The Atlanta Fed's original GDP forecast for 2Q 2018 began at +4.71% QoQ SAAR and has been cut to 3.8%. Don't get too excited about GDP north or 3% just yet. Our research suggests that the Atlanta Fed's forecasts have an intra-quarter tracking error of ~250bps. In other words, after falling just 90 basis points from its original estimate of 4.71%, it's probable the estimate falls a lot further from here.
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