Of the many concerns surrounding the candidacy of Donald Trump, on top of most worry lists has been Trump's public statements on foreign policy.
In so many areas – nuclear proliferation, alliance relations, Iran, law of war, Russia – the new president's positions were dramatically outside the “left and right boundaries” of what had been at least a 70-year tradition of U.S. international discourse and conduct.
- Trying to comprehend Trump’s utterances was not unlike trying to interpret the biblical phrase from Paul’s writings in First Corinthians: “Seeing through a glass, darkly.”
- Yet, over the last 10 days, confirmation testimony by at least three of Trump's cabinet picks – Rex Tillerson, General Jim Mattis, and Rep. Mike Pompeo – cast useful light on the future direction of our 45th president’s foreign policy. The three cabinet appointees’ testimonies may not have been, in St. Paul’s words, a “face to face” revelation; but they were helpful.
What was said that “illuminated the glass?” Perhaps most importantly, a walk-back by Tillerson and Mattis from a Trump-induced precipice on nuclear proliferation.
Limiting the spread of nuclear weapons has always ranked towards the top of any president’s national security priorities; yet Mr. Trump’s comments during the campaign suggested that acquisition by Japan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia “would not be a bad thing.” Both Tillerson and Mattis rejected that -- unequivocally.
Next on the priority "worry list” has been U.S.-Alliance relationships, particularly in the wake of Trump's questioning last spring on NATO’s “Article V” collective defense guarantee. Again, though, Mr. Tillerson and General Mattis couldn’t have been clearer on the importance they attached to upholding this key element of our transatlantic relationship; Tillerson called Article V “inviolable,” and Mattis was equally emphatic.
Despite Trump once again disparaging NATO in his interview last week with Bild and The Times of London, the Baltic states and Poland especially took some comfort from the Mattis/Tillerson words.
"Team Trump" on Iran & Russia
And on Iran, Trump promised to "tear up" the nuclear deal on Day 1; that pledge is now history. Even before last week's testimony, Mr. Trump was hedging on the tear-up. Both Pompeo and Mattis, while disappointed in the deal itself, stressed enforcement, not rejection; Tillerson agreed.
Only on Russia there was a discordant note amongst the three.
- General Mattis in particular was emphatic in calling out the dangers;
- Pompeo was close behind.
- Tillerson was softer, clearly sensitive to his new boss's feelings on Putin.
Hence, for Russia in particular, post-hearings, we are still "seeing darkly."
Bottom Line
Apart from the substantive clarifications on these topics from the three nominees, there was also an encouraging “tonal uplift.” Each came across as serious, knowledgeable, and engaged with legislators. There was no arrogance; indeed, the three were infinitely courteous, even deferential, despite some hard-hitting inquiries from individual Senators.
In the end, the shaping and execution of U.S. foreign and security policy will be the president’s, as spokesman Sean Spicer bluntly reminded the media in the wake of the testimonies. Yet the appearance of the three nominees has clearly calmed at least a portion of our electorate – as well as some key allies, whom we will need by our side when the first foreign policy surprise engulfs the White House.
Click here to watch General Christman and Keith McCullough discuss Trump-era geopolitics last week, please get in touch with us for a replay.
