NEWSWIRE: 6/25/18

  • For the first time ever, deaths now outnumber births among whites in a majority of U.S. states. Declining birthrates have combined with the rising mortality rates among Boomers (whose ranks are getting winnowed by advancing age and lifestyle scourges like opioids) to trigger the demographic shrinking of "whites." (Applied Population Lab)
    • NH: This headline--repeated on news blogs across America--no doubt grabbed your attention. But it is literally untrue. The correct finding, reported in the underlying study, is that deaths exceed births among "non-Hispanic whites." Hispanic refers to ethnicity, and the vast majority of Hispanics regard themselves as "white" by race. No matter. The diversity-obsessed media are so used to this sleight of hand that by now all I can muster here is a bit of eye-rolling. So U.S. whites, strictly speaking, are still rising in number. Still, the study is worth some attention. In three states, interestingly, deaths now exceed birth among all races and ethnicities: West Virginia, Maine, and New Hampshire. As for the rest, some states have shown negative rates of natural increase among Non-Hispanic whites for many years: In California, West Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island, the rates have been in the red in almost every year since 1999. Note the following, though again note that "white" actually means "non-Hispanic white":

Deaths Now Outnumber Births Among Whites in Most States. NewsWire - whites births and deaths
Deaths Now Outnumber Births Among Whites in Most States. NewsWire - whites by state 

  • A majority of Americans (66%) oppose the Trump administration’s (since-reversed) policy of separating migrant families at the border—with Millennials expressing the greatest opposition (80%). While opinions fall along party lines (which explains the left-leaning Millennial Generation’s extreme opposition), Americans of all ages can find something to dislike about this policy. (Quinnipiac University)
    • NH: The family-separation story has been badly misreported by the media, making one wonder how well the public has been informed about this issue. In fact, the 1993 "Flores settlement" that requires the feds to release minors from custody dates back to the early days of the Clinton administration. As such, it has forced several successive administrations to separate minors from parents whenever authorities feel compelled to lock up the illegal immigrants pending trial. The problem became more acute during the last Obama years with the rising influx of children from Central America who often come without parents--and especially over the last year with Trump's AG Jeff Sessions' zero-tolerance policy of prosecuting all suspected illegal immigrants. Trump is wrong to imply that the Democrats "forced" him to separate families. But it is also true that the Flores settlement effectively blocks the feds from detaining children with the parent (so Trump's new policy may be illegal). And that in turn means that child removal is the only way an immigrant with a child can be detained at all--which is how both Obama and Trump got into this child-separation business. Congress could easily pass legislation overturning the Flores settlement. But the midterms are coming, and this is an issue that both parties prefer unsolved to rouse their partisan bases. 
  • Researchers suggest that as much as half of Bitcoin’s rise last year could have been the result of market manipulation. The fact that Bitcoin is not backed by any real asset makes its price movements utterly unpredictable and difficult to interpret. (University of Texas at Austin)
    • NH: Historically, few asset bubbles have been the result of sheer retail investor exuberance gone wild. Almost always, there are actors behind the scenes who manipulate the market and carefully "pump" retailer optimism at critical moments--sometimes incurring defaultable liabilities along the way. This is what happened with Bitcoin, according to the authors. Bitfinex (the main cryptocurrency exchange since the demise of Mt. Gox) seems to have been pushing Tether (a cryptocurrency that "pegs" Bitcoin to the U.S. dollar and is widely used by retail Bitcoin traders) into the market whenever Bitcoin's price is falling. Tether is supposedly "100% backed by fiat currency assets in our reserve account." But the authors point out that Tether does not guarantee convertibility--and could always escape accumulated liabilities by arranging for another "inside hack job." I reiterate: You gotta be crazy to be long this stuff.
  • Xer contributor Amy Gesenhues earns more than her husband—and is fine with it. She contrasts her indifference with the conflicted feelings of Millennial female breadwinners, many of whom say they would feel “tired” or “resentful” if they knew they would be shouldering their family’s financial load for the foreseeable future. (Salon)
    • NH: Yes, Amy's Gen-X perplexity at the the new Millennial resistance to gender-blind financial burden sharing is interesting. But even more interesting is the evidence behind this resistance itself, aptly summarized here by Millennial Ashley C. Ford and here in The New York Times by no less a skeptic than Stephanie Coontz. What the data show is that Millennials are less likely than Gen Xers or Boomers at the same age to prefer a two-income household or to believe that a family is better off if the wife or mother is in the workplace. Coontz attributes Hillary Clinton's less-than-impressive showing among white Millennials to their disinterest in seeing a woman hold high office. Coontz writes: "Overall, Americans aged 18 to 34 are less comfortable than their elders with the idea of women holding roles historically held by men." On some (but not all) of these indicators, Millennial men are leading the reversal:

Deaths Now Outnumber Births Among Whites in Most States. NewsWire - millennials and gender

  • Just 35% of adults under age 30 routinely tip 20% or more at restaurants, compared to 55% of the 65+. Before writing Millennials off as frugal, take note: A sizable chunk (27%) say they would pay higher sticker prices if it meant doing away with tipping. (CreditCards.com)
    • NH: Most surveys show that tipping is strongly correlated with wealth. So that's one reason why Millennials are poor tippers: Many of them can't afford to be generous. But there's another reason--one that points a bit more directly to their peer personality. Unlike older generations, Millennials tend to be uncomfortable with one-on-one bargaining. It seems so, well, judgmental and confrontational. Millennials prefer efficient, left-brained, one-size-fits-all solutions, like all-included price packages and the no-hassle one price. The "service included" bill (in Europe: "service compris") is already making big inroads in major U.S. cities.
  • Total spending on podcast ads soared 86% YoY in 2017. Facing trouble on all fronts, advertisers are searching desperately for the next big ad medium—even if it means pouring money into a niche market like podcasts. (Interactive Advertising Bureau/PricewaterhouseCoopers)
  • Fitbit shares recently jumped 15% in one day after the company launched a new fitness tracker designed for children. This device has the same step- and sleep-tracking function as the original Fitbit, and the resulting data can be shared with another account—all of which adds up to an easy sell for today’s protective parents. (CNBC)
    • NH: Going after kids is a great idea. Xer parents who have recorded each of their baby's breaths and heartbeats in the crib would no doubt love to see their kids embrace the QS (quantified self) movement, so long as they get to look over their kid's shoulder at the results. Unfortunately, this may not be enough to save Fitbit, a device-plus-app which now finds itself inside Google's and Apple's "kill zone." It may, however, help attract a takeover bid.
  • A new Dove campaign, called #DearFutureDads, champions greater access to paternity leave. Brands and employers are taking notice of the new hands-on Xer and Millennial approach to fatherhood. (The Drum)
  • Annual disability applications have plummeted to their lowest level since 2002. The decline could reflect everything from an improving economy (which pulls some marginally attached workers out of DI and into the workforce) to an aging population (in which individuals leave the program for Social Security and Medicare). (The New York Times)
    • NH: IMO, this is mostly about the improving economy and the "stealth" crackdown on DI fraud by the Social Security Administration. With steadfast method and courage, the SSA has been getting rid of the worst ALJs (administration law judges) who hear these cases--and educating the rest on proper eligibility protocol. Some SSA branch offices have been closed; approval rates have declined; and some of the biggest DI-benefit law firms have shrunk or gone out of business. With the economy speeding up, many of these DI applicants have been finding jobs. Demography, on the other hand, isn't yet helping much. The most DI-prone age bracket (age 56 to 65) now comprises the massive 1953 to 1962 birth cohorts. But after 1962, cohort size begins to drop. By the early 2020s, DI will definitely have the demographic wind at its back.

Deaths Now Outnumber Births Among Whites in Most States. NewsWire - SSA DI

  • Urban Outfitters, Free People, and Anthropologie have introduced layaway payment plans in hopes of attracting cash-strapped Millennials. Just what young adults need: another opportunity to fall into debt. (MarketWatch)
    • NH: This is a clever redefinition of the term. Back when Boomers were young adults, "layaway" meant making periodic payments into a store account before taking the item home. Also back then, there wasn't an enormous financial sector desperately seeking creative new ways to lend money to ordinary people.

            DID YOU KNOW?

            Investing with Purpose. In an age of bitterly fought culture wars and soaring political polarization, social positions matter—even in the bottom-line world of money management. According to Bloomberg Businessweek, a small but growing number of financial firms are giving environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues a leading role in their investment strategies. Take L.A.- based Upfront Ventures: The fund recently introduced an “inclusion clause” that asks portfolio companies to ensure that at least one member of an underrepresented group will be interviewed for any open executive position. Verger Capital Management, meanwhile, recently surveyed each of its 89 outside money managers about their investment policies when it comes to ESG issues. Bain Capital’s Double Impact Fund has backed a landscaping-materials recycler and a fitness company operating in an underserved community, underscoring the company’s commitment to generating returns while doing some good in the process. Of course, a bad ESG track record isn’t the be-all and end-all, according to investment manager Andrew Borowiec: “I suppose the alpha beats all contingents.”