We held a call with David Hoppe, former chief of staff to Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Macro Policy analyst JT Taylor as they covered the road ahead for the Big Six’s tax reform plan - in addition to the policies, process, and politics Congressional leaders will encounter as they advance their legislative crown jewel. Find out why Hoppe thinks there’s a ~60% chance tax reform will happen and a slightly better than even chance Congress will pull it off before 2018.
The main beneficiaries of the tax framework are corporations, middle-class families, and pass through family businesses. The framework’s rough estimate for cuts equates to $5 trillion over ten years with an estimated $3.5 trillion in offsets. The Big Six have set the corporate rate at 20%, even though the president has targeted 15% and will cut Individual tax brackets will from seven to three (12, 25 and 35). One of the main hurdles for Congressional leadership was garnering support from the conservative Freedom Caucus for the FY18 budget. Hoppe says the group was holding out until they saw the tax framework instructions in the budget package and is now willing to vote for it. We have laid out their ambitious timeline below and you can dive into the details for specific provisions with Hoppe and Taylor on the replay.
- House will vote on an FY18 budget the week of October 2
- Senate will vote on an FY18 budget the following week
- They will go to conference to work out their differences in mid- October
- Early October House Ways and Means (W+M) will start the informal writing process through internal debates on tax reform.
- W+M plans to mark up and vote on a tax package by the third or fourth week of October
- House will vote on the tax package the last week of October or first week of November
- Senate Finance and vote in the full Senate before the Thanksgiving break
- They will reconcile when they return from Thanksgiving and pass a final bill in early to mid-December
- White House signing ceremony before the end of the year?