This information on Amazon's business will be absolutely critical to my investment process across retail for 2017.
If you can’t stand Amazon’s lack of disclosure about its category presence and market share in everything from Grocery to Sporting goods to Home, we’re going to do it for you. Black book on Tuesday January 17th at 1pm EST. I might be a bit biased, but it’s gonna be a killer deck.
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Confirmation Number: 13651659
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Call on the Stock. To be clear up front, I buy into the $25 in EPS call for AMZN, but am short side today. The reality is that Bezos has to print earnings soon. Sure, he can go against Turner in bidding for rights to stream NBA games in order to lock in consumers so they buy Air Diffusers and Coffins (yes, I’m serious) online – and is investing massively to do so. But imagine that day when sales ONLY come in +18% and share gain in the US slows by half a bp (a la Nike). I don’t want to be near the long side on that day. There will be a time to buy AMZN with impunity. Not today.
This deck, however, applies to the rest of retail even more than it does AMZN. We conducted an extensive (3rdparty) survey to drill down AMZN shopping patterns by consumers across all demographic groups. The data is in, and we’re crunching it today. All in, we’ve got about 128,000 rows of data delving into the following on-line shopping (AMZN) patterns (and then some)…
- Consumer demo (by Prime vs non-prime)
- Credit scores
- Different cards consumer have in their wallets
- Where each type of consumer (high, mid, low) is spending on Amazon, including frequency.
- Deep dive on categories, price point by category, and which other sites people are shopping by category.
- What categories still offer up the biggest opportunity for AMZN…where is the competitive set infested to the point where they can defend?
- Usage of AmazonMusic, AmazonDrive, Streaming, etc…
This is information that I absolutely need to have to have any edge on market share risk/opportunity online – and 2017 will be critical given that online spending is gaining share at a higher rate off of a higher base. As always, we’re opening up our process to HedgeyeRetail subscribers. Ask your Hedgeye Salesperson about accessing the raw data.