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After six straight quarters of growth accelerating, the top for U.S. economic growth may be closer than most investors think.

That’s according to Hedgeye’s predictive tracking algorithm for the U.S. economy, which now forecasts a subtle rollover heading into the back half of 2018. That’s important. Our GDP forecasts had remained higher than Wall Street’s for more than a year.

Now Hedgeye estimates are below Wall Street’s expectations for 1Q 2018, with year-over-year GDP topping out at 2.58%.


According to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, there’s plenty of data to support our outlook that growth will start to slow into the third quarter of 2018 as inflation accelerates (known as Quad 3 at Hedgeye).

“Once growth is slowing, you can talk about anything and it’s going to be negative,” McCullough says in the clip above from The Macro Show. “When we have growth slowing in the cards, we’re going to make that call. Right now the market is maybe starting to front run that. We’ll see.”

Question: Is The U.S. Economy Peaking? - the macro show