NEWSWIRE: 6/18/18
- The recent deaths of Anthony Bourdain and Kate Spade have shed light on an ongoing middle-age suicide epidemic. CDC data reveal that suicide rates for 45- to 64-year-olds have risen much more than the national average since 2000, which is in many ways the culmination of a lifetime of risk-taking behavior among Xers and Boomers. (The Wall Street Journal)
- NH: The impact of age on happiness (and suicide) has been well studied. The traditional finding from research across all societies is that happiness declines with age--hence the general observation that suicide rates rise in old age. But new research (mostly using recent data from high-income societies in Europe and North America) is finding a profound "U-shape" in happiness: From youth on, you get less happy until entering midlife (around your early 50s) and then you start getting happier again. My take? This new U-shape, based on cross-sectional data, is masking a profound generational effect: Boomers, born from the late 1940s to the early 1960s, are taking their emotional pathologies and social disconnectedness with them into older age brackets. This is now making age 50 and 60 look worse relative to older and younger people. Sociologist Jean Twenge, confirming this "cohort effect," recently noted that from 1972 to 2014 "happiness has been rising for young people and falling for mature adults." The recent rise in suicide among midlife women (late-wave Boomers) has been so dramatic that the suicide rate for them has nearly doubled overall and is now higher at age 45-54 than any other age bracket--either younger or older. Incredibly, the rate has more than tripled for rural midlife women in the Midwest. Over the last decade, to be sure, there is also a positive "period effect" on suicide at all ages caused by the opioid epidemic. But the disproportionate growth in midlife suicide is unmistakable.
- Small towns are paying well-educated Millennials as much as $15,000 to settle down and work there. Despite the hefty incentive, ditching the big city may be a tough sell for Millennials—who crave features like walkable communities public transit that often are missing in exurban and rural areas. (Washington Examiner)
- NH: Given how high-density urban centers have pretty much priced themselves out of the young-adult pocketbook, these monetary incentives will find a receptive audience. Yet a better strategy for attracting peer-oriented Millennials would be to attract CEOs willing to locate a sizable company of young people--and then to use that as a cornerstone for attracting more firms and infrastructure. For this generation, in other words, critical mass really helps. This is what Detroit successfully did with Quicken Loans CEO Dan Gilbert. The main danger here is overpaying. Many communities participating in Amazon's HQ2 competition are beginning to fear that, if they win, they will have mortgaged both their future and their identity.
- Op-ed columnist David Brooks believes that the U.S. meritocracy has failed its citizens by creating a society short on community and civic sensibility. Though not quite a Boomer by birth year, Brooks is certainly in line with his older peers who have long decried America’s lack of emphasis on values and moral fiber. (The New York Times)
- NH: This is David Brooks at his best. His critique of America's dysfunction is primarily generational. Echoing such recent books as Steven Brill''s Tailspin and Bruce Gibney's A Generation of Sociopaths, he blames Boomers for celebrating individualism, intelligence, and diversity but spending no effort to sustain or repair our institutional or community life. The result? A nation that lacks any public or civic core--and for that reason is susceptible to the appeal of a "MAGA" strongman. He summarizes: "The older establishment won World War II and built the American Century. We, on the other hand, led to Donald Trump. The chief accomplishment of the current educated elite is that it has produced a bipartisan revolt against itself."
- Crisis pregnancy centers are gaining a foothold in the classroom, where they aim to teach students the dangers of sex before marriage. But these groups may have met their match in the form of “stealth-fighter” Gen-X parents who want to protect their kids against potentially harmful misinformation. (The Huffington Post)
- NH: CPCs put Gen-X parents in an awkward position. On the one hand, they agree by an overwhelming margin (roughly 80%) that any sex education program should try to deter their kids from having sex until they are out of school and are either married or in a committed relationship. On the other hand, most Xers detest the idea that authorities would lie to their kids. It's regrettable that this culture war should persist in the face of teens' dramatic success in reducing both pregnancies and abortions over the last twenty years.
- Fully 28% of 24- to 31-year-olds say they drink alcohol at home because “it takes too much effort to go out.” Alcohol consumption continues to dwindle among young adults—and even the Millennials who do imbibe would rather spend quality time with friends at home than get trashed at a bar. (Mintel)
- NH: We made this point in a recent report (See: "Where the Wild Things Aren't"): Millennials are drinking less, and even when they do drink they're not doing it in bars and nightclubs. They're pregaming, so to speak, without the game.
- Fully 27% of full-time gig-economy workers say they have $0 saved for retirement—compared to just 12% of traditional workers with a side gig. While gig-economy employment has huge upside for those who need flexibility, it also threatens to leave workers woefully unprepared for retirement. (Betterment)
- NH: An estimated one in three U.S. workers operates in the gig economy. So this is a pretty gloomy picture. Yes, 27% of full-time giggers have saved nothing for retirement. But another 30% have saved less than $5,000 for retirement. Wow. And as for part-time giggers? "Side-hustlers who are supplementing their traditional nine-to-five with gig work tend to be in the worst financial shape." All of them, both part-timers and full-timers, are less likely to be saving for retirement than working to pay off debts.
- Urban policy experts Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox contend that rising migration to the suburbs could have a huge impact on the U.S. political landscape. With suburbia gaining ground at the expense of large metros and rural areas, Republicans and (especially) Democrats will be forced to compete for America’s political middle in fast-growing suburbs. (Newgeography.com)
- NH: Kotkin and Cox elegantly summarize America's changing political landscape as follows: Democrats are cheering demographic change (more immigrants and minorities and the maturing of Democratic-leaning Millennials); and Republicans are cheering geographic change (the continued migration from blue-zone to red-zone states--and the ebbing population of dense urban centers). As we have previously pointed out (here and here), suburbia is now again beating out core urban areas in population growth. Hispanics in Texas are more conservative than they are in the west or north. Ditto, perhaps, for Millennials who age into the suburbs? One recent survey shows Millennials tilting less for the Democratic party in 2018 than in 2016--though most of this change is attributable to the accelerating economy.
- Homebuilders like Miller & Smith are catering to Gen Xers with new communities geared toward midlife adults. How do these communities stand out? More storage space, roomier living areas, and closer proximity to schools—all of which help satisfy the needs of the sandwich generation. (Builder)
- A recent article interviews several Millennials to gauge why they have put off parenthood. A common theme is financial uncertainty and an unwillingness to jeopardize one’s career: In the words if 33-year-old business owner Michelle Fernie-Oley, “What if someone says, ‘Oh, you just had a baby? I don’t want to hire you because you’re not going to give men the attention that I need.’” (ABC)
- Clothing retailer Madewell received backlash after running an advertisement featuring a plus-size model while failing to offer true plus-size clothes. The company is learning the hard way that Millennials want real inclusivity and openness, not just a PR-friendly ad campaign. (Racked)
- NH: Yes, this gap between plus-size marketing and plus-size offerings may expose retailers to the charge of hypocrisy. But, as the author herself admits, it may also point to a more interesting truth about these advertisers' inclusive, everyone-is-beautiful campaigns. Which is that they are not really intended to get the not-beautiful to think of themselves as beautiful--or even to get the not-beautiful to buy more from the advertiser. Rather, they are intended to get the beautiful and the aspiring beautiful to feel better and less exclusive about their purchases. Ouch. In other words, retailers may understand that it's nonsensical to be totally inclusive about an aspirational product. Indeed, Dove's recent "Choose Beautiful" campaign triggered a negative reaction from many people who found the campaign manipulative: For all its purported good intentions, Unilever ends up making you think even more about who is labeled beautiful and who is not.
DID YOU KNOW?
Frozen, Always Fresh. Amid the broader slowdown in CPG retail, a rare bright spot has emerged: frozen food. Nielsen data show that frozen-food sales rose 1.4% in Q1 2018, compared to zero growth the prior year. What’s going on? Some attribute the uptick to health-conscious shoppers, who have seen recent studies proclaim that frozen foods can retain nutrients better than comparable items on store shelves. Another factor is that, quite simply, frozen food is getting better. Look no further than Conagra Brands, whose sales in the refrigerated and frozen-food segment have risen for three quarters running. Conagra’s recent success stems from a large-scale rebrand of its frozen-food labels (which include Healthy Choice, Marie Callender’s, and Banquet): Once bland and boring, these labels now tout exotic flavors and ingredients in their meals—such as edamame, Cuban pork, and Korean beef. The message: In a frozen-food segment that has grown stale, fresh ideas pay dividends.
