A number of global currencies are slipping, sliding, and in some cases, crashing. We sincerely hope you were not part of the consensus crowd caught offsides by these recent moves.
Calling this “one of the most epic currency moves of modern times,” Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough points out that the risk around the Euro reached a bullish, fever pitch back in March when net non-commercial futures and options contracts reached an all-time high.
McCullough says that was the worst time to start getting long Euros (and other currencies) as the U.S. dollar started to strengthen. For the record, Hedgeye’s macro team adopted a non-consensus long call on the U.S. Dollar at the beginning of April.
“You do not want to be the crowd when the research supports the crowd being long currencies that should go down in the face of economic deterioration,” McCullough explains in the clip above.
“This has been happening for two months,” he says. “Currency crisis is a major risk when the number one place that the dollar does well is in the fourth quadrant (re: growth and inflation slowing), which is our economic outlook for the fourth quarter.”
Watch the full clip above for more.