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Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale. Click here to learn more about the Early Look.

What gave us our initial edge was the fact that the multi-year trend of easing comparative base effects across the U.S., European, Japanese and Emerging Market economies culminated in the 4Q17/1Q18 timeframe. As the Chart of the Day below highlights, it’s been an increasing sucker’s bet to bet against what comparative base effects imply for growth and inflation in the forecast period.

CHART OF THE DAY: A Key Point About the U.S. Economy - Base Effects Matter More Now Than Ever

CHART OF THE DAY: A Key Point About the U.S. Economy - early look