The less government interferes with private pursuits, the better for general prosperity.
-Martin van Buren
PENNSYLVANIA AVE STAREDOWN: Leadership's idea of a repeal and replace bill on the 7th anniversary of Obamacare wasn’t the best hatched plan as it boxed them into a timeline that wasn’t doable given the amount of work that needed to be done to the bill. A vote on the AHCA was originally scheduled for 7 PM last night and our latest information pegs the vote sometime between 2-4:00 pm today. The House approved a procedural maneuver last night known as “Martial Law” that grants them same day voting authority to repeal the ACA.
Notwithstanding the delay, Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows and his colleagues appear to be holding all the cards (and the Republican party hostage) as 30 members are still undecided - but there has been a shift from “no” to “undecided” by some members over the past 12 hours. This comes after OMB Director Mick Mulvaney (and co-founder of the Freedom Caucus) issued a threat from President Trump that they either pass the AHCA or he will leave Obamacare in place. Even the master negotiator is fed up with negotiating and has found his foil in the Freedom Caucus.
Based on Meadows’ recent statement and given the framework under which he is operating there needs to be a safety net for the vulnerable populations while lowering premiums at the same time - a significant move in the right direction and certainly the language moderate Republicans need to hear to stanch the hemorrhaging from that wing of the conference. In a last ditch effort to appeal to moderates, House leadership added a six-year delay in repealing a 0.9 percent additional Medicare tax on high-income Americans who earn above $200,000. Meadows is the man to watch over the next five or six hours. If he moves in favor of the bill, expect others to follow - if he announces his opposition, then it will be a free-for-all.
The mandatory meeting of the entire Republican conference last night served as a clarion call to all factions of the party to rally around the first major legislative jewel in the Republican crown with Mulvaney making the best case for passage and enactment of the measure as well as tax reform according to sources in the room. We underscore that the implications for Trump’s agenda, Speaker Ryan and the Republican party and the individual health market are so significant that failure isn’t an option. We think Trump, Ryan and McCarthy will find the votes to get them over the finish line - then the hard work begins in the Senate.
SORRY STATES OF AFFAIRS: Republican Governors have begun to push legislators to oppose the Trump budget - not that it’s going to be a major struggle. Governors are concerned over budget cuts to regional job training and economic stimulus programs like the Delta Regional Authority and Appalachian Regional Commision which provide tens of millions of dollars to states in Appalachia and the South. The resistance has come from Governors in key Trump stronghold states like KY, AL, AR, IN, and AK, adding to the lineup of Congressmen and Senators who have opposed the proposal.
FILING FOR A FILIBUSTER:Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer announced his opposition to SCOTUS nominee Neil Gorsuch and will filibuster his nomination - likely meaning that less than eight Democrats are prepared to cross the aisle and support Gorsuch. However there is a group of Democrats are working to extract concessions from Republicans in return for confirming the judge. The Democrats are pursuing a deal that would exchange Gorsuch’s confirmation for a commitment from Republicans not to kill the filibuster for a subsequent vacancy under President Trump.
OPENING THE TAPS:One of President Trump’s major promises from the campaign just came true. The State Department approved a permit for the Keystone Pipeline this morning. This cross-border permit will finally allow oil to carry up to 830,000 barrels per day of oil from the Alberta oil sands to pipelines throughout the country. Four days into his presidency Trump signed a memo ordering State to reconsider the permit application and now with its approval, Trump can claim an early win for improving the country’s energy infrastructure.
