The post-Election Day stock market tide has lifted all boats.

Well, almost all boats.

Over the past three months, Retail stocks (XRT) have been hammered. They’re down -9.3%, while the S&P 500 has soared 7.4%.

What’s fueling the plunge? Speculation about a border-adjustment tax (a GOP proposed which would levy a tax against all imports) has crippled the sector. Investors are betting that tariffs on formerly cheap imports of socks, shirts and pants would cost more and hurt retail margins.

This policy proposal, should it pass, would obviously be very bearish for U.S. retailers.

From 1994 to the present day, there has been a “colossal paradigm shift” in retail, says veteran Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough in The Macro Show video excerpt above.

A symbolic victory came in 2001 when China was admitted into the World Trade Organization. Trade barriers between the U.S. and China began to fall and cheap foreign goods came flooding in. This cheaply filled the shelves of marginal brands like Kohl’s and JC Penney, McGough says.

Over that period, the percentage of Chinese imports to the U.S. went from 10% of the total in 2000 to about 35% today. Before 1994, the yearly retail consumption norm in the U.S. was about 30 garments per capita. Today it’s 84 units. In other words, the average number of units purchases by US consumers on a per capita basis more than doubled. A border-adjustment tax that increased the cost of such imports would undoubtedly hurt retailers.

Looking further into the future, McGough offers up some interesting insights on how Amazon (AMZN) will reshape retail. Will there be Amazon stores throughout the U.S.? McGough weighs in on the future for the $404 billion retail behemoth.