With the dust now settled on Turkey's election outcomes, it's clear that the march to authoritarian rule continues unabated. President Recep Erdogan's party, the AK, lost 7% in the election round last week; but its coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party, gained, ensuring Erdogan a clear domestic path to the strongest, most transformational Turkish leadership since Ataturk.

  • And what about relations with Erdogan's domestic opponents and his critics in the west? As one veteran Turkey observer said recently, "Erdogan has never been magnanimous in victory!"

So, what does this mean in particular for the U.S. and Europe?

  • First off, given the increasingly nationalistic tone of the Erdogan coalition, expect no compromises on any issue regarding the Kurds. Since the U.S. will likely continue to back the Syrian Kurds (our best defense against Iranian regional influence), Ankara-Washington tensions over this issue will linger - assuming SECDEF Jim Mattis, a strong supporter of Syria's Kurds, is not marginalized and Trump doesn't decide to pull back on our military support.   
  • Second, with the Turkish economy perilously balanced (lira plummeting, inflation in double digits, deficits off the charts), both the EU and the U.S. may have more leverage than they think! Turkey needs tourists, and they need investment.

Yet the most likely road ahead for Turkey and the west is....more of the same!

  • Besides Trump, the "three M's" (Prime Minister May, Chancellor Merkel, and President Macron) all called Erdogan to congratulate.  The president has made no secret of his respect for strong-man rule, Erdogan being only one example of many authoritarians whom Trump seems to admire. We are unlikely to push back at all on the Erdogan authoritarian trends - e.g., over press freedoms and judicial independence.  
    • Further, the EU is reluctant to press its advantages for fear (as Erdogan is only too eager to reinforce) that Turkey will unleash another wave of migrants into continental Europe, most of whom want to head to - Germany!  This, of course, is the last thing Angela wants or needs, to keep her fractious coalition together!

In the end, despite Turkey's NATO membership, Ankara under Erdogan has calculated that, unlike the Cold War "East vs. West" model, the Turks can have it both ways: sidle up to Moscow and enjoy the benefits of NATO's security umbrella at the same time. Nobody - least of all the U.S. or Germany - is inclined to force a change in this calculus.  

Bottom Line: we'll be living with the hedging strategy of Recep Tayyip Erdogan for at least the next five years, and likely far longer.