EMPLOYMENT – PUTTING EVERYTHING “NASTY” IN PLAY

For the week ending December 5th, Initial jobless claims rose to 474,000, an increase of 17,000 from last week figure of 457,000.  The 4-week moving average was 473,750, a decrease of 7,750 from the previous week's revised average of 481,250. This is the lowest level since October 2008.

The good news is that the number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov. 28 was 5,157,000, a decrease of 303,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,460,000.  While the trend may be friendly, the level of the 4-week average is suggesting continued job losses.

This is consistent with the EMPLOYMENT post of 12/08/09 - the numbers reported by the labor department just don’t add up. 

For the USA to see a sustainable drop in the unemployment rate, we need Initial jobless claims to drop below 390,000.  This week’s Initial claims number shoots back above the 4-wk moving average, and puts everything NASTY (to be confirmed by a NASTY confidence reading on Friday and declining presidential ratings) in play. 

Including US Dollar down!

Howard Penney

Managing Director

EMPLOYMENT – PUTTING EVERYTHING “NASTY” IN PLAY - claims