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Takeaway: This is an excerpt from a research note sent to institutional customers this morning.

Even if you don’t care about Hibbett Sports (HIBB), today you do/should. Perma-shorts are sighted less than Bigfoot, but when a company has no online presence because Nike says “don’t even think about doing that” ... you know it’s bad. Our call for earnings going from $4.80 to $1.32 might prove bullish. #perma

Here’s What We Said About Hibbett Sports In February 2015 - z hibb

  • Hibbett pre-announced 2Q  this morning…EPS guided to about a 20 cent LOSS, vs Street at 15 cents in earnings.
  • Comps guided at -10%, for context the worst comp in the recession for HIBB was -6.6%.
  • Gross margins are guided to be down significantly, our math says in the 300-400bps range.
  • The company gave little detail on the issues here, simply noting challenging sales trends. In other words, it does not have a clue. 
  • Margins peaked at 14% in FY12. Were 9.9% last year. Are tracking 6.6% this year. En route to 3%.
  • Lesson here…at each stopping point, people probably thought ‘damn, I missed it.”

There’s more of these out there. There’s also the inverse though.

Here’s what we said in our HIBB Black Book Feb 6, 2015.

Here’s What We Said About Hibbett Sports In February 2015 - hibb

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