The clock is ticking as Senators move their way through the floor debate of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Yesterday, Senators who’ve been sitting on the fence were pulled over to the yes column by promises made by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Finance Chair Orrin Hatch (R-UT). Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) confirmed she would vote for the bill after agreeing to moderate the floor during the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge provision - as did Senator James Lankford (R-OK) and Senator Jerry Moran (R-KS) who had concerns over the deficit and the Obamacare individual mandate provision. Senators Susan Collins (R-ME) and Bob Corker (R-TN) have only grown more optimistic about the bill as have early “no’s” Ron Johnson (R-WI) Steve Daines (R-MT) who all voted in favor of the motion to proceed yesterday evening. Dozens of amendments are expected to be introduced today from Senators with heterogeneous interests, beginning with Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Mike Lee (R-UT) on the child care credit. Murkowski is expected to introduce health insurance stabilization measures with Collins who also plans to introduce a modification allowing for individuals to deduct up to $10K in SALT on properties. The final amendment will come from McConnell and/or Hatch and will contain all mathematical fixes and whatever magic dust he used to get to 50.
Once the final manager’s amendment hits, Senators are expected to pass the tax package tomorrow – and by our count the only remaining wildcards are maverick Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Jeff Flake (R-AZ), and Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) who appears to be mollified by the trigger language (now starting to raise the ire of some House members). If McConnell’s hand plays out, and they pass the bill Friday, the House and the Senate will go to Conference Committee next week. Even though they only have one week left before the scheduled recess, we suspect that consultations behind the scenes have already begun to narrow the differences in the bill - all while the Senate bill is in the midst of edging closer and closer to the House version with a handful of major provisions left to be resolved.
AMENDMENTS WE EXPECT TO BE INTRODUCED:
- Rubio and Lee - expand the child care credit and raise the corporate rate from 20-22% to pay for it
- Murkowski - add health insurance stabilization measures
- Collins - preserve the ability for individuals to deduct $10K in SALT on properties
- Johnson and Daines - increase the income deduction for pass-throughs from 17.4-20% with Johnson including an elimination of corporate SALT deductions to pay for it
- Corker and Flake - add a trigger mechanism to raise tax rates if economic gains are not realized
- Misc. - change pass-through provisions to match House’s, protect private-activity bonds, modify a church’s ability to contribute in political campaigns, protect education deductions and credits, modify carried interest provision on how to qualify income
WHIP COUNT:
