Editor's Note: Below is an excerpt from an institutional research note written earlier this month by Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe. To read this entire note email sales@hedgeye.com.
TREND WATCH: What’s Happening? Across Europe and the United States, support for anti-establishment candidates is rising. The success of far-left and far-right political campaigns is being powered by young people, who are losing faith in liberal democratic institutions—and are surprisingly open to undemocratic or even authoritarian alternatives.
Our Take: Though political disaffection has been growing among all age groups, there are real differences in how younger and older generations view politics that reflect their respective phases of life and divergent views of government—and point to a broad desire among Millennials for security, simplicity, and planning in all areas of their lives.
At age 39, the newly elected Emmanuel Macron is the youngest president in the history of France. He’s younger, in fact, than most of his voters: French Millennials, eager for radical change, mostly preferred either the far-left or far-right alternative to the centrist Macron.
The election results in France point to a youth insurgency that has boosted parties and candidates at the political extremes around Europe. In the first round of elections, when voters had their pick of candidates who promised to maintain the status quo, a majority of young voters rejected centrism by casting their ballots for the far-right Marine Le Pen and the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon (a Hugo Chávez fan who favors 100% tax rates on the rich). By contrast, voters over age 60 preferred Macron, pushing him forward to the next round.
Even when the field was reduced to two choices, an impressive share of young voters went far-right. Although Macron defeated the far-right Marine Le Pen in every age group, Le Pen secured 34% of the vote among 18- to 24-year-olds and 40% among 25- to 34-year-olds. By contrast, she won just 27% of the vote among the 65+.
Some are saying that Macron’s victory, coming after Brexit and the election of Trump, represents a “turning of the tide” against populism. Not hardly. Both Brexit and Trump were in fact statistical coin tosses: Either could easily have turned out differently. Ditto for the French election. If the neophyte Macron had stumbled a bit in his final two weeks, the second round could have pitted Mélenchon against Le Pen—a contest that would have triggered white-knuckle panic on the Euronext Paris exchange.
As it is, Macron comes to power with no party and a thin, technocratic mandate in a nation clamoring for sweeping reform. He will be lucky to avoid the fate of Italy’s Matteo Renzi, another charismatic young whiz kid whose stint as leader was overwhelmed last December by populist fury.
