The moves by Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) over the last three weeks have been nothing short of tectonic. The “quakes” include efforts by MBS to rein in extremist clerics, soften Saudi Arabia’s Wahabist religious theology, battle corruption by arresting hundreds (including princes), open opportunities for women, and liberate the economy from its oil dependence; these have been applauded by President Trump, a supportive gesture which, despite the obvious internal risks to the Kingdom, seems appropriate.

 ·       MBS has clearly upset the generation-long Saudi governance model by consolidating unprecedented power – to himself and his family. Since the death of the Kingdom’s founder, Abdul Aziz, in 1953, power had been distributed to his sons and grandsons; no more; future succession lines will run only through Mohammed bin Salman when, as expected, his ailing father abdicates and MBS becomes King.

 ·       What is kept alive is lineage to the so-called “Sudairi Faction,” the seven sons of Abdul Aziz and his favored wife, Hussa Sudairi; MBS’s father is one of the seven. This lineage might bestow a modicum of princely legitimacy on MBS since all Saudi Kings following Abdul Aziz were a member of the Faction. But regardless, for Saudi governance, we are witnessing a revolutionary transformation.

While most Middle East experts might approve of MBS’s historic internal moves to bring the Kingdom into the 21st Century, there remain significant concerns about domestic push-back, led by conservative clerics, for example, or by aggrieved members of the royal family singled out for “corrupt” practices. On top of this, however, are additional worries regarding multiple "outside" initiatives that the Crown Prince is undertaking – at the same time that he is making his bold “inside” moves.  Consider:

  *   The internal conflict in Yemen, intensified with Saudi support and urged on by MBS, is going badly; further, it is a humanitarian disaster of the first order.

  *   The Sunni family quarrel with Qatar, also an MBS initiative, is nowhere close to being resolved; and it is pushing both Qatar and Turkey closer to Iran.

  *   The Saudi foreign ministry has declared the Yemeni rocket attack on Riyadh two weeks ago an "act of war" by Iran, a statement that the Saudis are in no position to back up.

  *   And finally, MBS has sown confusion with his "recall" of Lebanon's Sunni PM, Saad Hariri, evidently because Hariri wasn't hard enough on Iran-supported Hezbollah.

  *   The latest reports from the region suggest MBS is backing off, allowing Hariri to return to Beirut.  If Hariri stays, this will be a welcomed development; MBS’s “recall” threatened the always fragile stability of yet another country hard by Israel’s border.

Despite the authoritarian nature of MBS’s "Ritz Carlton Roundup," most of the changes are both overdue and deeply supported by the Kingdom’s population under the age of 30. But coming together with his outside moves, this all adds additional risk and uncertainty for any foreign investor thinking of dipping more deeply into the Saudi Kingdom. However, despite some over-the-top worries about MBS starting or stumbling into a war with Iran, that is unlikely; proxy wars that push back against Iran’s destabilizing regional activities will continue; but MBS knows that an all-out direct shooting war with Tehran would kill the critical foreign investment he desperately needs.

Bottom line: Whether MBS succeeds in the overhaul of the Saudi economy and with his socio-religious moves against extremism and on behalf of women is anyone's guess at this point; but his numerous and impulsive external initiatives are significantly raising the regional worry factor. In this area especially, Mr. Trump’s national security team needs to stay in close “Riyadh over-watch.”