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It’s the most wonderful time of year – for retail. For some retailers, the holiday season can represent as much as 30% of annual sales.

With Black Friday and Cyber Monday both in the rear view, Hedgeye Retail Sector Head Brian McGough is keeping an eye on which companies will be on the “nice” list and which will get coal in their stockings.

On the “naughty” list? Target (TGT) and Kohl’s (KSS). They are the most susceptible to contraction this holiday season according to McGough.

“Target is a near-term miss,” he says in the video above. “Credit…just started to crack last quarter. You have huge, huge risk here.”

“Kohl’s…sells stuff people don’t generally want,” he adds.

“It’s been an offset to the regional mall. Well, guess what? There’s a new offset called the Internet. You won’t go to Kohl’s online, unless their credit is the only credit you can get.”

But there are plenty of names in retail to get excited about on the long side, McGough says.

Which ones? Watch the video above to find that out and more.

 McGough: My Top Retail Shorts & Longs This Holiday Season - Email graphic   Cyber Monday