Sell in May and go away?
With about three-quarters of the April data having been released thus far, 72%/47% of Manufacturing PMIs, 84%/74% of Services PMIs and 89%/74% of Composite PMIs are SLOWING on a sequential/trending basis, respectively. That’s in-line with the same degree of broad-based deterioration in global growth we saw in the March figures.
Recall that this is 2nd derivative analysis, which means global growth in April < global growth in March, at least according to these widely-followed indicators.
Fun fact: Roughly 80% of the 46 economies we track in our proprietary Global Macro Risk Monitor are tracking in or towards #Quad3 (Growth slowing, Inflation Accelerating) for Q2. That’s simply not good for global risk asset returns over the next few months.