A lot’s at stake when President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sit down in Singapore on June 12th. Skepticism abounded that this summit would even happen; it will. The big question now: what, if anything, emerges from the talks?
Rather than speculate on outcome options - and they still range from disaster to historic breakthrough - a brief comment might be helpful, before the leader travel commences, on what has made for success since WWII in high-stakes summits like this. In a nutshell, it’s the often fortuitous combination of unique moments plus unique state leaders - ones who bring to the table the courage and vision to cut through generations of bureaucratic resistance.
- Israel and Egypt would not have signed their peace accord in ’79 but for Israeli PM Menachem Begin and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, plus the good offices provided by President Jimmy Carter - a historic personality alignment.
- Similarly, Israel and Jordan wouldn’t have agreed to a treaty in ’94 but for the courage of Israeli PM Yitzhak Rabin and Jordan's King Hussein, plus the good offices provided by President Clinton - again, a unique and historic alignment of personalities.
- The same could be said of Nixon/Brezhnev/Kissinger in fashioning the SALT arms control deals in ’72, or Bush41/Gorbachev in agreeing to START in ’91 - unique leaders, at unique, historical moments.
Are Kim, Trump and Moon those personalities? And is this the moment? It’s safe to say, had South Korean president Moon’s predecessor (Park Geun-hye) not been removed from office, Seoul’s outreach to Pyongyang would never have happened; and Trump must be given credit for moving the Korea nuclear impasse off dead center, whatever one may think about his style.
- To be clear, skepticism remains rampant and deep that the Trump/Kim summit will turn out to be a “Camp David”-style moment. And the downsides are enormous, especially for Japan and PM Shinzo Abe, who seems almost totally cut out of the summit process. But somehow, this does seem different.
- Besides the alignment of personalities and historical moments, what also contributed to the successes above was preparation - extensive, with agency-wide input. One hopes that Pompeo, Mattis, and Bolton are up to the task; it’s their moment too. A fascinating month lies ahead!
