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Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Director of Research Daryl Jones. Click here to learn more about the Early Look.

"Arguably the most differentiated forecast we have from a GIP Modeling perspective is our view that both economic growth and reported inflation are setting up to peak and roll here in 2H18E.

This view was incrementally confirmed by the decidedly mixed nature of the latest batch of economic releases – most notably highlighted by the juxtaposition between the MAY PCE data and the JUN ISM Manufacturing PMI and JUN University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data...

All told, mixed ≠ broad-based acceleration, which is what we saw out of the U.S. economy in every quarter from mid-to-late 2016 through 1Q18."

CHART OF THE DAY: USA Peak Cycle? - 2

CHART OF THE DAY: USA Peak Cycle? - early look