GAS BUBBLE: President Trump floated his support for a 25-cent increase in the gas tax in a meeting with legislators yesterday as a way to offset the cost of his infrastructure proposal. While we know that coalitions in Washington are forming to fund lobbying and public relations campaigns to build support in Congress, we’d suggest they save their money. While there is some support for a gas tax on the Republican side of the aisle, we’ve been through two or three Congresses now where the notion has been floated only to have it summarily attacked by special interests who oppose it and discarded forthwith by the Republican leadership. The merits and demerits may get a hearing, but our belief continues to be that Speaker Paul Ryan will not bring forward any proposal to raise the tax.
DODD-FRANK REDUX SPLITS DEMS: The Senate is on the cusp of passing the first reforms to the original Dodd-Frank legislation just months before the legislation’s 10th anniversary in July. The typical interparty infighting you see on Capitol Hill is now turning into an intraparty battle that will be played out many times between now and election day. The bipartisan Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act (S. 2155) with 11 Democratic co-sponsors is one of the agenda items on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s legislative short list. The measure pares back a number of regulations and restrictions in force with a focus on smaller lenders and regional banks - the latter of the two benefitting by raising the threshold for regulation from $50 B in assets to $250 B. The problem for Democrats is that the ranking Democrat on the Banking Committee Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is opposed to the bill and is working in tandem with Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and other potential 2020 presidential wannabes and their progressive allies to sabotage the bill and launch broadsides at their Democratic brethren who cosponsored the bill. Make sure you check out the states in which the aforementioned Dems are up for reelection this fall – most are red. The bill’s chances for passage in the Senate are high, but will face some pushback in the House where a much more comprehensive measure passed last year.
NO MAP YET: The redistricting drama in Pennsylvania continues with Democratic Governor Tom Wolf rejecting the latest Congressional map drawn by Republicans in the legislature claiming their new map is just as biased and skewed as the old one. With implications for control of the U.S. House this November, Wolf and the Republican-controlled legislature have until close of business today to agree to a new map or the task will fall to the Pennsylvania State Supreme Court to redraw the lines before next Monday, February 19. The buzz amongst political pollsters is that when a new map is finally agreed upon, the Democrats could pick up as many as four or even five seats in Pennsylvania – Republicans currently hold 13 of 18 – putting a sizeable dent in the 24 seats needed to take back the U.S. House. Whatever map the state ends up with, legislators will need to implement it in time for the Pennsylvania primary on May 15. And about that special election on March 13 we wrote about yesterday in Pennsylvania’s 18 district…yes, that seat could be eliminated entirely with the winner having to run in another reconstituted district in less than two months.
IMMIGRATION BREAKTHROUGH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH: A group of centrist Senators agreed on the contours of an immigration bill last night, but the agreement was swiftly met with opposition by the White House. The draft agreement grants legal status to 1.8 million immigrants in addition to providing $25B in border security funding over a decade (with $2.5B earmarked for 2018) and curtails family-based immigration policies. It falls short of President Trump’s four-pronged approach which many Republicans are rallying behind. Debate on the issue will heat up today with votes on the centrist and Trump plans (and possibly others) with tomorrow’s deadline looming large.
REPORT FROM RIYADH: SAUDI 'SAFE SIDE' APPROACH IS GOOD NEWS FOR U.S. SHALE: Read Joe's piece here.
WHITE HOUSE POLITICS AND THE AT&T/TIME WARNER LITIGATION (T, TWX): AT&T may call the Antitrust Chief to the stand, challenging the DOJ's credibility in the Time Warner antitrust litigation. Read Paul Glenchur's piece here.
CONFERENCE CALL: GOOD START BUT JUST A START - WE ANALYZE DOD’S FY19 BUDGET REQUEST | Join General Emo Gardner on February 20 at 11am ET as he provides his unique perspective on the FY19 DOD budget request and the long-term defense budget environment. Check out the invite here.
LOWERED ASPIRATIONS FOR CERN? | PRESIDENT DECLINES TO REQUEST FULL FUNDING OF VA CONTRACT IN FY 2019: Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans writes the Budget request is for $1.2 billion of which $675 million is dedicated to EHR; stabilization of VistA system suggests long road. Read her note with Andrew Freeman here.
CALL REPLAY | IT'S A MAD, MAD, MAD, MAD WORLD: The global scene is more confusing and jumbled now than we have witnessed in at least half a century. CLICK HERE to listen to a replay of General Christman's call covering the true geopolitical risks impacting business investment and operations.
