Long of Brazil

Position: Long Brazil via the etf EWZ


Q. What is the native language of Brazil?

A. Brazilian? Spanish?


Or so goes the popular grade school brain teaser.  In fact, the native language of Brazil is Portugese, as Brazil is a former colony of Portugal.  There is a lot that is misunderstood about this South American powerhouse, including her growing economic power base.


Brazil’s Finance Minister announced today that the government will extend tax cuts on computer sales and purchases of capital goods, inject $45.4 billion into the state development bank, and cut taxes on the petrochemical industry.  The nature of these stimulus measures is in interesting contrast to some of its global counterparts, like the U.S., as these measures involve tax cuts and direct investment into development.  Interestingly, Brazil has also avoided cutting interest rates to an emergency level with the Selic base interest rate currently at 8.75%.


One concern is that inflationary pressures are slightly higher in Brazil versus some of its global peers with the 12-month rolling rate coming in at 4.22% in November versus 4.17% in September, but this is still below the government’s target rate of 4.50% and at a reasonable level given the high expected future GDP growth rates.


Brazil has also continued to grow its way up the GDP food chain as it gains competitiveness globally. According to the World Economic Forum:


“Brazil was the top country in upward evolution of competitiveness in 2009, gaining eight positions among other countries, overcoming Russia for the first time, and partially closing the competitiveness gap with India and China among the BRIC economies. Important steps taken since the 1990s toward fiscal sustainability, as well as measures taken to liberalize and open the economy, have significantly boosted the country’s competitiveness fundamentals, providing a better environment for private-sector development.”


We like Brazil for her growth trajectory, relatively managed inflation, and capitalist stimulus.  She also has some positive attributes versus our other emerging market favorite, China. Specifically:

  • Brazil is a Democratic nation and in fact voting for those between the ages of 18 and 65 is compulsory;
  • As is widely documented, China has an old population base that is only accelerating in terms of age due to the One Child Policy;
  • China is much more dependent on exports at ~35% of GDP versus Brazil at ~14% of GDP; and
  • Brazil is long natural resources, while China is short of them. In this instance, China is the client for Brazil’s resources.

As we look into Q4 2009 and 2010, GDP comparisons look favorable, as both Q1 2009 and Q2 2009 were negative growth quarters in Brazil, which should lead for strong reported growth out of the South American powerhouse.  Being long of the fastest growing and most competitive democracy globally is a position we like.


Daryl G. Jones
Managing Director

Long of Brazil - brazil


Sports Apparel/Footwear: Rebounding from (not so) Hot November

After an unseasonably warm November, the most notable change this week is the return of positive growth in apparel. As a result, apparel and footwear sales improved in unison on a trailing 3-week basis for the first time since the end of Q3. The chart below comparing November to historical norms is a compelling illustration of just how significant a factor temperature was last month. Meanwhile, athletic footwear is continuing to trend up and has had positive growth each of the last two weeks giving us further confidence that 2010 will mark the year that athletic footwear outperforms. Good for FL, FINL, NKE, KSWS and UA. With demand returning and temps beginning to normalize, the weak comp guidance thrown out there by some of the sporting good retailers (e.g. DKS) appears to be less likely than trends suggested just a few weeks ago – better on the margin for DKS, COLM and VFC.



Sports Apparel/Footwear: Rebounding from (not so) Hot November - FW App Industry Data 12 9 09



Sports Apparel/Footwear: Rebounding from (not so) Hot November - Sporting Goods Channel 12 9 09



Sports Apparel/Footwear: Rebounding from (not so) Hot November - Nov Temp 12 09



Sports Apparel/Footwear: Rebounding from (not so) Hot November - Dec Temp 12 09


The risk associated with governments piling on debt is not a new theme for us, however yesterday’s move by Fitch to reduce the Greek sovereign rate from A- to BBB+ was front page news. The chart below shows the yield on the 10-Y Greek Bond versus the perceived credit worthiness of the 10-Y German Bund. Clearly investors will expect a significant risk premium to own Greek debt on the longer end of the curve, which should continue to push up yields even if the Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said that there is “absolutely” no risk the country will default on its debt or seek an EU bailout.


With Greece pushing a government deficit of 12.7% of GDP this year (the EU mandates under 3%) and Greek banks facing more difficulty raising funds with a deteriorated credit rating, the government must bite the bullet and administer aggressive spending cuts. 


We’ll have our eye on potential ripple effects throughout the region. Just over the last 4 weeks we’ve seen yields on 10-year bonds from such countries as Ireland, Hungary, and Portugal blow out, while Germany and France have held steady and even come in. 


The Greek god responsible for earthquakes, Poseidon, is making financial tremors that are being felt in sovereign markets around the global.


Matthew Hedrick



Poseidon - GK vs DE

Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.46%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.35%


Being that CKR had already preannounced its fiscal 3Q10 sales and restaurant level margins last month, the most important news that came of the company’s earnings call was its full-year sales and restaurant level margin guidance.  Management guided to -3.5% to -4% blended same-store sales and a 20-40 bp decline in full-year margins.  Based on the sequentially decelerating top-line trends year-to-date, this sales guidance is not surprising.  The full-year margin guidance, however, implies about a 110-200 bp decline in the fourth quarter and breaks the company’s year-to-date trend of maintaining YOY margins despite top-line weakness.  We knew it was only a matter of time!


As I have said before, margins could not continue to move higher with comparable sales trends getting increasingly worse.  And, period 11 comparable sales (also reported yesterday) did just that.  Carl’s Jr. same-store sales decreased 8.1%, implying a 50 bp sequential decline in 2-year average trends from period 10.  Although Hardee’s same-store sales improved slightly on a 2-year average basis, it was not enough to offset the free fall at Carl’s Jr. and blended 2-year average trends declined 30 bps on a sequential basis.  The low end of the company’s full-year blended same-store sales guidance assumes that 2-year average trends deteriorate more than 50 bps in the balance of the quarter from period 11 levels.


Favorable commodity costs have helped to support restaurant level margins despite the significant demand headwinds with food and packaging costs as a percentage of sales declining 60 bps YOY in Q1, 140 bps in Q2 and 180 bps in Q3.  The company is still expecting some commodity favorability in Q4, though to lesser magnitude than in Q3, as CKR management pointed out (as did I last month) that food prices have bottomed and are moving higher.  Even with this continued favorability, margins should decline 110-200 bps YOY in the fourth quarter.  What is going to happen to CKR’s “industry leading” margins once food inflation returns?




CKR outlined some of its new sales building initiatives on its earnings call, which are included in the slide below, and I am not convinced that any of them will be the game changer the company needs to stem the declines at Carl’s Jr.  As far as I can tell, the only new idea on the list is the company’s strategic decision to focus more attention and advertising on its healthier options, including salads at Carl’s Jr.  Although salads are not new to the concept, the company has not advertised or upgraded them in the recent past because they did not appeal to its targeted “young, hungry guys.”  Management believes that this demographic is more health conscious now and that with digital media that it can more effectively market its newly upgraded salads to women without alienating its primary audience. 


First, I don’t think salads will prove to be a real traffic driver for Carl’s Jr’s “young, hungry guys”.  Second, and more importantly, salads typically carry lower margins and decrease add-on sales such as French fries.  Management stated that the lower incidence of sales of side items and combos meals is already largely to blame for the current comparable sales trends and though this problem is not unique to Carl’s Jr., salads will not help on this front.





Big Finger Point

The Walking Co filed Chapter 11, with the primary reason given being ‘uncooperative landlords’ in its effort to renegotiate rents and shed unprofitable stores.  C’mon guys… give me a break. Where’s your accountability? Do you think that just maybe the REAL reason is that your concept doesn’t really deserve the right to exist in the first place? We’ll see more of these n 2010.

Retail First Look: China Sends A Scout to US Shores


December 9, 2009





I’ve been increasingly concerned that China flexes its muscle to become a bigger force in the US footwear supply chain as it increasingly exports content instead of only its cost of manufacturing. Li Ning is firing the first shot. Watch this everyone. It matters.



Did anyone notice that Li Ning (top local brand in China) will be testing the US market in January with its first retail outlet and R&D center outside Asia in Portland (yes, Nike’s stomping ground)?  On one hand, I took a look at the choice of location and my initial gut baffled me. But the we probably have to think a bit more strategic about this… Yes, Li Ning wants to test the US market, but they’re doing this with the intent of the US being a much more meaningful part of its business 2-3 years from now.  Can someone give me a good reason why Li Ning could not get to 3-4% share of the $18bn US athletic footwear market? The only way to do that is to beef up talent. What better place to be than in the collective backyard of Nike, Adidas USA, Columbia, and a host of smaller brands that will all serve as a source of both market intel and talent as the years progress.


This is just the beginning, folks. People are so hyperfocused on US companies finding nickels and dimes by manufacturing their wares in China and then importing finished goods back the states. In fact, we’ve been all over those nickels and dimes. But let’s not lose sight of the fatter-tailed call here, which is a secularly-stronger Chinese currency giving Chinese content owners the opportunity to compete with US incumbents on their own soil at lower prices.


So let me get this straight…We’ve got an Asian company with a structural low-cost advantage, better access to capital and better cost of capital, that is making a shift towards exporting its content, instead of China simply allowing foreign brands to use its manufacturing assets. This product is competing against many over-levered marginal brands and retailers, and are being sold to US consumers who are collecting ZERO percent on their savings accounts and are likely devoid of any form of stimulus whatsoever.


This is not good. Not good at all…




  • Kroger suggested that in the last two months, both the deflationary environment for fresh food and grocery items and the competitive promotional environment intensified. Specifically in core grocery items, the category went from being slightly inflationary in Q2 to being deflationary by 1% in Q3. Management also noted that sales for November, including Thanksgiving, were below expectations. Until the economy improves, it appears that the competitive environment will remain intensified as all consumables retailers are fighting for market share in what is a low margin business to begin with.
  • In an effort to simplify its merchandising strategy and drive full priced sales Talbot’s management has been increasing the focus on key items. The result of these efforts has been a substantial reduction in clearance, substantial inventory reduction (down 40% over 2 years) and an increase in the penetration rate of key item sales to over 50% in 3Q. As a result, EBIT margins rose to 9%, even with same store sales down 16%.
  • At a conference, PVH management indicated that same store sales momentum in its retail business remains robust through the first week of December. Same store sales are trending up 6%, consistent with November. Black Friday weekend results were actually above the current run rate.
  • Autozone management noted that discretionary product sales were at the lowest percentage of the sales mix in the current quarter than they have been in the past three. Maintenance and failure products continue to grow at a faster rate as customers remain cautious with their purchasing patterns.




Iconix Renews Three Direct-to-Retail Deals - Direct-to-retail renewals have been signed by Iconix Brand Group for its brands, Candie's, Fieldcrest and Waverly. Candie's has renewed its exclusive multi-year license agreement with Kohl's. The retailer will continue to distribute Candie's-branded apparel, accessories and lifestyle products in U.S. stores and at through 2016. Candie's has been at Kohl's since 2005. Fieldcrest will continue to be sold exclusively at Target through 2015. The home brand touts bed and bath products. The brand has been with the retailer since 2005. Lowe's has also renewed its agreement with Waverly Home Classics paint, in which it will continue to hold the exclusive license. The home improvement retailer has carried the range since 2003. "These renewals demonstrate the strength of the Iconix brands and their continued importance to our retail partners," says Neil Cole, chairman and chief executive officer of Iconix. <>


Talbots Gets New Owner, Slashes Debt - One leader of the misses’ retail market has a new majority owner and a lot less debt. Shares of The Talbots Inc. rose more than 14 percent Tuesday after the specialty retailer reached a deal to end its 21-year relationship with its majority owner, the U.S. subsidiary of Japanese retail giant Aeon, retiring the $491 million debt it owes Aeon through a merger with special purpose acquisition company BPW Acquisition Corp., and agreeing to a new $200 million credit facility from GE Capital. Upon completion of the multifaceted transaction, BPW is expected to own 60 to 69 percent of Talbots’ outstanding shares. While analysts weren’t surprised Talbots would make a dramatic move to extract itself from its onerous liquidity problems, many were surprised the retailer managed a third-quarter profit, also announced Tuesday. <>


Men's Wearhouse to Continue Promotional Posture - The Men’s Wearhouse Inc. is keeping the promotional pedal to the metal for holiday, putting the bottom line at risk. In posting a 35 percent increase in third-quarter earnings, the 1,274-unit, Houston-based retailer said it expects business to remain challenging in the fourth quarter and will answer that with continued aggressive promotions. It also said Tuesday it anticipates a fourth-quarter loss of 15 to 19 cents, versus analysts’ earlier expectations of a 1-cent profit, leading shares down sharply in after-hours trading. On its analyst conference call after the market closed on Tuesday, chief executive officer George Zimmer said: “Until we have clear signs that the consumer is spending freely without promotion, we are guaranteeing that we’ll get our business by marketing heavily and promoting heavily.”  <>


Walking Company Files Ch. 11 - The Walking Company Holdings Inc. has filed for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, citing, in part, the lagging economy, as well as its recent rapid store expansion. The firm, which filed in Santa Barbara, Calif., on Monday, said it hopes to emerge from Chapter 11 in early 2010 and that it seeks to shed its unprofitable stores.“This action is an unfortunate but necessary and responsible step to preserve The Walking Co.’s value for its secured creditors, vendors, landlords, additional creditors and employees in light of the ongoing challenging retail environment,” Andrew Feshbach, CEO of The Walking Co., said in a statement released Monday evening. “We believe our business model is sustainable in today’s world, despite declining consumer spending and mall traffic at present. However, the unfortunate timing of our rapid expansion caused us to enter into lease commitments at what now appears to be the high water mark for retail space. The chapter process will allow us to shed our unprofitable stores and go forward as a financially viable retailer.” <>


Walmart Mexico Acquires 519-Store Affiliate - Latin America's largest retailer Walmart Mexico plans to acquire the operations of Walmart Central America from its parent company Walmart Stores, Inc. The not-yet-approved acquisition will see Walmart Mexico gaining an additional 519 stores and expanding its territorial reach into Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. In the 12 months through September 2009, Walmart Central America had sales of $3.3 billion.

The expected $2.7 million deal will be submitted to a shareholder vote on Dec. 22. <>


Hudson's Bay in Li & Fung Deal - The Hudson’s Bay Trading Co. beginning next year will utilize Hong Kong-based global consumer goods exporter Li & Fung Ltd. as its sole sourcing agent for the Zellers, The Bay, Home Outfitters and Lord & Taylor divisions.  “Li & Fung will bring design, technology and market expertise and expedited shipping to the Hudson’s Bay Trading Company,” said Jeff Sherman, chief executive officer of HBTC. The move is expected to save HBTC costs via a partnership with one sourcing company instead of several around the world. HBTC has been doing much direct-to-factory sourcing on its own while also working with sourcing agents around the world.  <> finds a taker for its home and children’s gifts business - After discontinuing its operation last summer, Inc. has a buyer for its home and children’s gifts business. 1-800-Flowers has agreed to sell the business, which includes,, and, to PH International LLC for $17 million. PH International is a manufacturer and wholesaler of home décor and garden products headquartered in Richmond, VA. Under the agreement, which is expected to close by the end of January, PH International will acquire the Plow and Hearth, Problem Solvers, Wind and Weather, HearthSong and Magic Cabin brands, as well as the division's offices and warehouse facility in Madison, VA. The deal includes another distribution center in Vandalia, OH.  <>


Supply chain specialists GXS and Inovis announce a merger - Each with a large presence among retailers and consumer products manufacturers, GXS Inc. and Inovis Inc. plan to combine their complementary offerings designed to help retailers and their trading partners share information and conduct online commerce. Terms were not disclosed. The merger, which is subject to regulatory review and expected to close early next year, would bring together two companies with long histories in serving business-to-business operations, including synchronizing product data, transmitting electronic purchase orders and invoices, and providing supply chain visibility. Among GXS’ offerings is its Internet-based GXS Trading Grid, a B2B e-commerce platform or portal through which retailers and their suppliers can conduct business using GXS’ hosted software applications.  <>


Global Brands Liquidates - After mulling more than 150 potential deals over its two-and-a-half years, Global Brands Acquisition Corp., the investment firm founded by Joel Horowitz, Lawrence Stroll and John Idol, is liquidating and returning its funds to shareholders, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The New York-based venture, a special purpose acquisition company, raised $287.5 million in a public stock sale in December 2007 and used interest from a trust holding that capital to evaluate potential targets. Under Global Brands’ charter, the company had to close its doors and return remaining funds to shareholders if a deal wasn’t consummated by Sunday. Last month, the firm laid out plans to transform into a real estate investment trust under an agreement with Gerrity International. Shareholders were set to vote on that arrangement at a special meeting Friday, but the parties terminated the deal and the meeting was canceled.  <>


NYC Counterfeit Raid Yields Big Haul - A monthlong investigation yielded a trailer’s worth of seized counterfeit goods in Manhattan’s Chinatown neighborhood Tuesday. Investigators covered 30 stalls in 10 buildings on the four-block stretch of Canal Street between Broadway and West Broadway, said Jason Post, a spokesman for the Mayor’s Office of Special Enforcement, which conducted the operation. The raids started late Monday night and lasted into Tuesday morning, as investigators seized knockoff perfumes, handbags and other accessories, Post said. The confiscated goods bore the marks of Gucci, Tiffany, Chanel, Coach, Juicy Couture and Cartier, those with knowledge of the operation said. No arrests were made during the sweeps and the counterfeit items were turned over to the New York Police Department, according to the mayor’s office. Authorities had not placed a value on the seized merchandise as of press time. <>


Visuality E-Mail Program Boosts Fashion Orders - Visuality, a simple Web-based e-mail program with pictures, is increasing sales for fashion brands and changing how they sell. An e-mail with a photo of every item a retailer has purchased and pictures of suggested updates and new items can easily replace more cumbersome spreadsheets, reports and attachments. “Someone who is absolutely at the kindergarten level of Internet use just opens it up,” said Bud Konheim, chief executive officer of Nicole Miller. “You send them an e-mail, and there’s a message with the pictures. One phone call and you’re doing business.” “It definitely has affected our bottom line with incremental sales,” said Annette Mathieu, president of sales and marketing for Cynthia Steffe. <>


CIT Expected to Exit Ch. 11 Thursday - CIT Group Inc. said Tuesday that it expects to emerge from bankruptcy proceedings on Thursday following a Manhattan bankruptcy court’s confirmation of its prepackaged plan of reorganization.  “CIT’s successful emergence establishes a strong foundation for the future of the company,” said ç, chairman and chief executive officer, who noted the company now has a stronger capital structure and an improved liquidity profile. Last month, CIT posted a $1.07 billion third-quarter loss, due mostly to higher reserves set aside for credit losses from a year ago. CIT became the fifth-largest bankruptcy in U.S. history — after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Washington Mutual Inc., WorldCom Inc. and General Motors Corp. — when it filed its Chapter 11 petition on Nov. 1. As expected, the filing was just by the holding company, leaving operations such as its factoring group to proceed without interruption.  <>


Retailers Get $1.1B Payment in Antitrust Case - An estimated 634,000 retailers will share a holiday windfall of $1.1 billion, the final payment in a landmark antitrust case against Visa and MasterCard over debit and credit card practices. The merchants will start receiving checks this week as part of the 2003 settlement of their $3.4 billion class action lawsuit. The National Retail Federation, International Mass Retail Association (now the Retail Industry Leaders Association) and 20 chains, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Sears and The Limited Inc., filed a lawsuit against Visa and MasterCard in federal court in New York’s Eastern District in 1996, alleging the companies violated federal antitrust laws. The lawsuit specifically cited the “honor all cards” rule, which required merchants that signed contracts for the use of Visa and MasterCard credit cards to also accept their debit cards. For every transaction on a credit or debit card, retailers pay a fee to the card companies. <>


Simon Property Buys Prime Outlets - With outlets tracking better than other store sectors, Simon Property Group Inc. has seized the moment. The nation’s largest developer on Tuesday revealed a definitive agreement to buy Prime Outlets in a deal valued at about $2.33 billion, including the assumption of Prime’s debt and preferred stock. Under the agreement, Simon will pay $700 million for the owners’ interests in Prime Outlets, comprised of 80 percent cash and 20 percent in SPG common operating partnership units. The acquisitive Simon Properties has also been said to be considering a bid for some assets of General Growth Properties Inc. For major developers, growth through acquisitions is increasingly important considering the country’s already filled with too many shopping centers leaving little opportunity or reason to build new ones and funding new projects in the tough economy is also challenging.  <>


Facebook, Twitter Influence Holiday Gift Buying, Survey Shows - Social media has influenced 28 percent of U.S. holiday shoppers in gift-buying decisions this year, according to a survey by ComScore Inc. Shoppers were most swayed by product reviews written by other consumers, the Reston, Virginia-based research firm said yesterday in a statement. “We are getting our first real glimpse at the impact social media will play on commerce as we enter the next decade,” ComScore Chairman Gian Fulgoni said in the statement. J.C. Penney Co. and Eastman Kodak Co. are using Facebook Inc., the world’s largest social-networking site with more than 350 million users, and Twitter Inc., a site that lets its more than 58 million users send 140-character messages, to lure shoppers searching for bargains online.>


Industry Gives Obama Thumbs-Up For Job Proposals - Business groups reacted favorably to several tax break proposals President Obama outlined Tuesday to help jump-start small business investment and job creation as part of a broader strategy to stimulate the private sector and staunch massive job losses that have driven the unemployment rate to decades-high levels. Obama proposed a broad package of stimulus and job measures that focused on deeper tax breaks for small businesses, new spending for infrastructure projects and tax breaks for people who make their homes more energy efficient. The pace of job losses slowed slightly in November and the unemployment rate dipped to 10 percent, but millions of people remain out of work, which continues to depress economic activity. Kevin Burke, president and chief executive officer of the American Apparel & Footwear Association, called Obama’s proposals a “step in the right direction,” but warned the administration and economy “still have a long way to go.”  <>


U.K. Consumer Confidence Stays Unchanged in November - U.K. consumer confidence stayed close to the highest level in 1 1/2 years in November as shoppers became more hopeful for the economy’s prospects in 2010, Nationwide Building Society said. The index of consumer sentiment was at 73, the same as in October and one point lower than September’s reading, the customer-owned lender said in an e-mailed statement today. The proportion of shoppers expecting the economy to worsen in six months fell to the lowest since the survey began in 2004.Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling, who will present his pre-budget report today, said this week he would rather suffer criticism for removing economic support too late than too early. Bank of England policy makers are judging if Britain has escaped the recession as they spend 200 billion pounds ($326 billion) on bonds to aid growth.  <>


OECD: International investment activity collapses - International investment activity has been more than halved by the global financial and economic crisis, with both developed and emerging economies suffering sharp declines, the OECD said on Tuesday. It said overall international mergers and acquisitions were expected to tumble 56 percent this year -- the biggest annual slide since 1995. In a statement released in the sidelines of an international investment conference, the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said the slump largely involved its 30 mostly developed economies but was also evident in racier economies such as China and Brazil. The conference emphasised the big role emerging economies have been taken in the realm of international investment. "This (overall) fall is largely due to the 60 percent decline in value of cross-border merger and acquisitions (M&A) by firms based in the OECD area, from over USD1 trillion in 2008 to USD454 billion in 2009," the OECD said in a statement, adding that the forecasts were based on analysis of data up to Nov. 26. <>


Tiger Woods' Image Problem -Tiger Woods may be reaching a tipping point as a multimillion-dollar marketing juggernaut. The golfing great’s negative buzz is soaring and his likability rating is ebbing. Marketers have not televised any Woods commercials in prime time on the five major TV networks or on 19 cable channels (excluding the Golf Channel) since Nov. 29 amid a drumbeat of allegations about extramarital affairs since he crashed his Cadillac Escalade near his Florida home, according to The Nielsen Co. Woods was also absent from commercials on sports programs last weekend, including NFL games, said Aaron Lewis, communications director at Nielsen. A 30-second spot for Gillette Co., on the Nov. 29 telecast of NBC’s “Football Night in America,” was the last to appear in prime time featuring Woods. PepsiCo Inc.’s Gatorade is the first brand aligned with Woods to blink. Even as it continued to show full-motion images of the 33-year-old athlete at Tuesday night, the sports nutrition drink company said it was dropping its Gatorade Tiger beverage. It said the decision was made before Woods’ SUV crash.  <>

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