Now that reality has begun to set in after the head-spinning Trump/Kim Jong Un Singapore Summit, it's useful to reflect on what actually happened and where the diplomatic road ahead might lead.
- To be clear up front: there's no question that the peninsula is now more stable (i.e., a reduced likelihood of military confrontation) than was the case seven months ago; on the “strategic ledger,” that's good news. And the president deserves credit for at least trying to move the North Korea nuclear issue off dead-center, where it has been for over two decades.
But the "Joint Declaration" that emerged from the talks was far less specific than most peninsula observers had hoped for; and it raised again the fundamental Q: is Kim really serious about denuclearization? We should have a much clearer picture on this central point very quickly.
Beyond the declaration's vagueness, however, what has proved most concerning for our allies was the president suspending U.S.-South Korea “war games” and characterizing them as “provocative." As has been highlighted by many analysts in the days following the summit, these adjectives are long-standing Pyongyang and Beijing talking points. What specific “quid” did we receive from North Korea? Nothing heard from Kim.
Close behind in the "worry" category was the president’s eagerness to withdraw all U.S. forces from the peninsula. Trump's Singapore press conference statement in this regard seemed totally unnecessary.
- Was this yet another concession to induce cooperation from Kim, who has defined "denuclearization of the peninsula" in just these terms? For years Kim, his father, and his grandfather have each wanted U.S. forces and our "nuclear umbrella" withdrawn entirely. This is exactly what Trump suggested - but to what end?
- All of this apparent spontaneous rhetoric was clearly unsettling to Tokyo and Seoul, but welcomed in Beijing, Pyongyang, and Moscow.
One final reality: it will likely prove very difficult to resurrect the international sanctions regime against Pyongyang that the president successfully cobbled together last year; as one pundit observed regarding these sanctions, and Mr. Kim's Singapore charm offensive with the press, "Kim and his economy are 'now free to wander!'"
Secretary Mike Pompeo’s role will be herculean: to translate the general points in the summit declaration into tangible commitments from Pyongyang. And he’ll be doing this with no confirmed U.S. Ambassador in Seoul, no Under Secretary for Political Affairs, and no Assistant Secretary for the Asia Pacific. Pompeo is a smart man, close to the president; but he can’t do this by himself.
Hopefully, the Singapore summit will be the start of a serious effort toward the U.S.'s goal of “complete and verifiable denuclearization” of North Korea; if it is, the president and his Secretary of State will deserve all the credit. But make no mistake: every step will be a struggle; Chairman Kim has proven to be, in the words of the president, a "very smart guy and a tough negotiator." Quickly, the president and his team need to demonstrate that the United States is of equal negotiating mettle.
