UBS upgraded DRI this morning going into the quarter.  Casual dining in general does not look good and I don’t think DRI’s numbers will look good so I don’t understand the reason for getting behind this name now.


Darden is scheduled to report fiscal 2Q10 results after the close tomorrow.  My EPS estimate is $0.02 shy of the street’s $0.41 per share estimate.  The extent to which commodity costs prove favorable on a YOY basis is the biggest question mark and could provide some upside to my numbers.  After the first quarter when food costs as a percentage of sales declined nearly 200 bps YOY, management said the food cost benefit would continue into the second and third quarter but would moderate somewhat from Q1.  Management offered this Q2 outlook with a high level of confidence as 80%-90% of its commodity input costs were locked in for the first half of the year at that time. 


Relative to full-year EPS numbers, estimates have come down 2% since last quarter to a much more reasonable range.  I am still a couple of pennies lower than the street but estimates are not as glaringly high as they were going into the Q1 report.


Management lowered the low end of its blended same-store sales guidance after Q1 to -3% to flat.  Even a -3% number assumes some acceleration from Q1’s reported -5.3% and based on industry trends as reported by Malcolm Knapp, we are not yet seeing any improvement.  As I said following Q1, management stated that some of the implied improvement will result from the “arithmetic” or easy comparisons, but the -3% assumes a pick-up in 2-year average trends as well. 


CEO Clarence Otis also said DRI’s guided comparable sales range assumes some acceleration of share gains relative to the industry.  During the first quarter, DRI’s three largest brands combined (Olive Garden, Red Lobster and LongHorn) outperformed the Knapp industry benchmark, excluding DRI, by 250 bps and Mr. Otis said he expects to widen that gap to 300 bps for the full year.  With discounting mounting and DRI choosing not to play the discounting game at LongHorn and Red Lobster, in particular, it might be difficult to increase the company’s gap to Knapp.  I am not saying that DRI cannot achieve -3% comparable sales growth for the year, but again, based on current industry trends, it is not a given and will rely on a pick-up in overall restaurant demand.


For the second quarter, my blended same-store sales estimate of -4.5% is only a little light relative to the street’s expectation of -4.3%.  On a brand by brand basis, my estimates are less aggressive than the street at Red Lobster and LongHorn but more favorable for Olive Garden.  I am modeling -8% at Red Lobster, -8% at LongHorn and -1.5% at Olive Garden.  We know that blended numbers came in roughly -4% to -5% in September (1.9% better than Knapp) because management stated that September was running similar to August.


It is important to remember that all of the company’s concepts are facing difficult comparisons in November due to the holiday shift which benefited Q2 last year and will negatively impact Q2 results this year.  For reference, this Thanksgiving holiday shift benefited last year’s Q2 same-store sales numbers by 70 bps.  Comparisons at Red Lobster are particularly difficult in September as well so a tough September combined with a tough November should yield a pretty ugly number for the quarter, even in light of the company’s running its Endless Shrimp promotion going into the quarter.


On its last earnings call, management talked about doing some more value initiatives at Red Lobster but insisted that it would not damage the brand by participating in the discounting tactics used by its peers.  DRI’s ability to build traffic in the near term will depend on how far management will go to push value and blur the line around discounting.  I hope management will further address its sales building initiatives for Red Lobster on its Q2 earnings call.


Relative to margins, I am modeling a 100 bp contraction in Q2 margins following Q1’s 55 bp margin expansion.  As I said before, the extent to which food costs are favorable in the quarter will factor in here.  Regardless, I think margins will continue to decline for the balance of the year.


Working against margins in Q2:

-Lapping cost saving initiatives implemented in 2Q09

-There will be spending in this year's second quarter related to the company’s field supervisory conferences. Many of these conferences were postponed last year because of the difficult economic environment and the resumption this year will boost selling, general and administrative expenses in this year's second quarter compared to the same quarter last year.

-In addition, last year's second quarter included employee benefit-related favorability that the company does not anticipate this year. That favorability, which was included in selling, general and administrative expenses, was fully offset over the balance of the year by increased tax expense.



Required Retail Reading: Footwear Industry Sales Trends/Data Update


December 16, 2009





Synching industry sales trends/data from NPD and SportScan with the same-store sales of individual companies is part of our process at Research Edge.  And since this is part of our process, it can also be a part of yours.  If you are interested in seeing company specific data in the footwear and sports apparel space, please contact us so that we can set you up with weekly or monthly customized reports on the companies you care about.



Yesterday we received a key data point that shakes, but does not break our bullish outlook on the family footwear space.  Sales sequentially fell from an impressive 17.7% growth rate in September to 7.4% in October to -0.7% in November.  While November’s data is negative, it doesn’t change our fundamental view.  Here’s why:


  • The November compare for Shoe Chains is the most difficult monthly compare in Q4 (November ‘08: +1.5%, December ‘08: +0.2%, January ‘09: -4.7%)
  • The month of November accounts for only 31% of the quarter while December accounts for 45%.
  • The data does not include fashion footwear, which is where the majority of the boot category rests.  And with the return of cold weather, we can’t ignore boots as they become an more meaningful percentage of 4Q sales.  Recall that most retailers are reporting this is one of the best boot seasons in the past several years.  We estimate boots as a category represent about 20% of the 4Q business.  While some individual retailers are seeing boot sales increase upwards of 50%, we estimate that the overall industry is growing somewhere around 20%.  If we factor in a low to mid single digit lift from boots on top of the baseline trends, November shakes out in the +3% to +4% range which is a sequential slow down, but still better than indicated.       


Required Retail Reading: Footwear Industry Sales Trends/Data Update - FL 12 16 09 Fig1 


Required Retail Reading: Footwear Industry Sales Trends/Data Update - image png


Company impact:


Required Retail Reading: Footwear Industry Sales Trends/Data Update - FL 12 16 09 Fig3


  • SCVL faces the greatest potential risk according to the math.
  • PSS, DSW, and SCVL face easier compares in Q4 than they did in Q3.  BWS face a more difficult Q4 compare down 1.5% vs. -6.7% in Q3.
  • Shoe chains haven’t underperformed athletic specialty stores since February 2009.  The outperformance of athletic specialty has been fueled by the toning/fitness category.


Required Retail Reading: Footwear Industry Sales Trends/Data Update - 4




  • Despite the belief that ecommerce is potentially a thorn in the side of traditional bricks and mortar retailing, there are some interesting trends developing for those with a bricks and clicks strategy. Both Wal-Mart and Best Buy are seeing a substantial portion of their online customers opting for in-store pick-up rather than delivery to one’s home. Wal-Mart is suggesting 40% of its consumers are picking up in-store while Best Buy is tracking at 30%. Even more surprising is that these statistics were provided during the current holiday season, a time in which free or almost-free shipping is standard.
  • In the first sign that gift cards are back after a challenging holiday season last year, Best Buy reported that it’s seeing strong trends in the category. Sales of gift cards were up 40% y/y heading into Black Friday and increased over 100% during Friday and Saturday of the Black Friday weekend. Historically, consumers at BBY spend on average 2x the face value of their gift card when redeemed.
  • Celebrity gossip sites are all over the latest photo shoot for the next Candies marketing campaign featuring Britney Spears. Word has it that famed-photographer Annie Leibovitz conducted the shoot for Kohl’s in Los Angeles last week. While the Candies ad campaigns have historically been centered on the spokeswoman, this is sure to gain added attention given Leibovitz’s stature behind the camera.




G-III Apparel plans public share offering - G-III Apparel Group Ltd. said Tuesday it plans to sell common stock in a public offering to fund general operating costs and possible acquisitions. The company, based in New York, did not say how many shares it would sell or how much they would cost. Piper Jaffray & Co. is the bookrunning manager. Lazard Capital Markets is co-lead manager of the offering while Brean Murray, Carret & Co. and KeyBanc Capital Markets are co-managers. G-III Apparel shares fell $1.05, or 5 percent, to $20.20 in after-hours trading Tuesday, as investors worried about the stock possibly becoming more diluted. <>


Dave McTague Named Cole Haan CEO - Cole Haan has named Dave McTague as its new chief executive officer, effective Jan. 4, succeeding James Seuss, who has decided to leave the company. Seuss, who held the ceo post since May 2006, could not be reached for comment, but it is understood he has another job, which could not be learned at press time. McTague will report to Eunan McLaughlin, president of Nike Inc. Affiliates, which owns and operates the accessories firm. Prior to his most recent role as executive vice president of partnered brands for Liz Claiborne Inc., which he left on Dec. 4, McTague served as president of Converse Apparel from 2005 to 2007. Nike owns Converse as well. <>


Collective Brands Promotes John Smith - Collective Brands Inc. has appointed John Smith to SVP and GM of retail for its Performance and Lifestyle Group. Smith joined the company in 2005 and will now report to Stride Rite Children’s Group’s new president, Sharon John. The former SVP of store development and procurement will now lead all retail efforts for the Performance and Lifestyle Group, creating a new strategy in partnership with the Stride Rite Children’s Group. “Applying John’s extensive retail knowledge and strategic thinking directly to the Performance and Lifestyle Group operation will enable us to take our retail businesses in this important and growing unit of our company to the next level,” Matt Rubel, CEO of Collective Brands, said in a statement.  “This move ... shows our commitment to the PLG retail business — a critical initiative for Collective Brands’ hybrid business model.” In his new position, Smith proposes to expand the 360-store Stride Rite chain. <>


Abercrombie & Fitch Creates Stir in Tokyo - Hundreds of shoppers hit Ginza Tuesday morning to be the first to enter Abercrombie & Fitch’s new flagship here. By the 11 a.m. opening, an estimated 1,000 people had lined up to get into the American brand’s first store in Japan. The first customer in line, Hiroaki Kato of nearby Kanagawa, arrived at 9 a.m. on Monday to stake out his spot. “All I’ve had is a single cup of coffee,” he said. Models dressed in jeans, T-shirts, checked flannel shirts and wool jackets greeted customers as they entered the store. Inside, more models, many barely dressed, roamed the shop floor in front of a massive wall mural. The first 500 customers in line were given long, narrow posters displaying a male model’s bare back, the same image that was blown up on the sides of an advertising truck that made its rounds through the area.  <>


Iconix Brand Group Said to Be Breaking Off Talks to Buy Playboy - Iconix Brand Group Inc. is breaking off talks to buy Playboy Enterprises Inc. after determining it would be too complicated to separate the Playboy brand from the company’s other assets, said two people familiar with the matter.

Iconix, the owner of London Fog and Danskin, was interested in licensing the brand and had wanted to divest, shut down or find partners for Playboy units, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks were private. The situation is still fluid and may be resolved soon, another person said.

Tara Levy, a spokeswoman for Iconix, and Martha Lindeman, a spokeswoman for Chicago-based Playboy, couldn’t be reached to comment outside of regular business hours yesterday.  <>


Cabela's Amends Credit Facility - Cabela's Inc. successfully completed the second amendment to its Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement. The amendment allows the company to contribute up to $225 million of capital to World's Foremost Bank, the company's wholly-owned bank subsidiary, in calendar year 2010 plus up to $25 million of capital in any fiscal year. The company's ability to make the $225 million capital contribution in 2010 is contingent on changes in accounting rules and regulatory guidelines. The company paid a fee of 50 basis points of the revolving commitment amount to the lending banks to facilitate the amendment. For accounting purposes this fee will be amortized over the remaining term of the credit facility, which expires June 30, 2012. The applicable margin associated with borrowings outstanding under the agreement was unchanged. <>


European Optical Titan to Acquire FGX International - FGX International Holdings Limitied, which makes Foster Grant, Gargoyles, Ironman, Champion and Body Glove sunglasses, has signed a definitive agreement to merge with a subsidiary of Essilor International of Charenton-le-Pont, France. Under the terms of the merger agreement, which was unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both companies, FGX International shareholders will receive $19.75 per share in cash upon completion of the merger, for an aggregate value of approximately $565 million, including the assumption of FGX debt of approximately $100 million. FGXI was trading at $17.91 Wednesday morning before markets opened. If completed, FGX International will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Essilor. <>


Esprit Plots Growth, Seeks Revival in U.S. - The brand, which has had a European and Asian focus for the last five years, is trying to make an impact with larger, architecturally significant stores and an edgy new advertising and image campaign. A three-level, 15,000-square-foot Esprit flagship is set to open at 21-25 West 34th Street here in March. It will be Esprit’s largest store in North America and second largest worldwide. When it bows, the flagship will be Esprit’s fifth unit in Manhattan. Existing stores are in the Flatiron District, Fifth Avenue, SoHo and Columbus Circle. The new flagship will offer men’s casual, men’s collection, women’s casual, women’s collection, women’s EDC and men’s and women’s accessories.  <>


Henri Bendel Launches New Concept in California - Henri Bendel opened a pair of concept stores last month in Southern California that focus exclusively on Bendel-branded merchandise, including jewelry and accessories, beauty products and an assortment of edibles. A 2,400-square-foot boutique launched at South Coast Plaza in Costa Mesa, Calif., followed by a 2,000-square-foot store at Beverly Center mall in Los Angeles. The Limited Brands Inc.-owned luxury chain has sharpened its focus on its most profitable areas, while getting out of apparel — a companywide shift. The parent company sold off majority stakes in The Limited and Express chains in 2007. <>


Jones Apparel Group, Inc. Names Stacy Lastrina Chief Marketing Officer - Jones Apparel Group, Inc. (NYSE: JNY) ("Jones") today announced that Stacy Lastrina has been promoted to the position of Chief Marketing Officer. Ms. Lastrina, who previously served as Executive Vice President of Marketing and Creative Services, will continue to report to Wesley R. Card, President and Chief Executive Officer, Jones Apparel Group. Ms. Lastrina has 19 years of experience with Jones Apparel Group, having joined Nine West Group in 1991 as Director of Marketing. Jones acquired Nine West Group in 1999.  <>


The North Face Sues The South Butt - The North Face has filed a patent infringement suit against a teenager marketing fleeces, T-shirts and shorts under the brand name "The South Butt." In its lawsuit, TNF alleges James Winkelmann Jr., Williams Pharmacy and The South Butt LLC infringed on its patent with their parody product. Winklemann, 18, created The South Butt two years ago and began selling them through Williams Pharmacy, which owns four drug stores in the St. Louis area. The brand features fleeces, T-shirts and other apparel adorned with a square white on red logo that is very similar to TNF's iconic logo. The South Butt uses the tagline "Never Stop Relaxing" in a parody of TNF's "Never Stop Exploring."  <>


Lorpen Expands US Sales Force by 35% - Lorpen, known for its performance socks for outdoor and wintersport enthusiasts,  announced it has greatly expanded its U.S. sales force to keep up with the company’s solid growth in 2009. Lorpen has partnered with the following agencies and independent sales reps that specialize in the outdoor and wintersports industries: Great Pacific Sales will cover the Calif., Nev., Ariz. territory; Will Mason and Deno Dudunake will cover the New England territory; Continental Divide Sports will cover the Utah, Colo., Wyo., N.M. territory; Joe File will cover the Ohio, Ind., Ill., Ky., Mich. territory; Kent Fried will cover the Md., Del., DC, NY, Penn. territory; and Outdoor Marketing Alliance will cover 16 states in the Southeast and Midwest territories. <>


CFOs Say Customer Outreach Not Hurt by Marketing Cuts - Retail finance executives cut where and what they could in 2009, including marketing budgets, but the flexibility of their marketing partners and emphasis on productivity allowed them to maintain or even increase their advertising outreach. This was among the key findings in a survey of chief financial officers from 26 specialty and department store retailers in the U.S. and Canada conducted by Karabus Management Inc., the Toronto-based retail advisory subsidiary of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. The 26 stores participating in the second-annual cfo survey ranged in volume from $140 million to $9 billion, with 46 percent public and the remainder private. Forty percent of the cfo’s surveyed said they’d moved away from traditional broad-based advertising and toward more targeted promotions geared to existing customers, and half indicated that, because of savings offered by their media and marketing partners, they were able to cut back on marketing expenditures without materially affecting their customer outreach efforts. <>


U.S.-Made Apparel Prices Rise - Wholesale prices for U.S.-made apparel rose 0.2 percent in November compared with October, and increased 0.3 percent versus a year earlier, the Labor Department said Tuesday in its Producer Price Index. Women’s apparel prices advanced 0.2 percent in month-to-month and year-to-year comparisons. Men’s apparel prices were flat in November compared with the previous month, but gained 0.8 percent from a year ago. Prices for all U.S.-made goods and services increased 1.8 percent in November, driven primarily by a temporary spike in the cost of fuel.  “There is nothing in this report that points to incipient or sustained pressure on broad prices in the economy,” said Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist at IHS Global Insight.  <>


European Retailers Upbeat About Christmas - Shoppers across Europe are loosening their purse strings for the Christmas season, according to retailers, who are upbeat about sales so far. European economies continue to struggle — especially in such key markets as the U.K. and Germany — resulting in trends around the Continent that are similar: While shoppers are more than happy to spend, many are trading down, sticking to their budgets and investing in classic, enduring pieces rather than trendy ones. There’s some discounting going on, although not as rampant as in the U.S., and stores such as Printemps in Paris, Selfridges in London and Düsseldorf’s Eickhoff Königsallee are entertaining shoppers with impromptu pantomime performances, Russian dancers, and tempting them with cinnamon cookies and Champagne.  <>

Bernanke's Burden Of Proof

“I have found a flaw. I don’t know how significant or permanent it is. But I have been very distressed by that fact.”
-Alan Greenspan
I understand that Wall Street memories can be as short a New York crack-berry minute; particularly into year-end bonus time. After a 63.8% rally from the March 2009 lows, you have a lot of people proclaiming their mystery of faith as “long term” investors again. It’s funny to watch.
At 52.2%, this morning’s II Bullish to Bearish Survey shows the highest weekly reading of bulls for 2009 to-date. The Depressionistas (bears) have been blown out of the water. Only 16.7% of institutional investors in the survey were allowed to admit they are currently bearish.
That said, I am begging you. Yes, begging you, ahead of Ben Bernanke’s FOMC testimony today, to take 3 seconds to remember what Alan Greenspan told Henry Waxman on Capitol Hill just over a year ago about his forecasting and risk management process.
The aforementioned quote was in response to Greenspan being questioned on his free-market ideology. One “maestro.” One view. One man who became “very distressed” … for a few months, before he started giving $50,000 dinner speeches again, I guess…
Here’s the rest of that riveting revelation of our Wizard of Oz, captured by David Leonhardt at the NY Times:
Mr. Waxman pressed the former Fed chair to clarify his words. “In other words, you found that your view of the world, your ideology, was not right, it was not working”

“Absolutely, precisely,” Mr. Greenspan replied. “You know, that’s precisely the reason I was shocked, because I have been going for 40 years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well.”

Well, it’s all good and fine for Greenspan to chalk up the failure of his free money leverage Doctrine to being “shocked.” But that doesn’t do me or this country’s future any good if He Who Sees No Bubbles (Bernanke) goes right back to upholding it.

Since Bush, Greenspan, Obama, and Bernanke have embarked on this cut rates to ZERO campaign of socializing Wall Street losses and privatizing levered up gains, the percentage of participants in the USDA’s Food Stamp Program has almost doubled.

No, that’s not a typo. The percentage of people in this country needing food stamps to eat has gone from 6% during Greenspan easy money Tech bubble in 1999 to over 11% today. One in four American children now participate in some form of food assistance program. How’s that for “God’s work.”

This is plain sad. President Obama, these are your Fat Cats. Those who subscribe to starving their population’s fixed income by cutting the rate of return on their savings accounts to ZERO, and reflating the cost of everything they have to pay for in their everyday lives.

Despite yesterday’s November report showing a massive ramp in the monthly Producer Prices (+2.7% year-over-year inflation), this is what He Who Sees No Inflation (Bernanke) had to say to US Senator, Jim Bunning’s request for reconciliation of the math:

“I continue to expect slack resources, together with the stability of inflation expectations, to contribute to the maintenance of low inflation in the period ahead.”
Are you kidding me Ben? First of all, what does that mean? Second of all, what in God’s good name does that do for the 99% of people on Main Street who are paying 2 times what they did last Christmas at the pump? Thirdly, are you kidding me?
The sad reality is that the Fed Chairman is an academic who specialized in researching the history of the Great Depression. He is not a risk manager. He is not a forecaster. He has never seen a price bubble, nor should you expect him to.
This morning you are going to get another inflating price report at 830AM via US Consumer Prices for November. Then, you are going to see Bernanke get You Tubed for the umpteenth time at 215PM when he tells the free world that he sees no price inflation. The Chinese will be watching.
The problem with Bernanke has already been established by Greenpan himself. Again, re-read the aforementioned quotes. “Again”… “Again”… “Again!”
The bankers are getting paid in size by the government. The Piggy Banker Spread (the spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields) is +272 basis points wide this morning. That’s only 4 basis points (0.04%) off of the fattest spread EVER. Yes, Mr. Bernanke, Mr. Geithner, and President Obama – you have set the table, and now the bankers are simply chowing down on what you served up. Don’t put the onus solely on them for eating.
All the while we are seeing Mr. Macro Market bake the long term effects of price inflation into the cake. Greenspan and Bernanke may have an admittedly “significant or permanent” impairment in their vision, but I can tell you this – Americans don’t get paid to wake up every morning willfully blind.
We are now seeing marked-to-market prices breakout to the upside in classic Federal Reserve rate hike leading indicators. Both the US Dollar and long term US Treasury yields have broken out above my intermediate term TREND lines to the upside (those breakout lines are $76.30 USD and 3.41%, respectively).
Greenspan and Bernanke can run from Mr. Macro Market, but they can’t hide. Prices don’t lie. The outputs of their Perceived Wisdoms do. History has a funny way of writing herself that way. While it may be hard for Washington to see this in their crack-berry caves of Groupthink Inc., with time it becomes crystal clear.
My immediate term support and resistance levels for the SP500 are now 1100 and 1115, respectively. I am sure we will test the top end of that range if Bernanke ignores this morning’s inflation data and panders to the most politicized monetary policy wind in US economic history this afternoon.

That’s why I invested 7% of the cash in my Asset Allocation on yesterday’s market down move. I moved longs versus shorts in the Virtual Portfolio to 21-11. Bernanke’s burden of proof remains something the risk manager in me cannot ignore.
Best of luck out there today,



VXX – iPath S&P500 Volatility For a TRADE we bought some protection at the market's YTD highs by buying volatility on 12/14.


EWZ – iShares Brazil As Greece and Dubai were blowing up, we took our Asset Allocation on International Equities to zero.  On 12/8 we started buying back exposure via our favorite country, Brazil, with the etf trading down on the day. We remain bullish on Brazil’s commodity complex and believe the country’s management of its interest rate policy has promoted stimulus.

XLK – SPDR Technology We bought back our position in Tech on 11/20. Rebecca Runkle has an innovation story in Mobility and Team Macro has an M&A story in our Q4 Theme, the “Banker Bonanza”. We’re bullish on XLK on TREND (3 Months or more).

GLD – SPDR Gold We bought back our long standing bullish position on gold on a down day on 9/14 with the threat of US centric stagflation heightening.   

CYB – WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan The Yuan is a managed floating currency that trades inside a 0.5% band around the official PBOC mark versus a FX basket. Not quite pegged, not truly floating; the speculative interest in the Yuan/USD forward market has increased dramatically in recent years. We trade the ETN CYB to take exposure to this managed currency in a managed economy hoping to manage our risk as the stimulus led recovery in China dominates global trade.

TIP – iShares TIPS The iShares etf, TIP, which is 90% invested in the inflation protected sector of the US Treasury Market currently offers a compelling yield. We believe that future inflation expectations are currently mispriced and that TIPS are a efficient way to own yield on an inflation protected basis, especially in the context of our re-flation thesis.

EWJ – iShares Japan
While a sweeping victory for the Democratic Party of Japan has ended over 50 years of rule by the LDP bringing some hope to voters; the new leadership  appears, if anything, to have a less developed recovery plan than their predecessors. We view Japan as something of a Ponzi Economy -with a population maintaining very high savings rate whose nest eggs allow the government to borrow at ultra low interest levels in order to execute stimulus programs designed to encourage people to save less. This cycle of internal public debt accumulation (now hovering at close to 200% of GDP) is anchored to a vicious demographic curve that leaves the Japanese economy in the long-term position of a man treading water with a bowling ball in his hands.

XLI – SPDR Industrials We shorted Industrials again on 11/9 on the up move as the US market made a lower-high.  This is the best way for us to be short the hope of a V-shaped recovery.   

XLY – SPDR Consumer Discretionary We shorted Howard Penney’s view on Consumer Discretionary stocks on 10/30 and 12/2.

SHY – iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bonds  If you pull up a three year chart of 2-Year Treasuries you'll see the massive macro Trend of interest rates starting to move in the opposite direction. We call this chart the "Queen Mary" and its new-found positive slope means that America's cost of capital will start to go up, implying that access to capital will tighten. Yields are going to continue to make higher-highs and higher lows until consensus gets realistic.


Yesterday, the markets avoided what could have been a disastrous day given the data flow from the MACRO calendar.   In early trading today, U.S. Futures and commodities are all higher on speculation that Ben will be good on his word. 


Also after the close, the ABC consumer confidence index rose to -45 in the week ending December 13 -up 2 points from a week earlier.


The S&P 500 was lower on Tuesday, declining by 0.6%.  From where I sit the MACRO calendar was unfavorable and the PPI data was troublesome.  The Financial (XLF) continues to struggle as the banking group is drowning in a sea of dilutive capital raises.  Not to mention the reality that the FED needs to raise interest rates. 


On the MACRO calendar inflation is rearing its ugly head with a 1.8% month-to-month gain in November PPI – 1% above expectations.  In addition, the regional manufacturing recovery lost some momentum as the Empire index fell to 2.6 in December from 23.5 in November; the lowest level in five months.  The one bright spot was industrial production, which rose 0.8% last month vs. consensus expectations for a 0.5% increase.


The dollar index rose 0.8% yesterday to close at 76.96. Despite all the bad news and the strength in the Dollar the market managed to avoid a major breakdown. 


Yesterday, every sector declined except Energy (XLE) and Healthcare (XLV).  Several sectors that benefit from the RECOVERY theme outperformed – Energy (XLE), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Industrials (XLI). 


The Energy (XLE) was the best performing sector yesterday, benefiting from the potential for more M&A activity and a stronger commodity.  January crude improved $1.18 at $70.69 a barrel, its first increase in ten days.  Crude benefited from the potential for increased demand coming from the better-than-expected increase in November industrial production; an upwardly revised 2010 economic outlook from Germany and OPEC boosted its 2010 demand forecast. 


The Healthcare (XLV), especially managed care stocks (HMO +0.8%) continued to benefit from expectations for a more watered down reform bill out of the Senate. 


The Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was the third best performing sector yesterday.  The XLY outperformed although the retail group was one of the worst performers yesterday with the S&P Retail Index down 1.2%.  The retail sector was dragged down by Best Buy.  While BBY reported better-than-expected fiscal Q3 EPS, the quality was low.  In addition, the top line was disappointing and it now expects a lower fiscal Q4 gross profit margin due to a continued negative mix shift.


From a risk management standpoint, the ranges for the S&P 500, the Dollar Index and the VIX are seen in the charts below.  The range for the S&P 500 is 15 points or 1.0% upside and 1.0% downside.  At the time of writing the major market futures are trading higher.


In early trading today, crude oil rose for a second day before a report forecast to show that U.S. crude inventories declined last week. The consensus believes that the Energy Department will likely report that stockpiles dropped 2 million barrels for the week ended December 11.  The Research Edge Quant models have the following levels for OIL – buy Trade (68.91) and Sell Trade (74.30).


In London Gold is trading higher by 1.0% to $1,134.  The Research Edge Quant models have the following levels for GOLD – buy Trade ($1,090) and Sell Trade ($1,149). 


According to Bloomberg copper rose in London on the speculation of interest rates will remain low in the US.  The Research Edge Quant models have the following levels for COPPER – buy Trade (3.12) and Sell Trade (3.26).


Howard Penney

Managing Director














Jordan Doubts CityCenter Will Boost Demand...

ROST: Can it Get Any Better?

With Keith managing risk around our cautious view on ROST (shorted again today), we remain convinced that the opportunities to meaningfully exceed both guidance and elevated Street expectations are gradually becoming harder and harder to achieve.  Recall that on November 19th we posted a note suggesting that the anniversary of the best time in recent history for off-pricers is now upon us.  When you add in eight quarters in a row of inventory declines (while sales have accelerated) it remains hard to envision anything but a deceleration in momentum is on the horizon.  There is no question that this has been a great run, as it has been for other retailers benefitting from value pricing and the consumer trade-down effect.  But, if you’re curious what could happen while results remain robust on an absolute basis, with growth continuing at a decreasing rate, take a look at Aeropostale’s recent performance. 


Check out this historical perspective below, which takes a detailed but long look at the relationship between the industry’s inventory management (represented by the Sales/Inventory spread) vs. ROST historical same-store sales.  The Sales/Inventory spread for clothing and accessories retailers is currently at its widest margin since before 1996.  Truly amazing!  We then line this up against Ross’ topline results and you will see that ROST’s same-store sales exceed the Sales/Inventory spread far more frequently than not, 138 months out of 166 or 83% of the time.  In fact, of the 28 times the sales/inventory spread outpaced comps over 13 years, 3 have been since September of this year alone.


The cleanliness of the inventory pipeline for retailers and manufacturers alike is about as good as we’ve ever seen and as a result, there are simply less “quality”  goods for ROST to procure.  Additionally, with fewer units floating around in the pipeline, we should begin to see ROST (and others) no longer being able to buy as close to need as we have seen over the past year.  This should have an adverse impact on inventory turns as well as the industry’s ability to flow fresh, unique good as frequently.  All this points to diminishing upside on margins and earnings…



ROST: Can it Get Any Better? - ROST SInv vs Comps 12 09



ROST: Can it Get Any Better? - ROST SInv Spread vs EBIT 12 09



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