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RETAIL FIRST LOOK: KEY SPORTING GOODS THEMES

RETAIL FIRST LOOK

 November 20, 2009

 

 

TODAY’S CALL OUT

 

When all is said and done, those with apparel exposure printed the best numbers. Consistent with our recent incremental thoughts on the space, we think that the setup for athletic footwear remains solid headed into ’10. If FL is not on your list of long candidates, it should be. NKE starting to look better too.

 

 

Thematic Callouts:

  • DKS & HIBB reported better than expected results while FL missed the quarter (it’s also the only one of the 3 that doesn’t provide guidance)
  • The SIGMA for all three reflected both an improved sales/inventory ratio and margins across the board
  • Comps improved on a 1Yr & 2Yr basis for all three
    • Both apparel and hard goods posted positive comps in Q3 (DKS & HIBB)
    • Footwear comped positively for DKS, but negative for HIBB (non-cleated business)

 

  • Outlook disparity b/w DKS and HIBB Q4 guidance and an implied trends at FL (flat on 2Yr) clearly stands out implying a 7% sequential deceleration.
    • DKS attributed the conservatism not to current deterioration of trends, but rather the shift of cold weather product demand into the 3Q, uncertainty about consumer spending in light of healthcare bill, unemployment, etc. as well as the anniversary of record guns&ammo demand.
  • Store growth: HIBB easing (expect 22 net new stores in F09 vs. 30-32 noted last qtr) while DKS is stepping on the accelerator commenting that if properties become available as was the case with Joes that fit the DKS footprint (35-55k), they will move to acquire add’l locations.

 

 

DKS:

  • Every category (including footwear) comped positively for the 3Q
  • Mgmt noted that footwear has been a good business, but that they are bit different from ‘mall-based retailers’ in that they focus on the core athlete (football, baseball player) implying that similar to HIBB it was the cleated footwear business that outperformed within footwear.
  • Noted there were no real highs or lows to note.

 

HIBB:

  • While revs were modestly better than expected, footwear was highlighted as the most challenging category in the quarter and continues to be.
  • On the other hand apparel, accessories and hard goods and cleated footwear was all positive in the 3Q – trend expected to cont. in 4Q.

 

FL:

  • Only commentary of consequence is that the Int’l business is outperforming domestic sales.

 

__________________________________________________________________________________________

FL:

MISS: Reported EPS of $0.04 (Clean $0.10 ex impairment charges) vs. $0.13E

 

Revs (-7%) up on a 1 & 2Yr basis as well as comp.

                Store consolidation continues -14 net

(-14 net store reduction on base of 3600 –declining avg. sq. ft. trend continues (-3%-4%)).

Fx (0.3%) impact

Comps -8.2% (vs. -5.8%E)

 

GM: 0bps

SG&A: +60bps

OM: -60bps

 

S: -7%

Inv: -3%

 

Int’l outperformed domestic US business with improved trends in Eur through 3Q and positive performance in APac.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

HIBB:

BEAT: Reported (clean) EPS of $0.30 vs. $0.24E

 

Revs (+4%) up on a 1 & 2Yr basis as well as comp.

                Opened 5 net new stores, but dialing back plans for net adds in FY09 to 22 from 30-32

Comps -0.2% (vs. -0.8%E)

 

GM: +70bps

SG&A: -10bps

D&A: -10bps

OM: +90bps

 

S: +4%

Inv: +5%

 

Outlook:

F10

EPS $0.95-$1.02 (vs. $0.92E) and guidance of $0.85-$0.95

 

Q4

Implied EPS $0.24-$0.31 (vs. $0.27E)

Comps -2%-2%

 

  • Authorized a new stock repurchase authorization of $250mm replacing the existing plan set to expire in Jan ’10.

 

FL call @ 9am

HIBB call @ 10am

 

RETAIL FIRST LOOK: KEY SPORTING GOODS THEMES - Footwear and Apparel in the Sports Retailer Channel

 

RETAIL FIRST LOOK: KEY SPORTING GOODS THEMES - Sporting Goods SIGMA 11 09

 

RETAIL FIRST LOOK: KEY SPORTING GOODS THEMES - Sporting Goods CompTable 11 09

 

RETAIL FIRST LOOK: KEY SPORTING GOODS THEMES - Sporting Goods CompChart 11 09

 

RETAIL FIRST LOOK: KEY SPORTING GOODS THEMES - FL S 11 09

 

RETAIL FIRST LOOK: KEY SPORTING GOODS THEMES - HIBB S 11 09

 

 

LEVINE’S LOW DOWN

 

  • William Sonoma management indicated that early sales of the holiday assortment are selling better than expected at this point in the season. There is a sense that their customers are decorating again and continue to entertain at home. As a result, there may be some inventory shortages resulting from continued demand improvement across the business. As a result, management is now expecting to pull some early spring product into late December to meet demand as well as offer newness into the assortment.
  • Despite substantial inventory management improvements over the past two years, ROST management still believes it can reduce inventories further in 2010 by mid to high single digits. Embedded in this assumption is the company’s ability to buy and process units closer to need. However, with inventory tight across the entire supply chain we wonder how much more opportunity there really is to buy closer to need.
  • As retailers continue to create a web of confusion surrounding November sales performance, add PVH to the list of those that are still seeing positive momentum. After reporting a better than expected 6% same store sales increase in the quarter, management noted that the same trend has continued through the third week of November. Sales momentum is being driven primarily by higher AUR’s and conversion, with traffic that is essentially flat.
  • In effort to support the success of its first holiday season in southern California, Dicks Sporting Goods is investing heavily in promotions and marketing in 4Q in that region. The cost of these efforts is expected to be $14 million or $0.07 per share, split 60/40 between marketing and promotions. Management was quick to point out that region has not necessarily gotten worse but that the company is taking the opportunity to invest in the region to further build its brand presence.
  • Management of GameStop attributes the company’s ability to sell 2.5 million units of Modern Warfare 2 in the first 72 hours to the company’s ability to offer trade credit through its used game program. There continues to be an increasing amount of new launch titles being purchased with credit, reflecting both the company’s market share in the used game industry as well as the consumers’ appetite for value.
  • After chasing inventory in the denim category in September and October, Gap is just now back in stock, by size, fit, and wash for the Thanksgiving weekend. This is the first time since the denim re-launch in August that inventory has been well positioned. On a go forward basis, management is focused on making more frequent month by month introductions in the category to continuously reinforce the company’s commitment to innovation in the category.
  • Given Steinmart’s demographic focus on a lower income consumer, management noted that sales conditions continue to be challenging. The company’s customers are reliant on incentives (i.e coupons) to come into the stores to shop. Additionally, the lack of clearance inventory in the mix did have a negative impact on sales, further indicating that their customer remains very focused on value and price.
  • If your already annoyed by Gap’s recent return to TV advertising (maybe a little too much cheer?), there is good news ahead. The second through the fifth weeks of the campaign will feature different twists to the initial programming we have seen over the past seven days. Along with a new campaign, the company will continue to test the balance between rebranding and the use of promotion.

 

 

MORNING NEWS 

 

Retail Groups Express Concerns Over Senate Health Care Bill - Retail groups voiced strong opposition to employer mandates in an $849 billion bill unveiled by Senate Democrats Wednesday night that would overhaul the health care system and assess fees on employers to help pay for workers eligible for government health insurance subsidies. The National Retail Federation and the Retail Industry Leader Association were critical of the bill’s employer requirements, while Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which supports a mandate for businesses to pay for employee health care, remained neutral on the Senate bill. The AFL-CIO, on the other hand, lent overall support for the bill, but expressed concern over several issues, including employer mandates that the union said fall short in providing more coverage to workers. <wwd.com>

 

GAO Report Finds Credit Card Swiping Fees on the Rise - The National Retail Federation welcomed a report issued today by the General Accountability Office on the $48 billion in “swipe” fees that credit card companies collect from merchants and their customers each year. “This report shines a spotlight on credit card fees and their cost to consumers,” NRF Senior Vice President and General Counsel Mallory Duncan said. “In the past two weeks we’ve seen the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hold a major conference on credit cards, a study from the Hispanic Institute on how card companies take from the poor and give to the rich, and now this document. Clearly, there is a growing focus on this issue and it’s time for action. With this information in hand, we hope Congress will move quickly to pass legislation to bring these fees and practices under control.” <sportsonesource.com>

 

China Will Face Its Own Bubble to Face as Consumer Demand Falters - Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said Chinese growth is likely to be hurt by an absence of consumer demand from trading partners such as the U.S. “The Chinese, I suspect, will have a bubble of their own to confront,” Gross said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday from Pimco’s headquarters in Newport Beach, California. “It’s gearing up for export that doesn’t find an end consumer, that’s the real problem in China.”  “With unemployment in the double digits and likely to stay close to that for the next six months despite job creation ahead, the Fed has nowhere to go,” Gross, co-founder and co-chief investment officer of Pimco, said on Bloomberg Television.  <bloomberg.com>

 

Bank of Japan Keeps Rate at 0.1% as Kan Urges Deflation Fight - The Bank of Japan kept interest rates near zero and raised its economic assessment even as government pressure for it to fight deflation intensified. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his colleagues held the overnight lending rate at 0.1 percent, the central bank said in a statement today in Tokyo. The release came hours after Deputy Prime Minister Naoto Kan warned about the danger that falling prices pose to Japan’s recovery from its worst postwar slump. <bloomberg.com>

 

Japan’s Department Store Sales Fall 10.5 Percent - The Japan Department Store Association said sales for the month of October dropped to 513.55 billion yen, or $5.71 billion at average exchange, a decline of 10.5 percent compared to the same month last year. This is the 20th consecutive month of decline and biggest monthly drop yet. Sales of clothing fell 13.6 percent overall, with women's apparel dropping 13.5 percent. The largest drop in a single category was 17.2 percent, in furniture. The only area that posted an increase was consumer electronics, up 11.3 percent. <wwd.com>

 

INDEX IQ introduces M&A ETF - This week has already seen a number of unique ETFs come into the market place. The IQ ARB Merger Arbitrage ETF (NYSEArca: MNA), linked to the IQ ARB Merger Arbitrage Index, is another one. MNA is the first ETF to invest (long and/or short) in global companies that are potential takeover candidates. The new ETF seeks to achieve capital appreciation by investing in global companies for which there has been a public announcement of a takeover by an acquirer. This differentiated approach is based on a passive strategy of owning certain announced takeover targets, with the goal of generating returns that are representative of global merger arbitrage activity. The index also includes short exposure to global securities as a partial equity market hedge.  <etfguide.com>

 

Adidas Targets Mountaineers as $59 Billion Outdoor Market Booms - Adidas AG, the world’s second- largest sporting-goods maker, will start selling a new range of 400-euro ($595) mountaineering jackets next year as it aims to capture a larger share of the growing outdoor-pursuits market. The Herzogenaurach, Germany-based company wants to become a leading brand for so-called performance-sports gear by 2015, Rolf Reinschmidt, head of the global outdoor division, said by phone. Adidas is “among the top 10 labels” in the market, he said, declining to be more specific or provide figures. Sales of outdoor gear will rise about 0.7 percent in Europe this year, outperforming the declining sporting-goods market, according to industry body European Outdoor Group. The fragmented nature of the market makes it attractive for Adidas. VF Corp., owner of The North Face brand, leads the $59 billion industry with outdoor-sports sales of $2.74 billion, the association says. <bloomberg.com>

 

Malaysia Economic Contraction Eases as Asia Recovers - Malaysia’s economy shrank the least in three quarters as government stimulus boosted consumption and the global recession eased, strengthening an Asian recovery. Gross domestic product contracted 1.2 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, after declining 3.9 percent in the previous three months, the central bank said in Kuala Lumpur today. That was better than the median forecast of a 2 percent drop in a Bloomberg News survey of 19 economists.  <bloomberg.com>

 

Tommy Hilfiger Set for Major Global Expansion - Tommy Hilfiger has some big expansion plans in the works — now he just has to make sure he controls the growth. Hilfiger plans to open 100 stores in the months remaining in the current fiscal year ending March 31, adding to the tally of 950 stores he currently operates worldwide. They will be split between Europe, North America and emerging markets. In an exclusive interview, Hilfiger pointed to Central and South America, where the brand has been present for the past 20 years and where it has 130 stores, as hot properties. “We see the region as a big emerging growth market,” he said. “Brazil is untapped. We’ve seeded Argentina, Peru, Colombia, Venezuela and Mexico — and now we’re poised for growth there. The brand is primed for those areas, too, with cotton and bright colors.” <wwd.com>

 

Casual Male to Open Superstores in 2010 - Casual Male Retail Group Inc. will unveil a new superstore concept in the spring. In reporting third-quarter earnings on Thursday, where the company posted a net loss of $1.4 million, or 3 cents a diluted share, the Canton, Mass.-based big and tall men’s wear retailer revealed plans to open three Destination XL stores in 2010. The concept will bring together the merchandise offered by all of the company’s existing divisions: the moderately priced Casual Male, the more-upscale Rochester Big & Tall, the B&T Factory Outlet as well as the catalogues Shoes XL and Living XL. The latter offers products in many categories that address the needs of the larger-size customer such as seat belt expanders, heavy-capacity chairs and step stools.  <wwd.com>

 

Tesco unveils broadband ambitions - Tesco is to take on broadband telecoms players such as BT, TalkTalk and Virgin media as it targets extra profits of £200m annually. The giant grocer has struck a five-year deal with Cable & Wireless to offer combined broadband and home phone packages. Tesco will also double its number of in-store phone shops to 200 by the end of next year and ultimately to have 500. Tesco is targeting eventual sales of £2bn a year and profits of £200m from broadband and landline services, which are a step on from the established Tesco mobile business. <retail-week.com>

 

Piazza Sempione Plots U.S. Expansion - The financial bubble may have burst, but for Piazza Sempione, the U.S. is still a ballooning market. The fashion firm is pushing ahead with a bullish retail program with the opening of three freestanding stores in The Shop at the Bravern mall in Bellevue, Wash.; in Chevy Chase, Md., outside Washington, and in The Plaza at King of Prussia, Pa. Between 1,200 and 2,300 square feet in size, each unit is expected to generate annual sales of $2.8 million. Earlier this year, Piazza Sempione spent $1.5 million to open a store in Chicago and is seeking the right location in New York. Piazza Sempione has 13 stand-alone stores and 600 doors worldwide.  <wwd.com>

 

Limited closing Canadian apparel chain - Limited Brands Inc. got out of the U.S. tween girl market 10 years ago and now will do the same in Canada. The Columbus-based retailer said Thursday it is closing the 42-unit La Senza Girl chain north of the border. The apparel chain aimed at 7-to-14-year-old girls, akin to the former Limited Too chain, was part of the 2007 purchase of Canada lingerie chain La Senza Corp. for $609 million. Limited bought the more than 600-unit business for its international foothold in lingerie though, not its modest girl apparel business. “Frankly, since the time of the acquisition, we had thought it probably would not be a go-forward business for us,” Martyn Redgrave, chief administrative officer, said during a call for stock analysts. <columbus.bizjournals.com

 

Reshaping manufacturing costs in a post crisis world: Asia's not so cheap any more - A decade or more ago Asia was by far the low-cost producer. Recent reports – including the analysis by Alix Partners – show that Asia’s production costs are 15% or 20% higher than they were just four years ago. A US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report from March reaches the same conclusion.  Compensation costs in East Asia – a region that includes China but excludes Japan – rose from 32% of U.S. wages in 2002 to 43% in 2007. Since wages are advancing at a rate of 8% to 9% a year, and many types of taxes are escalating, too, East Asia’s overall costs have no doubt escalated even more in the two years since the BLS figures were reported.    <fashionnetasia.com>

 

Private equity firms table first-round Matalan bids - Five private equity groups are understood to have tabled bids for value fashion group Matalan, which may be sold for as much as £1.5bn. BC Partners, Blackstone, TPG and Warburg Pincus have all tabled indicative offers, the Financial Times reported, The fifth is Advent, which already owns value variety store chain Poundland and whose bid would be led by former Boots chief executive Richard Baker. If Matalan attracts the mooted £1.5bn price tag it would be valued at more than 10 times EBITDA of £145m in the year to February 28. The hefty price being demanded is understood to have dissuaded some potential bidders from submitting offers. <retail-week.com>

 

Burkle’s Yucaipa to Buy Piece of Barneys Debt - Ron Burkle’s evolution from food to fashion may be ready to take another step. Sources said Thursday that Burkle’s Yucaipa Cos. investment vehicle, which previously has taken stakes in Sean John and Scoop, is in the final stages of purchasing some of Barneys New York’s debt from Citibank. “We know Yucaipa bought some of it,” said one financial source. “It has more to do with Citibank,” which is struggling and anxious to shore up its finances. “But it also shows a recovery in pricing of Barneys’ debt,” said another source familiar with the deal. It is believed the amount of debt Yucaipa will own will be less than that of Perry Capital. That hedge fund is headed by Richard Perry, husband of designer Lisa Perry. <wwd.com>

 

General Growth, CIT Make Progress in Ch. 11 - General Growth Properties and CIT Group hope to exit Chapter 11 proceedings next month. General Growth said on Thursday it has reached an agreement with lenders to extend the due dates on its mortgages by almost five years, with interest continuing at the “current nondefault rate.” The mall operator said the average interest rate for the 70 loans covered by the agreements is 5.35 percent. If approved by the bankruptcy court, none of the 70 loans would mature before Jan. 1, 2014.  <wwd.com>

 

Ralph Lauren's Grand Entrance in Connecticut - After an absence of more than a decade, Ralph Lauren is returning to Greenwich — and making quite an entrance. Today, Lauren is opening a nearly 19,000-square-foot store on Greenwich Avenue with all the ingredients increasingly emblematic of the designer’s retail network. The store is housed inside a newly built structure with an imposing Beaux-Arts limestone facade, large arched windows and balconies; the residential-like interior has several smaller rooms and a grand staircase, and there is a noticeable spotlight on women’s apparel and accessories.  <wwd.com>

 

VF Outdoor Launching Two New Value Backpack Brands - VF Outdoor, Inc., a subsidiary of VF Corporation is introducing the launch of two new backpack brands, Wolf Creek™ and L8R™ to service the sporting goods, mid-tier, mass and club channels in Fall 2010.  VF Outdoor says the the Wolf Creek and L8R brands were created to "offer consumer-valued feature sets at compelling prices." “Wolf Creek and L8R will enable retailers to capture healthy margins and sales volume, ensured by the power of the VF Outdoor supply chain,” said Steve Rendle, President of VF Outdoor Americas. “This meets a need for junior lifestyle and young men’s consumers in sporting goods, mid-tier, mass and club channels in a way that complements the overall VF Corporation brand portfolio.” <sportsonesource.com>

 

Timberland Names VP, North America Wholesale Sales - The Timberland Co. promoted Mike Noonan to VP of North America wholesale sales. In this role, he will lead the sales operations for Timberland's wholesale customers throughout North America. Departments reporting to Noonan will include field sales - headed by National Sales Manager Tom Lucas - sales operations and customer/consumer service.   In his new role, Noonan reports to VP and GM Mark Bryden. <sportsonesource.com>

 

Wal-Mart enters the mobile app realm with product recommendations - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. already operates a successful m-commerce site (1.58 million unique monthly visitors in August, according to The Nielsen Co.) and conducts text messaging with customers. Now it has added the third leg of the mobile commerce stool by launching a mobile app. The new app, designed for the iPhone and iPod Touch and available for free at Apple Inc.’s App Store, focuses on electronics product recommendations. It also includes a store locator and a social media tool to ask friends for help. Wal-Mart says this is only the first version of the app and that future versions will include additional functions.  <internetretailer.com>

 

 

INSIDER TRANSACTION ACTIVITY

 

TJX: Ernie Herrman, SEVP, sold 20,000 shares after exercising options to buy 20,000 shares for a net gain of $350k.

 

LOW: Michael Mabry, EVP,  sold 35,000 shares for a gain of $756k.

 

BBY: Bradbury Anderson, Vice Chairman, sold 31,000 shares after exercising options to buy 31,000 shares for a net gain of $341k.

 

BGFV: Richard Johnson, EVP, sold 15,000 shares for a gain of $255k.

 

NFLX: Reed Hastings, CEO, sold 10,000 shares after exercising options to buy 4,500 shares for a net gain of $590k.

 

CROCS:

  •  John McCarvel, EVP of Ops, sold 14,000 shares for a gain of $80k.
  • Russell Hammer, SVP/CFO, sold 7,000 shares for a gain of $40k.
  • Erick Rebich, VP of Gen. Counsel, sold 7,000 shares for a gain of $40k.

Fantasy Forecaster

“We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know – and those who don’t know what they don’t know.”
-John Kenneth Galbraith
 
I was flying back to New York from Seattle last night, and for the life of me could not shake this ‘dude’ they have on Fast Money who keeps pronouncing China, “Chi-nar-r.” We’re not asking much from these Fantasy Forecasters, but for the love of God, CNBC, get us someone who at least knows what they don’t know about basic spelling and pronunciation. The Chinese are watching.
 
Rebecca Runkle’s vision of Mobility is a wonderful thing but it can really infuse some distractions to my research while I am on the road. After getting what I needed from CNBC’s broadcast (closing prices for factors in my macro model), I promptly moved back to the country music channel.
 
Some people call me a forecaster. Some people call me names. Most people are starting to call me their Risk Manager. After spending a lot of time on the road in the last few weeks with Global Macro investors from Calgary, Alberta to Kansas City, Missouri, that’s where people say my team adds the most value.
 
Howard Marks has been adding value for Oaktree Capital Management investors for a long time. He founded the firm in 1995 and runs $60B in a way that a lot of people respect. They should. He is no Fantasy Forecaster – this man is a world class risk manager. In his recent letter to investors, Marks outlined some thoughts on risk management. Here were two that found their way into my notebook:
 
1.      “Ignoring bubbles is a special case of ignoring risk in general.”

2.      “I say we never know where we are going, but we sure as heck ought to know where we are.”

 
No matter where we go this morning, there those real-time, marked-to-market, prices are. Ultimately, this is a very simple way to start knowing what you may not know. Never forget that market prices don’t lie; people do. Price action is a leading indicator for something. Our daily task, as risk managers, is finding a way to understand what it is about those prices that we don’t know.
 
After being on the road meeting with a lot of people who are in the know, I thought I’d start to share my list of what seems to strike investors as something they didn’t know:
 
1.      Japan’s stock market is breaking down at the same time as her sovereign default swaps have doubled since August

2.      Japan’s stock market is down -5.4% for the month of November vs. China’s being up +10.5%

3.      Japan’s debt/GDP has gone from 50% in 1988 to 196% today, and government debt could top 240% within the next 3 years

 
That’s just Japan. And I have to keep this morning missive under 1000 words, so I better jump to another country. What is it about America that Washington doesn’t want anyone to know?
 
1.      Ben Bernanke’s new nickname is “He Who Sees No Bubbles” (see Daryl Jones, note titled “Geronimo” from Tuesday November 17th)

2.      America’s debt/GDP is tracking the exact same path as Japan’s, from 50%, to 80%, to … ?

3.      America’s debt, all in, per the Federal Reserve, is $53T (includes government, corporate, and consumer debt) actually close to 380% versus GDP

 
Wait. We know this – or do we? Do we know that levering ourselves up with debt is bad? Do we know what one TRILLION dollars is? How about $53 Trillion, and counting? Do we know what we don’t know?
 
Do American politicians know what off-balance sheet debt obligations are? If I throw those into the mix (Medicare, Social Security – you know… that other stuff), I can get to $56 TRILLION. That’s not a Fantasy Forecast either. That’s a number that “we sure as heck ought to know” we are running up here!
 
What does Timmy Geithner know? He claims to know that he “brought America back from the brink.” But the minute that Texas Congressman, Kevin Brady, insinuated that Timmy may not know what he doesn’t know… well… you saw that Squirrel Hunter get all fired up Rouge didn’t you. I have never seen a squirrel turn red before. Heck, I guess that’s just one more thing I didn’t know.
 
What most Americans know is that they are getting the bill. The Piggy Banker Yield Curve gets the Bankers, Debtors, and Politicians paid. Geithner’s job was to ensure the top 3 banking firms in America got their $30B in 2009 bonuses. Enough with your having brought us back from the brink already, ‘dude’.
 
Back to Bernanke. Depending on what slope you want to look at, the ‘He Who Sees No Bubbles’ yield curve is 2-4x its historical slope. If you didn’t know, that’s steep. There is a bubble forming in US Treasuries.
 
This morning you are seeing massive politicization on the short end of that yield curve. The 2-year US Treasury rate is plummeting to new lows (0.69%, levels not seen since the crash). The Yield Spread (10-year yields minus 2-year) is +265 basis points wide (11bps from its widest spread EVER), and the Term Structure (30-year yields minus 3-month) is +401 basis points wide (the historical median is 129bps!).
 
By any historical measure – government debt, yields, spreads – America has never looked more like Japan did in 1989. Rather than hiring a student of the Great Depressionista “brink” school to run this country’s debt levels up and into monstrous bubble proportions, maybe we should get someone who knows something about Japan to explain this to our President.
 
President Obama,
 
If one of your aides passed you the Early Look, I am satisfied – because now you know.
 
Ignoring America and Japan’s debt bubbles is, as Howard Marks can teach you, a special case of your in-house Fantasy Forecasters “ignoring risk in general.”
 
My immediate term TRADE support and resistance levels for the SP500 are now 1082 and 1115, respectively.
 
Enjoy the weekend with your families and best of luck out there today,
KM

 

 

LONG ETFS

EWA – iShares Australia We remain bullish of Glenn Stevens at the RBA and how Australia is issuing its citizenry a rate of return. With growing confidence in domestic demand recovery and a commodity export complex with strategic proximity to China’s reacceleration, there are a lot of ways to win being long Australia.

XLU – SPDR Utilities We bought low beta Utilities on discount on 10/20.

GLD – SPDR Gold We bought back our long standing bullish position on gold on a down day on 9/14 with the threat of US centric stagflation heightening.   
 


CYB – WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan The Yuan is a managed floating currency that trades inside a 0.5% band around the official PBOC mark versus a FX basket. Not quite pegged, not truly floating; the speculative interest in the Yuan/USD forward market has increased dramatically in recent years. We trade the ETN CYB to take exposure to this managed currency in a managed economy hoping to manage our risk as the stimulus led recovery in China dominates global trade.

TIP – iShares TIPS
The iShares etf, TIP, which is 90% invested in the inflation protected sector of the US Treasury Market currently offers a compelling yield. We believe that future inflation expectations are currently mispriced and that TIPS are a efficient way to own yield on an inflation protected basis, especially in the context of our re-flation thesis.

 
SHORT ETFS

EWY – iShares South Korea South Korea has joined Japan in the ominous position of broken TREND and TRADE. This is not China or Taiwan. This is an early cycle economy that we want to be short against China/Taiwan.

XLI – SPDR Industrials We shorted Industrials again on 11/9 on the up move as the US market made a lower-high.  This is the best way for us to be short the hope of a V-shaped recovery.   

EWU – iShares UK Despite areas of improvement, broader fundamentals remain shaky in the UK: government debt continues to expand, leadership in critical positions lacks, and the country’s leverage to the banking sector remains glaringly negative.  Q3 saw its GDP contract by -0.4%. Further bank stimulus and the BOE’s increase in its bond purchasing program suggest that this will not end well.

XLY – SPDR Consumer Discretionary We shorted Howard Penney’s view on Consumer Discretionary stocks on 10/30.

FXB – CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling The Pound is the only major currency that looks remotely as precarious as the US Dollar. We shorted the Pound into strength on 10/16 and 11/16.

SHY – iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bonds
 If you pull up a three year chart of 2-Year Treasuries you'll see the massive macro Trend of interest rates starting to move in the opposite direction. We call this chart the "Queen Mary" and its new-found positive slope means that America's cost of capital will start to go up, implying that access to capital will tighten. Yields are going to continue to make higher-highs and higher lows until consensus gets realistic.


THE M3: STARWORLD AND MACAU REAL ESTATE

The Macau Metro Monitor. November 20th, 2009.

 


STARWORLD VIP ROOM TO CHANGE HANDS destination-macau.com

A press release from Asia Properties Inc., a Nevada-registered company listed on the Over-The-Counter exchange in the US, has revealed that an agreement has been reached for them to buy a majority share in the “casino VIP club” from Sing Hou.  DM had thought that these VIP rooms were operated by one of Macau six concessionaires and that gaming promoters, licensed by the DICJ, were remunerated by the concessionaires for bringing in customers. 

 

There is obviously a host of regulatory questions surrounding the ownership of a VIP room in Macau by a listed company that is not licensed as a gaming operator in either Nevada or Macau.  While some VIP rooms in Macau operate “cages” within their rooms, so the concessionaire does not know who it is that is playing, regulators have not yet acted.  DM wonders if a US-listed VIP room operator might be treated differently. 

 

 

 

REAL ESTATE AND CONSTRUCTION ON THE RISE AGAIN macaudailytimes.com.mo

After a slow second quarter, the real estate market seems to be back on track with sale and purchase results from the third quarter this year rising considerably.  According to information released by the Statistics and Census Service, 5,345 building units were purchased and sold at MOP8.98 billion in the third quarter – up by 44% and 96.3% sequentially quarter-over-quarter.  The majority, 3,681, were residential units amounting to MOP7.66 billion – up by 61.7% and 103.5% quarter-over-quarter. 


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.57%

JACK – IT’S JUST BAD

JACK’s 4Q09 6% same-store sales decline at its Jack in the Box concept came in significantly worse than my estimate, street expectations and management’s guidance of -2.5% to -4.5%.  Making matters worse, trends have deteriorated further with management forecasting a 10% same-store sales decline in fiscal 1Q10 based on trends in the first seven weeks of the quarter.  We have a seen significant slowdown in QSR trends, particularly at the concepts that have relatively more premium product offerings and relatively more geographic exposure to California.  To that end, maybe I should not be surprised by these results, but JACK’s underperformance did shock me because trends fell off so dramatically from the prior quarter, with comparable sales declining 500 bps on a 1-year basis and 270 bps on a 2-year average basis.  A -10% number in Q1 would imply another 245 bp sequential decline in 2-year average trends.

 

Like last quarter, management attributed the sales weakness to rising unemployment (12%-plus level in California) and increased industry discounting with the biggest fall off in trends continuing to stem from lower breakfast, side item, beverage and mid-tier priced sales.  Specifically, management thinks its sales suffered from its strategic decision to go off air with its new product news as the company allocated more advertising dollars to its value offerings, which according to management, were just not compelling enough.  In response to a question, management stated that BKC’s $1 double cheeseburger, which was launched nationally in October, could also be impacting JACK’s sales trends in the current quarter.

 

Going forward, management thinks it is extremely important to balance its advertising budget behind both its premium and value messages.  In this environment, it is somewhat surprising to think that more advertising behind premium offerings would help, which is concerning because even the significantly lower same-store sales guidance for full-year 2010 of -3% to -7% assumes a sequential improvement in 2-year average trends throughout the year from current Q1 trends. 

 

If the economic environment does not improve in the near-term, I have a hard time believing that premium offerings will drive traffic higher.  According to management, being more promotional and offering an increased number of value items are not helping either.  JACK was only on air with its value promotions and traffic has not improved in Q1.  And, management said that significant check erosion was responsible for the sequentially worse trends quarter to date.  This leaves the company in a difficult position.  Increasing value at the expense of average check only makes sense if it is getting more people in the restaurant.

 

JACK’s full-year 2010 guidance of 15%-16% restaurant level margins implies that margins will be flat to down 100 bps YOY despite the expected 3%-7% decline in same-store sales at Jack in the Box.  As I pointed out last week in reference to CKR, these operators cannot continue to hold margins (even considering current refranchising initiatives) with demand decreasing so significantly.  Keep in mind that food cost favorability will moderate and go away.  For reference, commodity costs were down about 5.5% in 4Q09 with beef and cheese down 17% and 31%, respectively.  This level of YOY commodity favorability drove food and packaging costs as a percentage of sales down 320 bps YOY in 4Q09 and helped to push restaurant level margins 220 bps higher on a YOY basis despite the 6% decline in comparable sales.  This favorable offset to declining sales will not last.

 

JACK – IT’S JUST BAD - JACK SSS 1Q10


SCVL/PSS: Yet Another Family Footwear Retailer Smokes

SCVL/PSS: Yet Another Family Footwear Retailer Smokes

 

There’s a lot of smoking going on these days in family footwear, a space we’ve favored for two quarters now. PSS is the way to play it. I am getting worried that hype is growing – but in the end it is still not in the numbers.

 

SCVL crushed the quarter on every item, lining up fundamentally to exceed the street and guidance for at least the next 2 quarters.

 

EPS: $0.59 vs. Street of $0.30 and Research Edge estimate of $0.40

                Comps were up an impressive +10%, or 2.5% on a 2-year trendline basis. Average price per pair sold was up 5.5%, footwear units sold were up 4.3%, and traffic was up 5.7%.  Favorable product mix shift towards high priced footwear such as boots and athletic helped drive the comp. This represents the largest comp number in the company’s history.  Comp guidance was low to mid single digit comp increases.

 

Revenue: +12.6%, massive sequential increase from -3.6% in Q2, 2yr jump as well. 

 

Stores: Opened 4 stores and closed 1.  Planning on closing 6 stores in 4Q, an increase of 1 store closure compared to previous guidance.  Stores are working efficiently as sales per square foot grew by 11% for 3Q which was the first positive growth point since Q2 07. 

 

Gross Margin: increased by 260bps to 29.8% compared to 27.2%.

  • The merchandise margin increased 110bp primarily as a result of:
    • Less clearance product (inventories +5% on 12.6% sales growth)
    • Strong boot sales, which carry a higher margin.
  • Buying, distribution and occupancy costs decreased 150bps, which was largely due to comp leverage.

SG&A: SG&A dollars grew by 6% but as a percent of sales fell by 150 bps, on top of a 3% decline in the year-ago quarter.  The increase in SG&A was due to additional costs related to incentive compensation and employee benefits and to a lesser degree advertising and added store operational costs.

 

Commentary from CEO Mark Lemond: "Our large selection of value priced name brand footwear resonated well with consumers resulting in the highest third quarter comparable store sales gain in the Company’s history. We experienced higher than expected sales of athletic product during the back-to-school season and very strong boot sales later in the quarter. Our 10.2% comparable store sales gain was significantly above our expectations for a low to mid single digit comparable store sales increase for the quarter. The sales increase, combined with a higher gross profit margin and controlled expenses, resulted in our second best quarterly earnings in the Company’s history."

 

We’re looking at $0.32 for Q4 versus the $0.03 that the street was estimating before the results were announced. 

 

Guidance:

Comps +3% to +5% in 4Q, which suggests -4.4% in underlying trend. CEO admitted on the call that guidance was very conservative.  {note, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt on good 4Q comps given that 3Q inventory was positive. We need to be weary of retailers whose inventory is TOO lean at end of 3Q. It there’s a snap in pos demand in holiday some companies might (ironically) be leaving money on the table.}

 

SCVL/PSS: Yet Another Family Footwear Retailer Smokes - SCVL SIGMA

 

SCVL/PSS: Yet Another Family Footwear Retailer Smokes - SCVL image 1

 

SCVL/PSS: Yet Another Family Footwear Retailer Smokes - Table for SCVL

 

SCVL/PSS: Yet Another Family Footwear Retailer Smokes - comp trends chart SCVL

 

 


TAKEAWAYS FROM G2E

Takeaways from G2E Las Vegas trip

 

 

All the manufacturers had impressive content, but I’m not sure anything we saw at the show will change ship shares IN THE NEAR TERM, grow the market, nor will good content change the fact that.

  • There aren’t many new facilities opening up in FY2010
  • None of the new domestic markets will really come to fruition in FY2010
  • Manufacturers are hopeful but have yet to see a real pick up in the replacement market

 

In the longer term we think that manufacturers are cognizant of the need to reach younger players and are attempting to reach that player through features like:

  • Skilled or the appearance of skilled gaming
  • More community elements to bring some of the excitement of table games to slots
  • Personalization
  • Greater use of sound and color

 

One of the trickiest things is figuring out whether the better content we saw this year will actually grow the market or just cause existing players to migrate away from older games they were playing.  I don’t have the answer but I think, in the short term, it’s very hard to grow the market in the current economy.

 

Most manufactures showed a large number of games which utilized past hit titles and added additional features to enhance level of excitement surrounding the game (bonusing, wheels, community features, tournaments etc).

 

More focus on participation games and more talk about bundling.

 

All the manufacturers had touch screen features that I thought were pretty cool.

 

What’s the difference between BYI’s iView DM and IGT’s Service Window?

  • To the player, these two “windows” look roughly the same and have the capability of providing the same services and applications.  The major difference is that BYI’s window has a bar across the bottom of the screen as well as a pop up on either the right or left side of the base game.  IGT allows each player to customize the look and feel of their service window and only comes across the left side of the monitor
  • To the operator there some major differences, IGT’s Service window is built into the game CPU so if it’s not a new AVP box or a new WMS box that comes with the built in feature you can’t add it.  BYI’s iVIEW DM is a standalone hard drive that sits on top of a game’s CPU.  This means that you can add the service window feature to any new or old video slot machine and while opening the box of an IGT or WMS game voids the warranty on the game we would wager that if operators really wanted to do this than IGT and WMS would probably need to work with them… we’ll wait and see what they do at Pechanga
  • IGT has developed a server window interface which will allow operators to get the service window on non-AVP IGT machines through the Next Gen hardware which will come to market in June 2010…. They are not currently developing a similar bridging solution for non-IGT games

 

New markets:

  • Illinois: shipping to this market should begin in Sept 2010.  IGT already has a distributor agreement signed as does WMS (Betson).  Aristocrat (ALL.AU) and BYI in negotiations with distributor
  • All the manufacturers are in talks with Italian concession holders.  We should see some shipments in FY 2010
  • Australia:  WMS is testing products that will address the ~ 130k club market, believe that IGT and WMS are addressing the smaller casino market (20k games)

 

Manufacturer highlights:

 

BYI:

 

For sale games:

  • BYI has a nice looking new Pro-series (alpha 2 cabinet) being launched this year
  • More than just one title for the V32 cabinet should translate into more traction in video sales
  • While the new reel product (replacing the aging S6000s) may have looked boring to the video player or investor, we heard some good feedback from the operators

Participation games:

  • The U-Spin game definitely stole the show for games that are going to be ready for commercialization within the next few quarters
  • Two-seater games “Meet in the Middle” and “Move around the Board
  • Digital Towers
  • Hot Shots Progressive with a wheel bonusing features

Future games (12 -18 months away):

  • The iVIEW Display manager was impressive.  Instead of a button panel, BYI has a touch screen panel that has the feel of an iPhone.  Players can customize the panel and have multiple options of how to initiate spins.  The new touch functionality will also allow them to introduce more “skilled based” games where players can “roll” balls etc.  Remember that BYI still has rights to the Atari library
  • Alpha 2 pro-series box – great graphics/sounds and touch functionality
  • BYI has a “MLD” like product – with LCD projection over curved glass behind an LCD screen.  This curved glass really creates a similar feel to traditional spinning reels - we expect that BYI will develop interesting transmissive overlays on the front screen in the coming months.  We believe that unlike IGT’s MLD, most operators who purchase this game will use it as a true substitute to reels

 

WMS:

 

WMS did a great job on content – big “wow” factor.  The company had obviously focused its R&D on growing the gaming market by appealing to that younger 30-50 yr old demographic.

 

WMS continued to rollout successful features like adaptive gaming, community gaming, and sensory emersion/“emotion” across more of their content and add more features to updated versions of successful franchises.

 

New franchises like “Lord of the Rings” and “Price is Right” were particularly impressive and had a number of “hooks” that provided the secret sauce to the success of “Wizard of Oz” and “Star Trek”.

 

Future games (12-18 months away)

  • WMS is still the only company that recognizes players no matter where they play, but now WMS is going to try to increase player/casino loyalty by allowing players to continue to learn about the game from home… basically tapping into that MMOE universe.  This should attract younger players, create enhanced player loyalty, venture into online “gaming”, without the wagering, by letting players to continue the game experience at home
  • WMS will be using the top LCS screen on top of base games to create new bonus game content (mega multipliers, community mega multipliers/Meta Screen, Winner’s Share) which they will sell on a fee per day per license basis in FY2011.  Should materially enhance the performance of base games…currently in trial at a few locations

 

 

IGT:

 

Consolidating platforms should boost cash flow generation as they refresh roughly 20k games every year.

 

The MLD/AVP platform is really letting IGT produce some great for sale product.

 

Introduced new participation product that uses some of WMS’s success of episodic gaming and player recognition.

 

New “Sex in the City” and “Cougar” titles were intriguing.

 

The 103/70 FT screens can be used to refresh participation content with minimal cost (“American Idol”, “Wheel of Fortune Spin”, “Wheel of Fortune Puzzle”).

 

“Skilled based” reel game with the joystick driven “star” bonus round that should appeal to the younger 30-50 crowd.

 

IGT is really utilizing and sharpening their MLD technology, we expect that they for an extra $3K many casinos will opt for the AVP MLD games vs the regular video product.  IGT is expecting that 25% of total game sales will be MLD in 2010; we wouldn’t be surprised if it’s even higher with the new bonus features and enhanced content/titles available on that platform.

 

IGT has something called “discovery gaming” which is similar to WMS’s adaptive gaming concept.  Discovery gaming isn’t truly server based – since the game will only recognize players at a particular facility.  IGT said it will take them roughly 24 months to become truly server based with this concept.  Discovery gaming will be featured on the “Quest for Lost City” game.

 

The multi-play (4 games occurring at the same time) and press and play features on many of IGT’s for sale titles were interesting. 


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