This weekend’s national election in Italy looms large for the continent. On the surface, it’s not as significant as France’s presidential election or the Brexit vote nearly two years ago in determining the future of the “European experiment;” but it’s important nevertheless for an economy that’s the third largest in the eurozone. Unfortunately, the election results are likely to turn out to be no different from earlier attempts to shore-up Italy’s fractured political scene. At this point, the behind-the-scenes biggest vote getter, based on polls now closed, appears to be none other than Former PM Silvio Berlusconi! But whether his coalition receives enough votes to form a government is still anyone’s guess.
- Mr. “Bunga-Bunga” is precluded from actually serving as PM; but he heads a coalition of right-of center parties that includes not just his “Forza Italia” political base, but also the anti-immigrant “League” (formerly the Northern League) plus the “Brothers of Italy” party, an off-shoot of the Italian neo-fascist movement.
- Needless to say, it’s an interesting and disturbing collection of political actors; party spokesmen play into deep voter unease, driven by understandable Italian voter concern over a migrant influx – because of the blockage of Balkan immigration routes – that’s now focused on southern Italy.
Like the French presidential elections, and more recently, the elections in Austria, Germany, and the Czech Republic, the Italian elections will be staged in the middle of tectonic shifts in public sentiment toward “Europe” and the meaning of “European integration.” Despite some encouraging continent-wide economic news, the domestic Italian business scene remains disappointing: GDP growth is barely over 1%, youth unemployment approaches 40%, and income disparities are yawning.
And on a broader, continent-wide level, anti-establishment and “soft authoritarian” trends are deepening. Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer, whose insights on the direction of European politics at the macro level are unfailingly insightful, commented last week that, for Europe, “Baseline political trends are absolutely horrible.”
Further, given the anti-EU and pro-Putin sentiment of the Berlusconi-led coalition, this election is a Russian troll farm’s smorgasbord; St. Petersburg hackers have been dining on Italy’s politics for months.
Bottom line: watch the election results carefully; they will signal whether Italy joins a growing chorus of European governments that reject a vision of Europe that is open, free, and economically integrated. If anti-EU election results continue to mount, it becomes obvious at some point, as Bremmer concludes, that the European experiment has failed. For an economy approaching $18 Trillion, a population of 500 million, and a political system still democratic (despite Russian influence operations), that would represent an epic, 21st-century geopolitical tragedy.
