Call Details
Time: Tomorrow, Wednesday, September 20th at 1pm EDT
Toll Free:
Toll:
UK: 0
Confirmation Number: 13664625
Live Video Link: CLICK HERE
In our #retail5.0 Black Book in March, my team outlined the four Mega-Cycles in retail since the first Macy’s store opened in 1858 – and how we think the fifth mega-cycle (which started in 2015) will unfold over the next decade.
Since then, all of our conclusions were challenged, many were validated, and one or two were flat-out debunked. One thing that’s fer sure is that even the most prominent thought-leaders in retail lack the insight as to how this beast will unfold (or if they do, they have solid poker faces).
I’m 100% sure that 90% of retail CEOs lack the historical context as to how retail has evolved over time, and how history has repeated itself over and over again – but with different disintermediators at each major turn. A bold statement, I know (call me cocky…it’s not accurate, but I’m cool w the label) but it’s true. I’ll prove it in #retail5.0.1 on September 20th.
You know my schtick…I’ll only make a call on a stock if I think (key word THINK) I know more than the strat planners of a company – AND I have numbers far off of consensus as a result. Most CEOs are focused on the primary strategic risks -- i.e. Bed Bath worried about Wayfair, H&M focused on Primark, TGT eyeing WalMart -- but aren't focused on the second and third derivative risks. For example, how Amazon streaming NFL games can/will ultimately impact margins on fake UGGs at Kohl’s, Sonos speakers at Best Buy, avocados at Stop-n-Shop…and why it could actually allow Nike to reaccelerate market share in the US (yes I just said that).
We’re fleshing out a dozen key developments in Retail over six months – and more importantly what we think will happen in the next six months (and the next 10 years). Here are some of the big ones…
1) Square footage is being calculated the wrong way. We actually might not be overstored…the supply chain is egregiously underutilizing its DCs, and focusing too much on increasingly unproductive brick and mortar stores. This is a HUGE opportunity for the CEOs that get it. We can and should be ahead of all of them.
2) AMZN/Whole Foods was just a taste. People were surprised that day, but 20 min later said ‘yah that made sense’. I think we’re about to see a wave of head scratcher deals up and down the retail supply chain and will go cross-sector like we saw in the 1980s.
3) The concept of ‘the Amazoning of Retail’ is a buzzword that’s likely to be dead in 18 months. The current cadence of share shift is not sustainable. It’s not. Smart companies will partner with Amazon instead of getting steamrolled again.
4) This Nike/Amazon deal is humongous – for Amazon, that is. We’ll prove why it is likely more of a game changer for AMZN than it is Nike.
5) AR/VR…yes the iPhone X just took retail a big step closer to Augmented/Virtual Reality. Which CEOs know this? What sectors can capitalize most?
6) Where does the terminal value lie? It’s pretty much binary and we’ll go through pretty much everyone in retail to answer this question. The bigger, and more investable, question is “of the companies that have terminal value, how much of it will be left for equity holders?”
7) Are we about to see the biggest wave of quality IPOs in consumer discretionary?
