Internalizing the news on a potential Trump/Kim Jong Un meeting, as well as the firing of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, is taxing. First blush reactions linger: the U.S. needs to hold on to its "collective wallets" if the Kim meeting actually materializes; and the disruption in STATE leadership complicates enormously the preparation for a “make-or-break” leaders’ summit later this spring - made worse if National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster follows Tillerson out the door.
- On the Kim face-to-face, despite the enthusiasm from the South Koreans and the self-congratulatory comments from the president, there is nothing yet from the North Korean News Agency trumpeting the meeting! This says a lot about whether a hi-level meeting will, in fact, take place; most outside analysts, particularly those who have actually tried to negotiate with Pyongyang, still give no more than a 50% chance the meeting will actually happen.
So, in the wake of the Kim announcement particularly, who's smiling, and who's worried?
SMILING:
- Kim Jong Un for sure; the greatest violator of human rights on the planet gets a regime-legitimizing meeting with the U.S. president, and paid no price. (Yes, he hasn't tested anything since last November; but he may not need to; and for sure, missile and nuclear R&D continue apace.)
- Moon Jae In: the South Korean president is ecstatic; but if his "Moonshine" policy with the North comes a cropper, he'll pay a heavy political price.
- The PRC: breathing a sigh of relief, particularly if they don't have to squeeze Pyongyang any further and risk additional business contraction north of the Yalu River.
WORRIED:
- Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe: he has been the strongest supporter of Trump's pressure tactics on the North and knows all too well the perfidy from Pyongyang; despite his public support for the US announcement, Abe has to be deeply concerned about a Trump "deal" that reduces the U.S. security presence in the region - a clear goal of Kim.
- Putin: The last thing "Mr. Meddler" wants at this point is stability on the Peninsula that pulls U.S. chestnuts out of the fire and gives the U.S. a "win," however that might be defined; we saw during the Olympics what his "false flag" cyber attacks tried to do to undermine potential North-South rapprochement; Putin will keep trying.
IF there is a meeting and Trump doesn't give away the farm (as President Reagan nearly did in his first sit-down with Gorbachev in 1986 in Reykjavik), there might be a few upsides: we'll find out, for example, who surrounds Kim Jong Un in his inner policy circle, something our intelligence community has struggled to unearth; and we may open a military communication channel with the North that can reduce the chances of miscalculation. There is always the chance too of a pleasant surprise - a peace deal and Korean peninsula stability.
But to be clear: Kim Jong Un is not giving up his nuclear weapons anytime soon; and the risks for Trump and our relationships in NE Asia are high. Preparation for the meeting will be indescribably difficult given the stakes and the hidden personality of the North Korean leader. I personally helped prepare for, or directly participated in, numerous "summits" between our president and foreign heads of state, including President Ford and Leonid Brezhnev in December 1974, George H.W. Bush and Francois Mitterrand in 1989, and Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin in 1995; the "work-up" is herculean, as is the challenge of keeping the president "on script" and our allies allied!
Bottom Line? For the time being, keep me in the "skeptical/worried" camp on Korean Peninsula breakthroughs. Nobody is drafting the words for a Nobel Peace Prize.
