The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 25th of January through the 29th is full of critical releases and events. Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.
On accelerating volume studies, the SP500 has finally broken my immediate term TRADE line of 1126.
At the same time, the VIX is breaking out to the upside above both my immediate term TRADE (19.69) and intermediate term TREND (22.48) lines. It’s not time to get emotional here. It’s risk management time.
Part of managing risk is not blowing out your long exposure with the monkeys on today’s intraday lows. Part of it is not stepping up buying everything on every down tick of the way either. Most of it is watching and waiting.
I’m watching the intermediate term TREND line of support for the SP500 very closely. In the chart below, that’s the solid green line down at 1095. We need to close below that line (and hold below that line) for my intermediate term bullish view on US Equities to change. That does not mean I am bullish at every price and every duration.
We have a 52% Cash position in our Asset Allocation Model and only a 6% allocation to US Equities. If 1095 holds, I’ll be stepping up that US Equity exposure. In the meantime, I am going to watch, and wait.
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
Sometimes a picture can capture much more than prose. This picture tells you who is in, and who is out, of the new populist club. Timmy better start interviewing.
President Obama is speaking just outside of Cleveland right now making statements like “I will continue to work for you” and “I win, when you win”…
As I stated in this morning’s missive, Obama Needs A Win. Odds are heightening that the loser is on the left side of this picture. Firing Geithner would be US Dollar bullish, and I remain bullish on a continued Buck Breakout here in Q1 as a result.
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As I combed through my notes from the ICR Exchange, I came across a subtle, but relevant call-out that was overlooked in the two-day confluence of buy-siders, sell-siders, bankers, and CEO’s. (For what it’s worth, there were more bankers than Sell Side analysts – that’s sad). During the breakout session for True Religion, there were many questions surrounding the company’s retail growth, salesforce transition, new hires, lower price point offerings (aka “cleaner looks”), and the state of the wholesale business.
Aside from some fashion commentary regarding the validity of the term “Jegging” (think skinny jean meets legging), the most interesting comment came from the CFO. He stated that he was surprised at the level of discounting on the company’s premium denim over the holiday period at major wholesale customers. Without getting specific on which retailers were promotional (it has to be any combination of Saks, Neimans, and Nordstrom), he also went on to say the company doesn’t really engage in “markdown” allowances so it shouldn’t be an issue. Fair enough. But, the real issue lies in the fact that the retailer(s) pulled the promotional trigger to sell the $250+ denim. If you believe discounting was a byproduct of slower product sales, then this may be something to watch as Spring rapidly approaches.
In addition, we’ve seen this film before. A brand that thinks it walks on water says ‘we don’t pay for markdowns’, but the reality is that the consumer votes with its wallet, and the CFO validated it in breakout discussions. So let me get this straight… we’ve got a high-end denim brand that is underperforming at a time when peers in other luxury categories are showing signs of life. This is at the same time the company is downshifting in price point as it expands into a lifestyle model, and it is opening up more of its own shops due to a weaker ‘pull model’ in the wholesale channel. I know the stock already crashed and burned, but are we the only ones that are concerned that we’re still looking at a company with 25.6% EBIT margins, and only a 1.4% marketing ratio? I repeat… only 1.4% of sales goes towards marketing. That might be fine when you sell a hundred million in revs to a few customers, but is low by a factor of 2-3x if the company really wants to make the jump to a sustainable growth trajectory at respectable and consistent margins.
R3: REQUIRED RETAIL READING
January 22, 2009
With the online channel proving to be an important driver of sales in 2009, retailers are now looking to leverage mobile applications in much the same way in the year ahead.
TODAY’S CALL OUT
With the online channel proving to be an important driver of sales in 2009, retailers are now looking to leverage mobile applications in much the same way in the year ahead. The technology here is very much in its infancy providing first movers significant latitude and creative license. Case in point, the unveiling of Abercrombie’s new transactional m-commerce site and sexy new application.
While ANF’s m-commerce site enables consumers to purchase product anytime-anywhere along with handy functionality including a store locator, the company’s application is nothing more than a hot model gallery – brand relevant of course. What’s interesting to note here is that when the teen panel out at ICR was asked how many use mobile devices to shop, only one of the twelve teens raised their hand suggesting this channel is indeed in its infancy – not for long.
At NRF’s recent Retail BIG Show, several companies exhibited their mobile offerings including features such as accelerated checkout, personalized service, and inventory verification. One of the key hurdles for technology providers is consumer comfort with online/mobile payment, which many view as a compromise to personal security. Technology offered by mFoundry provides one solution to this concern with its mobile application designed for Starbucks that lets customers check their card balances, reload, view transactions, and even pay using an iPhone at 16 Starbuck stores in Silicon Valley and Seattle. With the company targeting retailers, expect to see more early movers launching apps in the months ahead. As online was for retailers in 2009, we expect mobile applications to be a key incremental driver in 2010 for those that get it right.
LEVINE’S LOW DOWN
Target to Bring Message Back to Quality; Unveils Store Growth Plans - Wal-Mart Stores Inc.’s positioning as the country’s rock-bottom low-price leader has put it in an enviable position during the recession, which left Target frantically scurrying to change its perception as the “upscale” mass merchant with an emphasis on great design and the price premium it implied. Target shifted its advertising message from highlighting the “Expect More” part of its “Expect More, Pay Less” brand promise, to playing up the “Pay Less” aspect. But virtues such as quality, sharp design and designer-driven fashion will continue to be the retailer’s raison d’être, Gregg Steinhafel, Target’s chairman and chief executive officer, told Wall Street analysts on Thursday, adding that “apparel and home have recovered.” The Minneapolis-based retailer, which operates 1,744 stores in 49 states, plans to invest about $1 billion in the renovation of approximately 340 existing stores this year, which will include expanded grocery content in general merchandise stores and boosting layout, assortment and in-store experience in beauty, home, electronics and video games. Target will also focus on opening no more than 10 new stores this year with further opening plans in 2011, as well as testing out a smaller store format concept with an edited merchandise offering. Finally, Target is eyeing expansion outside of the U.S., within the next three to five years, in Canada, Mexico or Latin America. <licensemag.com> <wwd.com>
The North Face Names VP, Global Product - The North Face today announced the addition of Philip Hamilton, VP of global product. Hamilton, formerly of Nike, will be responsible for leading The North Face global product strategy to continually drive and execute innovative products, contributing to the brand’s global and regional growth initiatives. “Philip brings 20 years of experience in product design and development within the apparel industry,” said Steve Rendle, president, VF Outdoor Americas. “Throughout his 18-year career at Nike, Philip held progressive product management leadership roles in Europe, Asia and the U.S. We are thrilled to bring his expertise and leadership to our global product organization.” Hamilton most recently served as VP of product merchandising with Nike Asia-Pacific in Hong Kong, where he was responsible for managing the multi-billion dollar footwear, apparel and equipment business and leading a team of over 200 associates. He holds an MBA from University of Oregon, Eugene. <sportsonesource.com>
Macy's Might Turn to Outlet Stores - Macy’s might follow Bloomingdale’s in the industrywide push to open outlets, a sector surging in popularity among brands, retailers and consumers. “To me, Bloomingdale’s was the first priority and a natural opportunity,” Terry Lundgren, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Bloomingdale’s parent Macy’s Inc. told WWD, referring to the retailer’s move into outlets this year. “The upscale specialty department store group is well known in the outlet centers,” Lundgren added, referring to Nordstrom Rack, Neiman Marcus’ Last Call and Saks Fifth Avenue’s Off 5th chains. “Bloomingdale’s would be a natural addition. There is no plan for Macy’s outlets at the moment. As we learn the business with Bloomingdale’s, it could be something we consider.” Bloomingdale’s said Thursday it will open its first four fashion outlets this summer or fall, confirming a WWD report on Jan. 13 that the chain was headed toward the lucrative distribution channel. The outlets will be about 25,000 square feet each and will sell apparel, accessories, shoes and jewelry. They are opening in Bergen Town Center, Paramus, N.J.; Dolphin Mall, Miami; Potomac Mills, Woodbridge, Va., and Sawgrass Mills, Sunrise, Fla. <wwd.com>
Steve Madden Adds Jewelry Partner - Lucas Design International is on board to design a women's fashion jewelry collection for the Steve Madden brand. The range will hit better department stores and fine retailers, as well as Steve Madden stores and Web site this fall. "We look forward to working with the Lucas Design team to offer a jewelry collection that will reflect the Steve Madden design image," says Edward Rosenfeld, chairman and chief executive officer of Steve Madden. "We believe that fashion jewelry represents a great complement to the portfolio of categories that carry the Steve Madden name and that Lucas Design's expertise in the fashion jewelry business makes them an excellent partner for this endeavor." <licensemag.com>
Jessica Simpson to Introduce Jeanswear Offering - Jones Apparel Group has tapped Camuto Group to develop and distribute jeanswear under the Jessica Simpson Collection exclusively for fall. The range will include jeanswear ($20 to $24), as well as woven and knit tops ($9 to $20). The Jessica Simpson Collection already spans 20 apparel and accessory categories. <licensemag.com>
"New Normal" Psychology Dominates Consumer Behavior - Consumer psychology continues to feel the aftershocks of the financial crisis, as the "new normal" still dominates self-reported spending behaviors. While it is encouraging that 48% of Americans say they are feeling better about their financial situations and 56% say they are feeling pretty good about the amount of money they have to spend, their behavior seems to reflect something different -- a new normal. Seven in 10 consumers (70%) say they are cutting back on how much money they spend each week and 22% say they worried yesterday that they spent too much money. Consumer "new normal" behaviors have remained largely consistent since Gallup began monitoring these consumer spending perceptions and behaviors on a daily basis since June 2009. The December 2009 results reported here essentially reflect the aggregated monthly trends. The degree of consumers' optimism about their personal finances has remained about the same across age and income groups. At the same time, so have consumer "new normal" behaviors. <gallup.com>
The Macau Metro Monitor. January 22nd, 2010
MACAU VISITOR ARRIVALS RISE IN DECEMEBER RTTNews
According to the Statistics and Consensus Service, total visitor arrivals increased 6.7% y-o-y to 2.04MM in December. Visitors from the PRC accounting for nearly 50% of the arrivals, grew 17.8% y-o-y to 1.01MM, while visitors from HK, Singapore, Japan and Malaysia all decreased in December. For 2009, visitor arrivals grew 5.1% to 21.75MM.
OH BEIJING, WHAT DOEST THOU? Destination Macau
China's recent announcement of bank loan tightening and fears of a rate rise could have a negative impact on the junket generated business that makes up the majority of Galaxy and SJM's business. Destination Macau believes that bank tightening efforts will be aimed at hot money sources like junkets rather than the growing Masses. As "social harmony" continues to be government's prime directive, the authors believe that projects that create employment and consumer spending will be supported by generous monetary policy. At the same time, wealthy individuals who have the large portions of their wealth parked internationally are also less likely to be impacted by bank tightening. While Destination Macau doesn't see any immediate slowdown, as the first 20 days of the year saw gaming receipts grow 67% and are on track to hit MOP 12MM, they do think that gaming revenues will slow down post Chinese New Year.
HERE COMES THE REST OF COTAI Destination Macau
It sounds like Sands is about to resume construction on sites 5 & 6. Apparently they sat down with their contractors this week and assured that all their suspended contracts would be honored. The $1.75BN needed to fund the project is already in place as five banks (Barclays, Goldman, Citi, BNP Paribas, and UBS) are beginning to syndicate their generous commitments. David Sylvester, the group's head of retail, will be relocating back to Macau once Marina Bay Sands is open, as will Matthew Pryor, global head of construction for LVS. The opening date is tentatively set for third quarter of next year.
LVS is also likely to put the 300+ apartment-hotel units managed by Four Seasons on the market shortly. According to Destination Macau the marketing strategy will involve asking the hundreds of high-rollers who currently are required to deposit sums of "front-money" into bank accounts if they want to play at the VML properties to use use those millions of idle dollars to buy an apartment instead. LVS can then simply put a lien against the asset to cover the gaming account.
Property prices have been strong lately, but its unclear if LVS will be able to get $300MM or $900MM of proceeds (based on original price talk of $2,000 psft). In order to get around government restrictions of residential sales on Cotai, the units will be sold under a "co-op" model, rather than as strata-title. If LVS is successful, there is little doubt that others will follow suit.
COD GOES ALL-OUT Destination Macau
According to gaming regulator sources, COD's mass floor winnings are up more than 25% (m-o-m) after the first 3 weeks of the year. Crown Towers were also full this past weekend, suggesting that VIP play was doing okay as well. COD has been pursing a very aggressive marketing campaigning, blanketing the HK ferry terminal, the TurboJet boats, and every access point to Macau with coupons leading gamblers to a HK$14MM in total giveaways at COD (compared to just HK$1.5MM at the Wynn). Despite all the promotions and marketing efforts, there can be little doubt that Venetian is still the preferred property in Cotai.
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