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Italian equities (FTSE MIB) continue to make a series of lower-highs alongside economic data in the beleaguered nation.
Specifically, the MAY Industrial Orders print (-150 basis points to 4.9% year-over-year) was generally confirming of our #Quad3 forecast for the country in 2Q18E.
While that figure was somewhat offset by the +100bps acceleration to 5.0% YoY in backward-looking Industrial Sales, we think the forward-looking nature of the former indicator is more indicative of the broader trend in pan-Eurozone survey data.
All told, we reiterate our bearish bias on Italian equities and Eurozone equities at large – namely the banks, which have crashed -22.4% from their 1/29 YTD high.
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ACTIVE MACRO THEMES
Below is one of our macro team's current macro themes: