Call Date: Wednesday May 2, at 12:30PM
Dial-In and Webcast Information: To Be Provided Prior to The Call
It was a beautiful, botched IPO. So juicy. Lack of disclosure. Rushed to market. Heavily levered. M&A cobbled together…but the math on adding up customers, etc. just didn’t fly. And, they were asking for a ~30x multiple. We said “half!” would be a good start, and it got there. Now the stock is attracting some bottom feeders. No doubt, part of that is because of the heat of fall. And part of it is thanks to the stock becoming heavily shorted, and squeezable, in a brief period of time. We won’t really dispute that part of the setup much.
But, there are some…things. Some pieces that people still don’t know, haven’t seen, haven’t figured out. There is an item on the balance sheet that is ticking. It’s not quite a bomb but I am also quite certain it ain’t no watch. There is a stubborn floor on the churn – call it what you will, “net” or “gross.” There is a limit to market growth, penetration curve, software changes, and revenue momentum due to new entrants. And there is a very blurry line around customer count.
If you think they can de-lever, come and join us. Your opinion may be challenged.
If you were expecting materially lower interest expense in 1H18, come and join us. Your opinion may be challenged.
If you were looking for improvement beyond M&A…
…and so much more:
- Revenue math
- Churn bugaboo
- A Koch’ed up Balance Sheet
- Barriers on the road to de-levering
- Setup on the quarter – set up on the long run
- Our effort on fair value
- ARPU & Customer attrition math
- Parsing Guidance – hidden opportunities +/-
- Macro indicators
- And another dozen items…
Yes, we know it is earnings season. We have earnings too. But you can take a break for lunch, grab a sandwich, and join us as we walk through our new research on the company once known as American District Telegraph.
