Demography sector head Neil Howe will be hosting a call tomorrow, March 16th, at 1:00 PM, where he will be breaking down preliminary NVSS data showing that the U.S. general fertility rate dropped in H1 2016. Coming off of a rough 2015 for births, many demographers anticipated a rebound. Will we get one anytime soon?
HIGHLIGHTS
- Shifting age gradient: U.S. first-time mothers are getting older. Neil will explain why fertility is falling among younger age brackets and rising among the 30+ population.
- No economy-fueled baby boom: Why hasn’t rising median household income since 2015 translated into higher fertility?
- Tempo effect or something else? Optimistic forecasters believe that declining birthrates are a symptom of Millennials simply “putting off” childbirth until later in life, at which point they’ll start having babies. Is this a realistic expectation?
- Why Millennials are different: Today’s young adults exhibit many attitudes and behaviors that drag down birthrates. Will Millennials carry these characteristics into older age brackets?
- The immigration effect: Neil expects shifting immigration patterns to continue to be a long-term headwind for U.S. fertility.
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