R3: WMT: The Rut of Consistency


February 11, 2010


In the near-term there is little to suggest that Wal-Mart shares are anything more than still stuck in a narrow range.  Even with what appears to be a flurry of recent organizational and strategic changes, the company’s performance remains relegated to a simple two factor equation- traffic and pricing.





After another year of lackluster share price performance, it seems that the Street is looking for reasons to own Wal-Mart in 2010.  The shares have been subject to two upgrades in the past two weeks, so there is sure to be something going on here, right?  Well, on the surface it looks like there’s been more activity at the largest company on earth in the new year than we’ve seen in a while.  Let’s take a look at some of the company’s recent announcements:


  • Formation of a global sourcing initiative with Li & Fung. The arrangement begins with $2 billion worth of goods, which is not much at all considering WMT is on pace to deliver north of $405 billion in revenues this past year.  The larger initiative also calls for an increase in focus on direct imports and global sourcing.  Haven’t we heard about this at almost every analyst day over the  past five years?
  • Sam’s Club store closings (10 stores, 1,500 employees), outsourcing of demonstration employees (10,000), and the elimination of new business representatives at the clubs.  Hmm, another pseudo-restructuring at Sam’s Club.  But will this finally be the move that closes the productivity gap with Costco? Not a chance.
  • New operations structure for Wal-Mart U.S which consolidates Real Estate, Operations, and Logistics under one leadership team to foster more value for customers, growth for associates, and returns for shareholders.  We’re missing how this one will actually work.  The memo on this topic was the longest, but also the lightest on real details.
  • Realignment of merchandising categories. Alignment of Store Planning with Customer Experience Teams.  This makes the most sense, but after the Store of the Community was unveiled we thought the marriage of what the customers want and what Wal-Mart sells were already one in the same.  Looks like there will always be work to be done here.
  • Integration of Puerto Rican operations into Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club U.S.  Definitely a cost savings measure but it probably is a rounding error given the law of large numbers here.


So what do all these moves, changes, and dense employee memos really mean?  They need to do something (anything?) given that U.S same-store sales have been negative for what is likely to be 3 quarters in a row and EBIT margins have been in an extremely narrow range of 40 bps over the past 6 years.  Stability is what makes this a staple in the truest sense, but it certainly doesn’t make for an exciting investment opportunity, LONG or SHORT.  Yes, earnings have been growing over the same time frame, but at a decreasing rate for each subsequent year.  Wal-Mart’s historical stock performance coincides with its financial results.  The share price performance over following durations is: YTD -0.22%  , 1YR +11.76% , 5YR -0.24%, and 10YR -5.29%.  So in other words, an investment in Wal-Mart has basically been like holding cash.  


After some digging into the model, it’s seems clear that even with all these organizational and strategic maneuvers, Wal-Mart is still relegated to a simple two-factor equation.  Traffic and pricing.  Both are fairly easy to decipher in the near term.  With the economy in its current state, there is no question that Wal-Mart has benefitted from a traffic boost.  But in the absence of a measurable change in the economic backdrop to the downside, the traffic outlook looks status quo at best.  We have simply passed the peak, based on what we know today, in the year over year growth in consumers trading down to deeper discount retailing.  There is no question that the payroll cycle is still as pronounced as ever, but with unemployment no longer getting worse and even food stamp usage growing at a lesser rate (see yesterday’s post “SNAP Participation Growth Slowing” for more detail), Wal-Mart’s incremental traffic opportunities appear harder to come by. 


That brings us to pricing.  The Holy Grail that investors keep pointing to is inflation.  Yes, we are seeing signs of inflation in food and consumables.  Costco confirmed this on their recent sales call, but simple math also suggests that 2010 will be inflationary for consumables.  After all, we are coming off of the most deflationary period in food and consumables in modern history.  With that said, what is Wal-Mart going to do with an inflationary trend?  If we read the tea leaves and look at the subtleties of the company’s recent memos, “lower prices” remain the cornerstone of Wal-Mart’s efforts. 


While bullish investors may be putting on long trades in Safeway and Kroger because of the mighty inflation, Wal-Mart is probably going to spoil the party.  Roll-backs will continue, forever.  All of the efforts to lower cost of goods are not solely aimed at boosting the gross margin line.  Yes, there may eventually be some benefits to consolidating SKU’s and finally building a global sourcing organization, but reinvestment in price to drive market share still appears to be a top priority.  It’s embedded in the culture and this is one thing that is highly, highly unlikely to change.


As a result, in the near-term there is little to suggest that the company’s fundamentals and share price are anything more than still stuck in a narrow range.  To meaningfully break this cycle of monotony, we would have to see a few key things: 1) merchandising efforts actually work and drive a mix shift back towards discretionary goods, which in turn drives average ticket and margins higher, 2) a meaningful pick up in contribution from international at higher EBIT margins (unlikely as the non-U.S units collectively remain in growth mode) and 3) an acceleration in traffic (share) growth as a result of all of the above-mentioned efforts combined.  In theory, achieving this short list is what management needs to do to get out of the rut of consistency.  In reality, the hope of inflation as a savior and reliance on merchandising changes to drive margins higher are likely to be disappointing to those looking at 2010 as a breakout year for the largest company on the planet.


R3: WMT: The Rut of Consistency - 1




  • After a very strong boot season, JNY management indicated that they expect the category to remain strong throughout the Spring/Summer and into Fall 2010. As a reminder, history suggests that it’s very unlikely to see two “very strong” boot seasons in a row, especially since cold weather typically acts as a boost to the upside for boots. However, it is notable that Nine West has returned to Nordstrom in all doors- clearly a vote of confidence from the most important footwear retailer in the U.S.
  • What do you get when you cross Crocs with Converse Chuck Taylor All-Stars or Clark’s Wallabees? Native Shoes. Check them out here: Clearly there is still a chance to actually make injected-molded footwear look cool…
  • Despite the growth in the use of email as a marketing tool, especially by retailers, a new study by Return Path suggests not all emails are reaching recipients. The new study shows that 20% of email in the U.S and Canada is not making it into the inbox. Approximately 3% is going to straight into a “junk” folder, while the remainder is “going missing”.




Gap Inc. Shuffles Leadership - Gap Inc. is resetting its top ranks in an effort to correct prolonged product issues at the Gap division, sustain momentum at Old Navy and possibly bring the chain overseas, WWD has learned. The moves also identify Gap’s future leaders. In the biggest change, Pam Wallack will become president of Gap adult and body, filling a slot vacant for 18 months since the departure of Gary Muto, who is president of Loft. Those duties were being handled by Marka Hansen, president of Gap North America, and other executives. Wallack, who was running Gap kids and baby businesses for the past five years, will report to Hansen.  Succeeding Wallack as head of Gap kids and baby businesses is Mark Breitbard, who since last year has been Old Navy’s chief merchandising and creative officer. Previously, he was president of Levi Strauss & Co.’s retail division and senior vice president and general manager at Abercrombie & Fitch Co., but he held merchandising jobs at Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic from 1997 to 2005. <>


Steven Madden Buys Big Buddha Handbags - Steven Madden Inc. has acquired Big Buddha Inc., the better-priced accessories line founded by Jeremy Bassan. Madden purchased the firm for $11 million in cash plus certain earn-out provisions that are based on financial performance through 2013. Bassan said he will stay on to oversee the line, which will move from its Santa Cruz, Calif., headquarters to Madden’s facility in Long Island City, N.Y. “We’ve bought the bags for our stores in the past and they’ve been fantastic, and we love that it’s a young company with tremendous value,” founder Steve Madden said. “We want to help with their distribution both domestically and internationally, and the bags really fit in with what we’re doing.” Since its 2003 inception, Big Buddha has produced better-priced accessories for department stores and online retailers, such as Dillard’s and In 2009, Big Buddha had net sales of $13 million.  <>


Gildan Activewear to Open Distribution Center in South Carolina - Gildan Activewear will locate a new distribution center on Clements Ferry Road in Charlston, SC, with operations expected to begin in the next few weeks. Gildan expects to hire about 250 people this year for the new facility. Gildan has purchased the former Mikasa building, which is located in the city of Charleston and in Berkeley County. "This state-of-the-art facility will be utilized to support the company's strategic initiative to become a major full-line supplier of basic family apparel for national mass-market retailers," Glenn Chamandy, Gildan president and CEO, said in a statement that the S.C. Department of Commerce released today. <>


LaCrosse Footwear Plans New Danner Factory - LaCrosse Footwear, Inc.  plans to move into a new Danner factory in Portland, Oregon. The new Danner facility will be located in an industrial building approximately one mile from the company's corporate headquarters. The new factory will be approximately 59,000 square feet, representing twice the square footage of the company's existing Portland-based factory which is being replaced. The new facility's lease is scheduled to begin during the second quarter of 2010 for a term of approximately five years, with options to extend the lease for up to 15 more years. DP Partners is serving as the developer for the project. LaCrosse expects to begin production in the new facility in the third quarter of 2010. During 2010, the company expects total capital expenditures to be approximately $8 to $9 million, which includes leasehold improvements and machinery for the new factory facility. During the transition period from the current factory to the new facility, the company plans for certain one-time costs of approximately $0.5 million, which are expected to be included in its operating expenses in the second and third quarters of 2010.  <>


Harry and David shakes up the CEO suite and brings in an outsider - Harry and David has named Steven J. Heyer as its next chairman and CEO to replace president and CEO Bill Williams who has left the company. Heyer joins Harry and David, which owns and operates, and, from Avra Kehdabra Animation LLC, a computer animation studio. Prior to co-founding Avra Kehdabra, Heyer also served as chief executive officer of Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. and as president and chief operating officer of Turner Broadcasting System Inc.  <>


C.P. Company Sold To FGF Industry SpA - The owners of Sportswear Company SpA have sold their C.P. Company division to FGF Industry SpA, the company owned by designer-entrepreneur Enzo Fusco, who produces and distributes Blauer USA, BPD, Design by Enzo Fusco and Sweet Years. Sportswear Company, owned by siblings Carlo and Cristina Rivetti, retains ownership of its Stone Island brand. The operational handover will take effect with the spring 2011 collection. WWD first reported that C.P. Company was on the block last month. Founded in 1975 by Italian designer Massimo Osti, C.P. Company built a cult following with its military-inspired silhouettes and customized textile treatments. Last spring, Rivetti appointed Wallace Faulds, a deputy of John Galliano, as its designer. The brand shows in Milan. <>


Sports apparel and home improvement brands climb the buzz charts - Inc. continues its run as the most talked-about retailer on the social web for the fifth consecutive month, according to the monthly Zeta Buzz Top 25 Retail Standings Index, a measurement of online retail chatter conducted by digital marketing firm and social media monitoring service provider Zeta Interactive exclusively for Internet Retailer. The brands showing the most positive movement in the rankings since last month were the Home Depot (+9), Lowe’s (+7) and Nike (+6). The brands with the most negative movement were Barnes & Noble (-11), GameStop (-7) and Old Navy (-6). There were five retail brands new to the Top 25 list this month: Costco, Walgreens, Staples, Dick’s Sporting Goods and Adidas. Five retailers dropped out of the Top 25 rankings this month: H&M, Aeropostale, J.C. Penney, Radio Shack and Toys ‘R’ Us. “Retailers in the sports apparel and home improvement industries experienced the biggest buzz increases—a sign that post-holiday fitness resolutions and improvements around the house are top of mind for consumers,” says Zeta Interactive CEO Al DiGuido. <>

The M3: Resorts World Opening Sunday, Nagacorp Targets Chinese Gamblers, Macau-Tokyo Air Agreement



The Resorts World casino-resort is set to open on Chinese New Year, Feb 14 at an auspicious time of 12:18pm. Genting also plans to open its Universal Studios theme park by early March. Feb. 14, 15, and 16 are national holidays in Singapore for Chinese New Year.



China Morning Post, The Standard


President Chen Lipkeong would like to form a JV with at least two Macau casino operators. He believes Cambodia's attractive effective tax rate (2% vs 14% in Macau) would promote interest in a partnership. Nagacorp plans to expand the number of gaming machines at its NagaWorld casino resort in Phnom Penh to 1000 from 738 this year. 




Macau and Japan have signed a new air agreement that allows designated airlines to make regular flights to all destinations in Japan, including Tokyo, beginning this coming March.  


"Hope is not the conviction that something will turn out well but the certainty that something makes sense, regardless of how it turns out”

-Vaclav Havel


HOPE is not an investment process, but I HOPE the EU and Ben Bernanke get it right.  As Keith McCullough posted yesterday he thought the prepared statement was “refreshingly objective” in saying the Federal Reserve will raise the discount rate “before long.”  This is an explicit change in the Fed’s language; a change we thought should have come in January. 


The two dominant MACRO factors at work yesterday were the fiscal challenges in Europe and Ben Bernanke testimony that wasn’t.  On the lack of conviction on how this is going to end, the S&P 500 finished lower by 0.22% on very light volume.   Although, the light volume is likely more a function of the East Coast snowstorm.


In our multi-factor model, the VIX was the only factor that suggested a continued benefit from the RISK AVERSION trade.  The VIX closed down 2.3% to 25.40, but is still bullish on TRADE and TREND. The Hedgeye Risk Management models have the following levels for VIX – buy Trade (22.40) and Sell Trade (28.34). 


The favorable risk implications are emanating from increased expectations for some kind of Euro/German rescue package for Greece and other troubled European nations.  Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou is on the tape saying he does not need help, but has apparently hammered out an aid package.  The Dollar index (DXY) gained some strength yesterday finishing up 0.21%.    The Hedgeye Risk Management models have levels for DXY at – buy Trade (79.69) and sell Trade (80.67). 


Yesterday, the Consumer Discretionary (XLY) underperformed the S&P 500 and broke TREND, leaving Healthcare as the only sector positive on TREND.  Although it should be noted that the XLV was the second worst performing sector yesterday, declining 0.6% 


The only sector up on the day was Financials (XLF).  The money center banks bounced yesterday from the benefited of the RISK AVERSION trade; the two standouts were BAC and JPM.  Outside of the banks, the asset managers outperformed too.


The strength in the DXY and earnings miss put pressure on the Materials (XLB), the worst performing sector yesterday.  The XLB declined 0.7% yesterday, with the weakness focused on the steel sector. ArcelorMittal announced below consensus Q1 EBITDA guidance, as higher shipments will be offset by lower ASPs and increased costs.  Ah yes inflation!


As we look at today’s set up, the range for the S&P 500 is 31 points or 2.1% (1,045) downside and 0.74% (1,076) upside.  Equity futures are currently trading above fair value in a follow through to yesterday's late day bounce and the EU support of Greece. 


Copper climbed the most in almost three months in London as lending increased in China and employers added jobs in Australia, improving the demand outlook.  The Hedgeye Risk Management Quant models have the following levels for COPPER – Buy Trade (2.82) and Sell Trade (3.14).


The correlation for gold continues - gold is trading lower on the back of a stronger dollar.  The Hedgeye Risk Management models have the following levels for GOLD – Buy Trade (1,044) and Sell Trade (1,111).


The International Energy Agency raised its forecast for global oil demand this year as developing countries need more crude to fuel their economies.  Oil has traded higher for the last three day and looks to be up again today.  The Hedgeye Risk Management models have the following levels for OIL – Buy Trade (70.11) and Sell Trade (77.26).


Howard Penney

Managing Director














Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.52%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.67%

Li Ning: Lighting a Match in a Dry Forest

When we hosted our call in early January discussing our Top 10 ‘Predictable Unpredictables’ (events that we assign a better than 60% chance of happening, but the consensus is not focused on) for the global softlines supply chain for 2010, we discussed the Chinese Import factor.  We’re not even through February and we’re already getting confirmation.


What kind of risk? (for those of you that did not participate in our call).  No, it’s not COGS. The consensus finally caught up to that one. Yes, we did discuss changes in the free trade environment in Asia, and the dollar falling out of favor with Asian factories. That’s definitely a concern. But the risk I’m referring to here is Chinese content/brands transplanting themselves onto US soil. Yes, Reebok has all but gone away, and Adidas is weakening. But a brand like Li Ning or Anta could come along and gain a couple of points of share of the $20bn athletic footwear market at the drop of a hat.


Well folks, Li Ning has just opened its first US showroom in Sneaker Valley – otherwise known as Portland, OR – where just about every viable player in the US athletic market has established a presence to attempt to raid Nike’s talent.


Li Ning is launching a press event on Monday focused around the launch of the ‘BD Doom’ game shoe, which is designed for LA Clippers’ star Baron Davis.  As a point of reference, other Li Ning NBA athletes include Shaq, Jose Calderon (Raptors) and Hasheem Thabeet (Grizzlies).


As a sidenote, this is either really good timing, or really bad timing for Li Ning. Nike is going on offense again, and the BD launch surrounds an athlete who is at a critical and questionable tipping point.


No one would accuse Davis of being in good form these days. And with Mike Dunleavy stepping down as the Clippers’ coach last week, Davis lost his last ‘loser’ excuse on a coach who is a control freak.


In his own words “I got to go out and get back to being my old self now. [Interim] Coach Kim is going to allow me to be a little bit freer and play off instincts. So, I just got to get back to that mentality. From there, I think everything else will take care of itself.”


You better, BD. Li Ning is betting on you.


Regardless of Davis fate, this move by Li Ning won’t be the last. I actually think that this is very good for the industry. The ONLY time the US athletic footwear industry could be accused of being healthy is when there was someone stepping up to challenge Nike. Under Armour will do so in 2010, and some foreign content will keep Nike on edge. That’s when it performs the best. All these things add up to better product, and better comps for retail. It turns out to be less about market share and more about growing the market. As I’ve been saying, I have a high degree of confidence that we’ll finally return to growth in the footwear market in 2010.


Li Ning: Lighting a Match in a Dry Forest - shoe


Li Ning: Lighting a Match in a Dry Forest - shoe2


Chipotle is scheduled to report 4Q09 earnings after the close tomorrow, and based on the company’s recent track record (as shown in the chart below), it will likely beat street estimates.  I am modeling EPS of $0.84 versus the street at $0.81.  If my number is right, this outperformance would not come even close to the 26% earnings upside in 3Q09, but as the chart below also shows, this earnings beat was still not enough to get investors excited as the stock traded down 8% the following day.


CMG – WHERE TO FROM HERE? - CMG eps vs estimates


Investors have become accustomed to better-than-expected earnings, so what has mattered more is the trend in top-line numbers.  In 3Q09, the 150 bp sequential slowdown in 2-year average trends helps to explain why the stock performed so poorly.  To that end, we could see the stock trade higher on Friday as my estimates assume +2.3% same-store sales growth, better than the street’s +1.4% estimate.  Going forward, however, I would expect comparable store sales trends to get worse as we move through 2010, even if traffic trends on a 2-year average basis get less bad, which should influence CMG’s stock performance.


Throughout the third quarter, CMG’s EBIT margins have improved on a YOY basis in 2009, with the company operating at peak margins during 2Q09 and 3Q09 of 15.1% and 14.5%, respectively.  The company’s return on incremental invested capital has also moved higher in 2009.  These peak margins and returns are also reflected in CMG’s peak multiple.  The company is currently trading at nearly 11x on a NTM EV/EBITDA basis relative to the QSR average of 8x.


I have previously said that a restaurant company’s stock price performance is often highly correlated to the direction of returns and as the second chart below shows, this has been true for CMG.  The current direction of returns often impacts if a stock will move higher or lower and CMG’s trajectory of returns as of 3Q09 puts CMG in a seemingly favorable position.  So the most important question is whether the next leg is up or down and as I see it, CMG’s peak margins and returns are likely to roll over. 


CMG – WHERE TO FROM HERE? - CMG ebit margin 3Q09




In 4Q08, CMG rolled out a 6% incremental price increase, which helped to leverage the company’s P&L at a time when traffic was negative and deteriorating further on a 2-year average basis.  The 6% pricing impact from 3Q09 will come down in 4Q09 to +2.5% as we lap the 4Q08 price increase.  The company will have flat pricing as of January 1 and as of the last earnings call, did not expect to take any pricing in 2010 until management saw an uptick in consumer spending. 


My +2.3% same-store sales estimate for 4Q09 assumes some improvement in traffic trends on a 2-year basis (most likely the primary difference between my higher same-store sales estimate and that of the street’s) as we have seen sequentially better numbers in the fourth quarter from those restaurant concepts that attract higher income consumers.  Even so, EBIT margins should begin to roll over in 4Q09 from the peak levels earlier in the year.  I am expecting continued YOY margin growth but of a lesser magnitude than in the prior three quarters.  Some of this sequential decline in margins is explained by the fact that the fourth quarter typically results in lower margin and also the company is opening considerably more restaurants during the quarter, which implies higher preopening expenses and increased inefficiencies on the labor line.  The roll off in pricing also removes some of the leverage in the model and will have a bigger impact in 1Q10 when I would expect margins to begin to decline on a YOY basis.


Also impacting margins in 2010 is the fact that the company is forecasting low single digit food and labor cost inflation after getting significant leverage on both these expense lines in 2009.  In describing the gives and takes in its operating model, management stated on its last earnings call, “The way to think about it is in a perfect world if there was zero inflation and you had zero comps, our margins would hold up exactly as they are today. If you have a little bit of inflation - let's say it's 1% inflation across the board, across labor, across food, across everything - that would hit your margin for about 70 basis points; 2% inflation across everything would hit you for about 140 basis points.”  As I just said, management is not expecting zero inflation, but is expecting flat comps and the resulting impact on margins is obvious.  To be fair, management’s comp guidance assumes no improvement in consumer spending, so it might be somewhat conservative, and a lot will depend on whether management changes its stance on pricing in 2010. But, as I see it, operating margins are coming down in 2010.


Declining margins never bode well for returns and in my opinion, nor will the company’s new real estate strategy.  In 2010, CMG currently plans to open 120-130 new restaurants, even with the expected level of openings in 2009.  However, due to the “recent pressure on developers and the corresponding reduction in number of new developments currently available for [CMG] to buy or lease” (as cited by the company), CMG is now pursuing a new real estate strategy.  In the past, the company only opened restaurants in what it deemed “tier 1” trade areas.  Going forward, management plans to still open about two-thirds of its new units in these “tier 1” areas, but due to the limited number of opportunities, it will also pursue what it is calling “A model sites,” which it says are “tier two trade areas which still have attractive demographics typically characterized by lower occupancy costs and develop for a substantially lower investment cost.”


This new strategy will put pressure on new unit AUVs as the A model sites are expected to generate about $1.1 million in sales volumes, which is below the company’s average opening range of $1.350 million to $1.4 million.  In the past, CMG has built two-thirds of its new sites in proven markets, which yields opening volumes above its average new unit volumes and one-third in new and developing markets, which come in below average at $1.1M.


For 2010, CMG is planning to build 25% of its new openings as A model locations.  Initially, CMG said it will build these A models in proven markets, which means these relatively lower AUV new builds will take away from the higher volumes typically generated in proven markets.


Tier 2 sites are still expected to achieve cash on cash returns in the mid 30% range because the lower development, occupancy and operating costs will offset the lower expected sales volumes.  These new “A model sites” will not pose a problem should they generate the expected returns, but it always concerns me when a restaurant operator appears to be compromising its real estate decisions in order to maintain growth.  The fact that the company said it will pursue as many tier 1 locations as it can implies that they are still the preferred sites.  To that end, the tier 2 locations signal less discipline on the part of the company for the sake of maintaining growth.  These types of compromised real estate decisions often lead to declining returns.  And, increasing penetration of proven markets could put the company at risk of cannibalizing sales going forward.  That would not be a new story for a restaurant company.


Howard Penney

Managing Director

JNY: ‘They’re Baaaaack!’

JNY:  ‘They’re Baaaaack!’


JNY is morphing back to its old value destroying self again – both financially and behaviorally. JNY may have one quarter left of salvation, but then it’s gonna get ugly. The market is blissfully unaware of what lies ahead.



In case you weren’t counting, three of the seven analysts on the JNY call congratulated JNY on ‘a quarter well done.’  Am I the only one that hates when I hear someone being congratulated for doing their job – and a mediocre one at that? How’s that for a company that preannounced negatively a week ago, and put up a loss of $125mm thanks to yet another write down of its marginal assets.


I increasingly do not like this name. I’ve avoided being on the short side for the past three quarters as management simply had too many easy levers to pull to maintain momentum -- regardless of whether these levers should be pulled at all. Now we’re at a point where the incremental upside will be tougher to come by.  


Let’s consider the facts…


1. Wholesale Better Apparel (29% of Revenue and 55% of cash flow): Just printed an 11.2% margin – up 128bps from a year-ago. This margin absolutely HAS TO hold, which is a stretch. With so-called ‘bad business’ already having been pruned (i.e. lost), the natural mix shift to a better book is not going to recur. JNY will get about a 3% top line boost due to its Rodriguez acquisition and from jump ball business created by LIZ hopping in the sack with JCP. But on the same token, with LIZ no longer at Macy’s whim, JNY will see added pressure for markdown dollars at quarters’ end by the 900lb gorilla – even if it is not JNY product that is not selling through. This also holds true for Jeanswear and Footwear.


2. Wholesale Jeanswear (24% of revenue and 35% of cash flow): Let’s face an ugly reality. This business just printed a +3.5% top line, but a 385bp improvement in segment margins, and it just highlighted a major roll over this quarter in top line due to anniversarying a big push last year with l.e.i., and increased competitive pressure. This was also the source of JNY’s asset write down. Margins in ’10 are not looking good here.


3. Wholesale Footwear (26% of Revenue and 30% of cash flow): This business is the poster child for a wholesale business that benefitted from the boot cycle. Could it last another quarter? Maybe. Another year (of sequential improvement in trajectory of boot sales)? Not likely – by a long shot. The company is guiding for 4-9% top line growth for ’10. This looks like a stretch without meaningful margin erosion.


4. Retail: (21% of revenue and -20% hit to cash flow): Here’s where I’m most concerned. JNY is in store closing mode, and 1Q alone should see a double digit revenue hit due to 50 fewer stores, and that should accelerate to 165 stores by end the of the year (it closed 96 in 2009). Also, retail has been a beneficiary of the boot cycle – something that’s not likely to recur in 2010. Management is on record as saying that it will break-even at retail this year. That might seem impressive in looking at the $41mm loss JNY just printed at retail. But read the fine print – that is ‘before corporate allocation.’  We estimate about $40mm in corporate expenses, or about $12mm at retail. So ‘breaking even’ actually equates to losing a double-digit number in what is reported to the Street. You can’t cut a business to profitability long-term. Ultimately you need to sell stuff that the consumer wants.


5. Balance Sheet: Lastly, let’s consider this thing called the balance sheet. On the plus side, JNY printed a commendable 18 point spread between sales growth and inventory growth. But how much longer is that sustainable for? Working capital should be helped by store closures, but keep in mind that in 2009 working capital was accretive to cash flow from operations to the tune of 29%. That’s the SAME year when capex as a percent of sales came down to 0.9%. Yes, boys and girls, that’s 0.9%. Can someone find me any company that touches this industry that can sustain a capex rate below 1%. Thanks in advance. In fact, JNY already guided that capex is going up to 1.5%, or about 55-60%.


6. Buy, Buy Buy. Another note on cash. JNY did not buy back stock this quarter, and in fact it issued a small amount. The company said flat-out that it is in full-on deal mode. No stock repo, no debt paydown. They’re gonna buy something. Let’s look back at JNY’s track record of acquisitions. Actually, let’s not. It’s too depressing. Just take a quick glimpse at long-term return on capital.


The bottom line here is that JNY is easing back into the ‘old Jones’ mindset. Cut when you should invest, and acquire when you can, not when you should.  Let’s not forget that this is a company that historically traded as low as 3-4x EBITDA and 9-10x EPS, and had up to 35% short interest. Today it is at 6x EBITDA, 14.5x earnings, and has a paltry 6% short interest. Some might argue that 6x EBITDA is not expensive. And overall, it’s probably not – IF they believe in the stability of cash flow. I’ll go to the mat with them on that one!


-Brian McGough


JNY:  ‘They’re Baaaaack!’ - jny


JNY:  ‘They’re Baaaaack!’ - jny2



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