In the midst of the always beautiful (and in this case, intriguing) quadrennial Winter Olympics was the diplomatic dust-up last week with one of America’s most important allies, South Korea. President Moon Jae-in relished the opportunity to host North Korean emissaries to the Olympics; and the culminating moment for the “Moon-shine policy” was a historic luncheon that the South Korean president hosted for Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, who extended an invite from her brother for Moon to visit Pyongyang.
- But the Trump White House, to put it charitably, did not share in the excitement. Anyone watching this diplomacy unfold, and sensing the heartburn it induced in Washington, had to have been reminded of Churchill’s famous quote, “There is only one thing worse than fighting with Allies, and that is Fighting Without Them.”
- The big fight, in this case, is how to denuclearize the Korean peninsula; Seoul and Washington share in the goal but differ on how to achieve it. Moon thinks the best way is to start a dialogue between the North and South, with the Olympics as a galvanizing vehicle; Washington strongly prefers that Moon cool it with his dialogue until Pyongyang feels the full effect of international sanctions -- all the better to achieve decisive results at the negotiating table down the line.
The Moon-initiated dialogue and Washington’s sharp disagreement with Seoul’s overture illustrate how adversaries try to split alliances -- by attacking intra-alliance “seams.” What “seam” in this case? The Moon-initiated North-South Korean Dialogue. Trump and his Vice President Mike Pence hated the idea, and Kim Jong Un exploited it masterfully. Alliance disagreements like this, frustrating as they can be, led Churchill in 1954 to pen his famous epigram.
- In this instance, the "seam" is likely to widen: if President Moon schedules his visit to Pyongyang, the White House will nervously watch for concessions by the South Korean leader -- on U.S.-South Korean military exercises, for example -- that will be pocketed by the North and likely lead nowhere toward the strategic goal of denuclearization.
VP Pence stuck to his guns during his Olympic visit and poured verbal cold water on the Moon-Kim dialogue. But Secretary of State Rex Tillerson did not; he suggested that talks are possible and that he is still looking for diplomatic opportunities to engage with the North. (Pence appeared to soften his stance shortly after his return to the U.S.; but Pyongyang still isn't buying what the White House is selling.)
- Tillerson and Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis both know that eventual dialogue is the only way short of conflict to achieve the shared Seoul-Washington goal. The two are also keenly aware of the Churchill warning; despite the U.S.-South Korea disagreements that surfaced last week, they will not let a historic ally fall by the wayside.
Bottom Line: Kim Jong Un knows where U.S.-alliance “seams” are. As Trump said last year about the North Korean leader, “he’s a pretty smart cookie!” He is. And over the last month, especially in his preparations for the Olympics, he showed it.
- Don't expect a resolution of the Korean nuclear crisis anytime soon -- not even "talks about talks" between Washington and Pyongyang.
