Good morning, you can enjoy today's The Macro Show with Macro analyst Ben Ryan and Housing analyst Morgan Lee HERE and access the associated slides (once they become available) HERE.
hedgeye's top 3 things
Below are the top three things from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough’s Macro Notebook this morning:
1) 10YR YIELDS – UST 10YR Yield pulls right back (right on time) to the low-end of the refreshed 2.80-2.91% @Hedgeye Risk Range as both local and global inflation expectations start to pull back to reality (that reality is the economic data). German and French 10YR Yields back down to 0.57% and 0.83%, respectively, as France’s CPI slows to 1.2% year-over-year this morning.
2) COPPER – Had its 1-day bounce on “better than expected” Chinese data (but still SLOWING on a TRENDING rate of change basis), then pulls back again today. We are reiterating the Bearish @Hedgeye TREND call on Copper but liking the new Bullish @Hedgeye TREND call on corn (as in cob).
3) S&P 500 – Corrected, right on time, from the top-end of our risk range – but we’re still seeing a massive implied volatility DISCOUNT of -47% vs. 30-day realized in the options market, so our call on U.S. Equity Beta (SPY) is range bound (as opposed to higher-all-time-highs) now as our signal is suggesting both higher-lows but lower-highs – that tends to typify a short-term consolidation.
HedgeyeTV
WEBCAST: Market Meltdown? Pippa Malmgren 1-on-1 with Keith McCullough
The current U.S. economic expansion has continued—uninterrupted—for a remarkable 106 months with no recession.
That’s tied for the second longest in U.S. history. The average U.S. expansion lasts 59 months. That means we’re now 47 months beyond the average of the last 14 cycles.
What’s next?
Market meltdown? Or melt-up?
CLICK HERE to watch this full interview.
