As expected, President Trump decertified the Iran Nuclear Deal on Friday saying that “Iran is not living up to the spirit of the deal.” In speech from the White House, Trump outlined a new strategy today to address what he called the “controversial” and “one-sided” Iran Nuclear Deal that was “purely a short term and temporary delay in Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon.”
If renegotiations do not produce results, Trump said “the agreement will be terminated.” Therefore, we see about a 2-3 month period for potential Congressional action as well as international diplomacy led by the EU. However, Iran seems highly unlikely to negotiate or make concessions. As a result, we believe US sanctions on Iran’s crude exports, as well as insurance and shipping sanctions, are likely to be re-imposed in early 2018. This is the biggest geopolitical catalyst for higher prices in years.
Last week we held a Flash Call for clients to dicuss the then-impending Trump decision to decertify the Iran nuclear deal. The call outlines next steps in Congress and for renegotiations as well as likely sanctions and impact on the oil sector. For Energy Policy Subscibers: CLICK HERE for video & audio replays.
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