after quarters of bad luck, Altira finally held well, thus driving better VIP revenues.  We estimated that Feb 09 hold was 2.6% compared to 3.3% in Feb 2010.
  • CoD table revenue decreased 24% sequentially, due to a 34% decline in VIP win which was only partly offset by an increase in Mass
    • Mass ramped 17% m-o-m to $36MM
    • Junket VIP RC declined 9% sequentially
    • If we assume 20% direct play at CoD (in line with what MPEL said on their earnings call), then total VIP RC would be $3.2BN compared to $3.5BN in January, using the same assumption.  However, hold in January was high at 3.7%, while February hold was a little light at 2.6%

SJM continued its hot streak, with table revenues up 87%

  • Mass was up 42% and VIP was up 121%
  • As we wrote about on several occasions, we believe SJM is being very aggressive on junket pricing

Galaxy table revenue was up 35%, driven by a 42% increase in VIP win, while Mass declined 7% increase

  • Starworld's table revenue was up 65%, driven entirely by 73% growth in VIP revenues. Mass only increased 1% y-o-y

MGM table revenue was up 148%

  • Mass revenue growth was 38%, while VIP grew 221%
  • Before you get too excited about the growth in VIP revenues, we would caution that Junket VIP RC was up 27% y-o-y, but the hold in Feb 09 was an anemic 1.5% while Feb 2010 hold is high at around 3.3% (assuming 15% direct VIP play)

Market Share:

LVS share dropped 160bps sequentially to 19.6%, with most of the share loss coming from VIP

  • LVS's share of VIP revenues decreased to 17.2% from 19% in Jan, while Mass fell to 26.6% from 27.3% in Jan
  • Sands lost 30bps, dropping to 6.8% sequentially
  • Venetian lost 50bps to 10.9% sequentially while FS share dropped 80bps to 1.9%
  • After SJM, LVS commanded the second highest share of the Mass market with 26.6%, followed by Crown at 10%

WYNN's was a big share gainer this month, increasing market share to 14.5% from 12.9% in January

  • Wynn's share gain was driven by VIP growth, which increased Wynn's share of the VIP market to 16.5% from 14.3%
  • On a RC basis, WYNN's market share of 15.7% is second only to SJM which commanded 34% of RC share in Febraury.  This is very impressive since Wynn's market share at one property surpasses that of LVS's 3 properties combined and Crown's two properties.

Crown's market share fell by 2.3% to 13.6% in February

  • All of the share loss was in VIP market share which declined by 3.5% sequentially to 14.8%
  • Crown's Mass market share increased by 1.5% to 10% - with CoD garnering 8.8% market share, on par with Wynn

SJM's share increased to 32.3% from 30.9% in January

  • Most of the share gain came from a 2.2% sequential increase in VIP share to 28.8%
  • RC share also increased by 260 bps to 34%

Galaxy's share increased slightly to 11% from 10.4% last month

  • Starworld's market share was flat at 8.4%
  • Galaxy's share of Mass fell to 4.3% from 5.7% in January but was offset by a 1.1% gain in VIP share to 13.3%

MGM's share increased by 30bps to 9%

Slot market commentary:

  • Slot win grew 28.5% y-o-y to $81MM
  • LVS's slot win grew across all 3 properties by 29% y-o-y to $26MM
  • Wynn slot revenues declined by 12% y-o-y to $16MM. They were the only concessionaire to experience a decrease in slot win
  • Melco's slot win grew 48% y-o-y.
  • MGM's slot win grew 65.4% y-o-y to $8MM

CNY DRIVES ANOTHER BIG MONTH - Macau Total Bac Rev Share

CNY DRIVES ANOTHER BIG MONTH - Macau MM Rev Share

CNY DRIVES ANOTHER BIG MONTH - Macau RC Turnover Share