Despite an Associated Press report from Wednesday that said Trump had already decided to waive oil sanctions again on Iran, it appears the President has not made a final decision, and we are now hearing that it is possible that the decision may get pushed to early next week.
President Trump is scheduled to meet with his national security team at 2:45 pm today at The White House to discuss waiving sanctions on Iranian oil sales.
Our view is that Trump is leaning toward not issuing oil sanction waivers again and is frustrated by the lack of progress for Congressional legislation in the three months since he decertified the Iran deal in October. Decertification gives Congress a two-month window to consider legislation imposing new sanctions on an expedited timetable and not subject to a Senate filibuster.
Under US law the President must make a decision to waive Iran sanctions every 120 days in order for the US to keep its commitment under the Iran nuclear deal. The current deadline is January 12.
However, we are now hearing that it is possible that the sanction waiver decision may get pushed to early next week. If true, we view this as an ominous sign that Trump is not inclined to issue another waiver. Delaying a decision means Trump is not on board.
The thinking is that pushing the decision to early next week will provide more time over the holiday weekend for his advisors to show demonstrative evidence of some Congressional progress on passing a legislative fix for what Trump views as flaws in the deal.
Our own view is that the legislative effort has never gained traction and is going nowhere in the next few days or over the next several months.
All of this reminds us of a similar scenario from July 2017 to convince Trump to recertify the Iran deal. A national security meeting turned into an all-day lobbying effort by his advisors with Trump only relenting by requiring a plan to decertify at the next deadline in October.
Therefore, we believe that should Trump issue another waiver this time, it will end up providing more certainty that he will re-impose sanctions at the next waiver deadline on May 12. The Iran nuclear deal and waivers of oil sanctions on Iran are on life support.
