Editor's Note: This complimentary research update was written by Hedgeye analyst Josh Steiner. For information on how you can subscribe to his institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.
This morning, the Toronto Real Estate Board released its market statistics report for the month of March. Sales were down
- -46% for detached homes
- -33% for condos
- -31% for semi-detached homes
- and-36% for townhouses Y/Y, respectively
In sum, total sales were down -40% Y/Y, a sequential rate-of-change decline from the prior month.
With OSFI's newly revised B-20 guidelines having come into effect at the beginning of the year, it appears that the short-term boost in housing demand observed from October to December of 2017 and attributed to late-entry buys looking to jump ahead of the policy change, has receded and the new tighter federal lending conditions have now begun to dampen sales in the Greater Toronto Area.
Moreover, the number of active listings, on a Y/Y basis, continues to signal further worry. In March, existing "for-sale" inventories were up +103% Y/Y.
