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The 2010 Sneaker Setup Continues…

We continue to see athletic footwear trend up on the margin, reversing a 3Q trend where apparel dominated. Remember that athletic shoes has been one of the few categories that grossly underperformed in 2009. As each week passes we gain confidence in our call that 2010 will mark the year that this turns. Good for FL, FINL, NKE, KSWS and UA. On the flip side, the apparel trends – particularly as it relates to cold-weather apparel sales – are not looking good. Here’s a bit of trivia for you. How many coats are sold in the US every year? It’s about 300mm.  Get the pattern? Roughly 1 coat per person. Yeah, I know… some people buy 5 coats, while other use hand-me-downs for the better part of their lives. But overall, we’re talking a 1 to 1 relationship. This season started with penned-up demand, as well as very cold weather. Now demand is easing, and the temp has risen. I originally thought the weak comp guidance  thrown out there by guys like DKS for 4Q was simply conservative. Now it’s looking realistic (bad for DKS, COLM and VFC). Again…the play here is toward those who have more exposure to footwear.

The 2010 Sneaker Setup Continues… - Table Sporting Goods

The 2010 Sneaker Setup Continues… - Footwear and Apparel Sporting Goods Chart