• Badge

    A Decade of Revolution Declare Your Research Independence

Shares of hedge fund Och Ziff (OZM) have had a great run. And there may be substantial upside ahead.

Since Financials analyst Jonathan Casteleyn added OZM to his best ideas long list, the stock has gained +40%. “It’s one of those distressed securities, and these can be your best stocks,” he says in the video above from The Macro Show.

Investors have steered clear of the stock for years now as bribery scandal allegations hung over the company. There’s clarity on that front now. In September 2016, Och-Ziff agreed to pay $412 million to resolve U.S. probes into the hedge fund’s role in bribing officials in several African countries.

Investors should give the company a look, Casteleyn says. Increased distributions—unlocked via improving fund performance—may soon give a boost to the company’s 2% dividend yield.

“Historically, they should pay out about 20 cents [versus 2 cents currently],” Casteleyn says. “They may not payout that much, but even a 15 cent distribution on a $3.40 stock is decent, that’s a 6% or 7% yield.”

Add in an additional 50 cents in balance sheet gains that will be distributed over the next three years or so, and you can make a compelling case for the stock to be a lot higher.

Casteleyn says there’s still 50% upside to $5 per share, especially as fund flows improve.

“The rate of change of flows is improving and they could actually see some inflow for the first time in five years. That will be the catalyst in 2018,” Casteleyn says.

Why Och-Ziff Shares Have 50% Upside - investing ideas