Good Morning and welcome back to The Macro Show, you can watch the show live HERE and access the associated slides (once they become available) HERE.
Hedgeye's Top 3 Things
Below are the top three things from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough’s Macro Notebook this morning:
1) NDX - In other un-reported ramp news, both the NDX (Nasdaq 100) and Composite Index punched fresh new all-time closing highs (again) yesterday at 5950 and 6422, respectively. This puts the NDX +5.4% for the MTD and +22.4% YTD as U.S. Growth, as a Style Factor, continues to pound both Value and Reflation.
2) USD - So what does USD down another -0.4% on the Fed “news” and -6.8% since Reflation Peaked in Q117 mean from here? We see the USD big time oversold vs. Euros at $1.17 and… if we’re right on both U.S. Wage Growth and GDP #Accelerating throughout Q3, the next Fed pivot to get ahead of may very well be another pivot back to hawkish from dovish.
3) DAX - In U.S. (Growth) vs. “Long Europe on valuation” news, the NDX 100 is beating the DAX by +830 basis points in the last month alone! DAX Down another -0.4% this morning and -5.0% since it put in its YTD peak in JUN; both European growth and inflation slowing in Q3/Q4 is a big part of what we're thinking in terms of Euro topping and USD bottoming here