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Consumer confidence is one of the “original leading indicators” of economic cycles, according to Hedgeye Demography analyst Neil Howe. It is always highest right before a downturn.

The key question Howe (and just about everyone else) is asking right now: Are we at Peak Confidence?

Howe dug into 40 years of Consumer Confidence data in a recent presentation. He dissected the confidence index’s measure of “present situation” and consumers’ future economic “expectations.” He also looked at where each measure peaks in relation to those confidence cycles.

He came to one conclusion:

“Every business cycle looks the same,” Howe explains in the clip above.

“Sometimes we think everything is random, history doesn’t repeat, but look at this [data]. It looks like repetition to me.”

Watch the clip above for more.

Neil Howe: Is Consumer Confidence Predicting A Downturn? - the macro show