CHART OF THE DAY: Our Favorite Sector Short

04/27/18 08:33AM EDT

Editor's Note: Below is an excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to get it.

Finally on our favorite S&P Sector Short right now, Industrials (XLI): 

  1. US Capex just slowed to +7.0% in MAR from its cycle high of +9.9% year-over-year growth in OCT 2017
  2. New Orders (Regional Fed Survey) just tanked from their late 2017 cycle peak (see Chart of The Day)
  3. Capex Plans just rolled over, hard, from their all-time peak in Q417 

Do you have big, late-cycle, “globally synchronized” industrial demand in your portfolio? How about Tax Reform? Are you short US Dollars? What will the recent US Dollar Bottoming process do to your international margins and earnings stories? 

Don’t tell me about what worked in your portfolio last year. Tell me what risks you currently have in your 2018 portfolio and what exposures your #process is telling you to take out. 

CHART OF THE DAY: Our Favorite Sector Short - CoD new Orders Composite

CHART OF THE DAY: Our Favorite Sector Short - early look

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